Well, probably not, but solid ideas on most of them. I was going to title this thread "biggest bet of my life" so more people would go "WTF" and look, but there are plenty of people that do like to read. This is also for anyone that hasn't actually done the work yet. Izzo-on, it's almost CBB time.
Have to lean a fair bit to Navy. Irish in a tough spot, although they could still be in the Championship picture since FSU won. However, this is the second of three straight road games (at Arizona State next week) while this is obviously Navy's GOY. Navy's only loss by more than 14 was the opener to Ohio State, so Navy may well get added.
The sexy picks in the V-Tech game are BC/under. Any good numbers on the total are kind of shot, and this may well be a weather-dependent game. Could be quite windy. Given that, neither team can throw the ball anyway, but I do like V-Techs' defense better and they've had extra time. With BC's upcoming schedule (Louisville/FSU) I may well wait for -3 and perhaps go Hokies here, or ML them.
Obviously IMO recreational money on East Carolina as expected, but I'm not enamored with ECU's defense at all. Temple's stock is pretty low right now, but they've played two tough teams on the road, so IMO at +7.5 the value is clearly with the Owls.
The huge line move to Uconn is probably warranted, especially given that the total is now at only 39 in places. Without over-thinking this, if the oddsmakers want to give me 25% of the projected points in the game, I would take them. UCF's stock is high, and they don't suck, but this will be their first road game since October 2nd, and it's not like they are an offensive juggernaut.
I'd like NOT to take Syracuse, but they need three of the last four games to be Bowl eligible. They simply have to win this game to have any shot of that happening. NC State needs two more wins for six, and has had two weeks off. I don't agree with the move up in the total, and at 52 have a significant lean to the under.
Duke is 6-1 having only lost to Miami, and the significant thing there is that they held Miami to 22 points. I actually like Duke here if for no other reason than the fact that Pittsburgh's defense has really not played an offense capable of scoring other than G-Tech, and that didn't go well.
Miami's stock is super-high after the public games they've played, and honestly I can't find a really good reason not to back them, even with the huge line move. They've got FSU next, which would be a reason, but that game is in two weeks. North Carolina's defense just sucks too bad for me to think about those very generous points.
Have to wonder how Maryland rebounds from the Wisconsin thrashing, and I think they just might. They HAVE won three road games already this season. I know that Penn State gave Ohio State all they wanted, but IMO that may be an isolated case. This is the same Penn State team that lost to Michigan, which nobody does. The total coming under the key number of 48 could be somewhat telling, but I don't trust Penn State's offense to build a big enough lead to not let Maryland keep it close or cover late.
I just don't get App State being a two touchdown favorite. They are not the same App State team we're accustomed to seeing with Jerry Moore on the sidelines. They lost to Liberty, at home. I know Georgia State isn't very good, but they can throw the ball around the yard. Downside here is that this could well be a huge wind-game, so probably best to pass. However, 69 is simply a ton of points to expect with two relatively inept offenses.
Doubtful that I could touch the Air Force/Army game. Obviously people liking the Falcons enough to lay the -3 on the road, or they hate Army enough to do that. However, I do like Jeff Monken and this IS only Army's fourth home game. They did beat Buffalo and Ball State (I know) at home, so gun to the head, I'll take Army.
There is just no way I can lay -15 on the road with CMU. Not after they lost to Ball State and barely beat Buffalo. I do know how bad EMU can be but this is another game where if you simply look at the projected number of points (47 or so) and they want to give us almost one-third of them, I would have to think they're worth taking.
I really do like Iowa's defense and being at home that could be enough to convince me to bet on them. The caveat here is that Northwestern has been playing more to their potential and they've had two weeks off. I just don't like their offense enough to trust on the road, and think Iowa, although the more square side, might well be the right one.
As far as the Nebraska game goes, I am a little surprised the line is still only -23.5, but, given the fact that Purdue has been putting up points on the road and against the Spartans, I do think they hang. They've had two weeks off and if Nebraska allowed Rutgers to score 24, I like Purdue and the over.
