Friday, September 4th 2015
BAYLOR
NEPOTISM
One of the great things about sports as opposed to almost all other areas of life is that nepotism doesn't play a a major role in determining who gets a job. It doesn't matter who your parents are or how much money they have. If you can't hit a baseball you're not going to be playing for the New York Yankees. Unfortunately off the field that same principle doesn't hold true and this potentially spells trouble for Baylor. Longtime offensive coordinator Phil Montgomery left to become the head coach at Tulsa and while Art Briles gets all the credit the loss of Montgomery will really hurt them. So what great mind has Briles tapped to be the next leader of the Bears' offense? You guessed it.....his son Kendal (pictured above).
Of course it's possible Kendal could be successful but to me his hiring is a major red flag (see Lane Kiffin, Kyle Shanahan, Brian Schottenheimer, Mike Shula, etc)
BRYCE WAS NICE
Not only does Baylor lose their successful offensive coordinator and replace him with the coach's son but they lose their star quarterback as well. Bryce Petty was drafted in the 4th round by the New York Jets and his absence will hurt Baylor more than people realize. Baylor's recent success has been fueled by stars at the QB position such as Petty and Robert Griffin III. They just aren't the same team without a star signal caller behind center. I believe the oddsmakers/betting markets incorrectly assume you can drop anyone into Baylor's system and they won't miss a beat. Plus I'm not sold on new quarterback Seth Russell who didn't receive scholarship offers from major programs out of high school. Russel put up decent numbers as a backup last year in 85 attempts but a lot of those came at the start of the year against cream puff opponents. And Even if you COULD drop any quarterback into Baylor's system and they would be successful this isn't the same system without Phil Montgomery.
NOT ELITE
Baylor is currently thought of as an elite team (they are ranked 3rd in the country in one college football preview magazine) but I'm not so sure that should be the case. Baylor simply doesn't have the same level of athletes that other programs who are considered elite do. They won 11 games last season but 2 of those (TCU and Texas Tech) could have easily been losses and they played a weak non conference schedule.
RETURNING THE WRONG STARTERS
Usually when a team returns all four starters from the secondary it's a positive. This is not the case with Baylor who ranked 99th in the country in yards per pass attempt allowed. I think this will especially hurt them against SMU (more on that to come).
SMU
BET THE JOCKEY NOT THE HORSE
SMU made a great decision this off season when they hired Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris to be their new head coach. Morris' up tempo offense will breath new life into the Mustangs. SMU is undervalued in general even without factoring in the Morris hire. Check out this quote from an American Athletic Conference Assistant: "It was a tough deal with the interim coach coming in at mid-year and they weren't winning. I thought they were probably better than their record indicated; it was just a bad situation."
IF IT DOESN'T FIT, YOU MUST ACQUIT
Unlike the famous glove from the infamous trial SMU's quarterback Matt Davis is a perfect fit for Morris' offense. Morris actually recruited Davis out of high school while he was offensive coordinator at Clemson. (Morris signed with Texas A&M and later transferred to SMU). A lot of times when a new head coach takes over a program it will take time before they have players who fit their system but that isn't the case with Davis. This is a huge advantage for SMU. Davis is an experienced QB who will fit perfectly with Morris' quick tempo no huddle offense that likes to take shots downfield.
RETURNING THE RIGHT STARTERS
SMU returns 4 of 5 starters on the offensive line. Having experienced offensive linemen is a major plus in college football especially during the first year of a new administration as it facilitates a smoother transition. (Though to be fair Baylor brings back most of its offensive line as well.)
I LIVE IN A VAN (MALONE) DOWN BY THE RIVER
Another reason why I like SMU is their new defensive coordinator Van Malone. From 2012-2014 Malone was the cornerbacks coach at Oklahoma State so Malone is intimately familiar with Baylor and their passing attack (their strength) having faced them each of the past 3 seasons. This is a big edge for SMU in my opinion. Last season Oklahoma State picked off Petty twice and held him to 262 yards. In 2013 Oklahoma State handed Baylor their sole regular season loss allowing only 17 points. And in 2012 Oklahoma State limited Baylor to only 1 passing TD. It's an advantage for SMU with so much time to prepare for Baylor having a coach who has recent experience doing just that.
CONCLUSION
We have a classic buy low/sell high situation on our hands here with undervalued SMU and overvalued Baylor. All signs point to an SMU cover at this number.
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATION: SMU +35.5