Not sure I want any part, either way, of a 35 point spread. It's probably not enough for me to take Kansas and clearly I am not laying five touchdowns. If I thought Kansas could put any points on the board I'd look at the over. The one-loss Baylor team does need to make statements, and they can. I wonder, though, about them having a date with Oklahoma in Norman next week. Pass or Baylor.
Western Michigan has a great record, but they really haven't beaten a decent team yet and gave up 38 to Ball State on the road. That is enough for me to look the other way. I know Miami's defense isn't very good, but they can put up points, so if the weather is decent I do like this over a fair bit.
Probably going to take a pass and just watch the Auburn game. The trendy side is surely the War Eagles, but how much of that is because Ole Miss lost at one of the toughest places to play last week (LSU). Auburn has a brutal schedule and they gave up far too many against South Carolina last week for my liking, even if it was a semi-look-ahead game. I'll look to perhaps back the Rebels ML here. Their defense (Ole Miss') IS that good.
Missouri has indeed been playing a little better, but I am not giving Kentucky 8 points. Stoops has done a great job, as has Pinkel, but how seriously will Missouri take them. The Wildcats just played Mississippi State tough (at home) and were crushed at LSU, but they've got to think they can win this game, and anytime a team thinks they can, they can. If Missouri could only put up 24 on Vanderbilt, the play here is Kentucky, IMO.
I am not sold on Arkansas and think they've got to be getting tired of "almost" winning. They haven't played a road game since September 13th at Texas Tech! If that line goes to -10 I will take the other side. The Bulldogs haven't had a close game at home, and I know they could relax, but with T-Martin next week, I doubt it. No chance of taking Arkansas for me.
La Tech has been playing (winning) pretty well, but Southern Miss, UTEP, and UTSA are not the elite teams of ANY conference, so without really looking too far, give me the +7. Any team that's averaging 45 points per game (Western Kentucky) getting a touchdown is enough for me.
Since Texas A & M has nothing to prove anymore (it's been proven) and they've got a game against Auburn next week, I'll seriously consider UL Monroe here. I don't care that the Aggies have had a rest period after the 'Bama boatrace. ULM has played at Kentucky and at LSU so this is probably no big deal. It's doubtful I could back their lack of offense here, but I could perhaps fade the Aggies lack of defense. However, not a game I have a real strong opinion on.
The cool side to be on is obviously MTSU over BYU and I can't say I don't agree. I do think that maybe it's gone a bit too far (the line), but there is just no way I can back BYU these days. Perhaps this move is an over reaction to what everyone saw on National TV against Boise State, but MTSU gave up 31 to Southern Miss, so it's hard for me to get behind a brutally stale number at this point. I'd play the MTSU ML before I did that.
I figured the Florida-Georgia number was too high and an over reaction to what we've seen UGA do without Gurley as well as what we've seen UF do, period. And now it's down to -10 or so. I know personally what a rivalry this is, and with the total plummeting, probably because of really sh*tty weather, at least wind/cold, I MAY have to consider the Gators. Far too late to think about the under and kudos to anyone that got the 56 or so there. Probably a better game to watch than bet on, given the fact that the good lines are long gone and I was late to the +13 party on Florida.
SoCal is back on the trendy team to bet on, so perhaps it's time to take the other side. As much as I do not like Mike Leach, every now and then his teams pull something out of their ass, and aside from the SoCal win at Stanford against a team we now know isn't what we thought they were, they've not played well on the road, really. Same team that lost to Boston College. A big total that's coming down that I might be inclined to disagree with and take the over.
With Oregon finally being healthy on the offensive line and perhaps Mariotta getting the public game that could keep him in the Heisman race, I do lean Ducks here. Stanford has trouble scoring. But, even though there's no way Oregon is looking past such a huge rival, they DO have a game at Utah next week, which in the big picture is a more telling "nationally" game. Even for an Oregon game, that total might be too high, and if I can eventually get 56, I will consider the under.
The Sooners now have two losses and not a lot to play for, which is why I MIGHT consider them here. Big Game Bob is fade material in Big Games, and this isn't one. Since Iowa State can't stop anyone, I can see this game getting over the number, but I will admit to not having looked at the weather in detail.
Anyone but Bill Snyder coaching this team and I would be all over the Cowboys here for the simple fact that K-State has TCU next week, the West Virginia (on a Thursday) in the next two weeks, both on the road. They've also got a season-ending game AT Baylor. However, it's Bill Snyder.With the pressure off Oklahoma State, maybe they can just play football. The total has lost too much value to play the under, which was my initial thought. In the end, I have no really good feel for this one.
People are lining up to face Michigan, so maybe it's time to TAKE them. They have played "better" lately and need to win three of four to make a Bowl game and the Hoosiers just don't have enough defense to back on the road. I know they're the sexy pick but if you made me, at -6.5, I might think about Michigan at home. Tough one, and the total not moving (yet) isn't giving away anything.
Both UVA and G-Tech are teams both the sharps and the public have been all over. I don't use the term wiseguys, because true wiseguys used to assassinate people. These days that's just the term for people that are sharper than recreational bettors and have more money. At home, it's hard not to like G-Tech against probably a deflated UVA team. Since Tech put up a million points on the road against a reasonable Pitt team, this line may be a bit high, especially seeing the slight drop in the total. Tech's defense isn't THAT great, so with the proverbial gun-to-the-head, I would have to take the Cavaliers here, believe it or not.
As always, give me Idaho in the Kibble Dome (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kibbie_Dome) with three scores against anyone. Well, almost anyone.
While I am resting, I'll share TeamRankings.com (s) Top 3 plays this week, as we did last week. I am not sure if I am in agreement (yet) and don't mess (usually) with huge spreads. Most, if not all, of their work is totally stat-based, but often times a reasonable comparison for me later in the week when I've done most of the work:
Day | Status | TR Pick | Opp/Game | Confidence | Odds | Similar Games | Decision Tree | Power Rating |
11/1 |
3:30pm |
340 Nebraska -23.5 |
vs Purdue |
|
57.5% |
PURD 50.9% |
PURD 50.9% |
PURD +1.0 |
11/1 |
8:00pm |
403 Illinois +28.5 |
at Ohio State |
|
57.5% |
ILL 56.3% |
OHST 50.8% |
ILL +11.1 |
11/1 |
4:00pm |
342 Baylor -35.5 |
vs Kansas |
|
55.6% |
BAY 60.6% |
KANS 52.5% |
KANS +9.7 |
I watched exactly one South Alabama game this season and it was the game they struggled mightily to beat Georgia State at home. But, what concerns me is that ULL struggled at home to GSU as well, and allowed 40 points at home last week. I can't call this one either way, but ULL is clearly the more balanced team, so I could use them in a ML parlay, but not laying -7.
Me and the rest of the wiseguys clearly don't see Vanderbilt being a double-digit favorite to anyone, even ODU. At the current line of +7.5 there's probably some value left, but a team that's only beaten UMass and Chareston Southerm (barely) isn't getting my money. With probable wind in Tennessee, I understand why that total is dropping, too.
Rice is on a bit of a roll after the early C-USA stumble against Old Dominion, but if you look at who they've beaten, it's a pretty sh*tty list of teams. I always look to back home underdogs, and although FIU has trouble scoring (hence under here, IMO) they play enough defense to stay well within the number and they've have two weeks to prepare. They've played Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Marshall, so Rice is surely a step-down in class here.
The left side of my brain says to take Cal here since OSU is just so mistake-prone and their defense is terrible, and Cal averages 41 points per game. Then the left side says that Cals' defense is probably worse. This is only the Beavers fourth home game, and they DID give Utah a game. My issue here is with Cal. They are one of those teams that when you think they won't, they do. And of course vice-versa. So, I don't know that the total coming down isn't a setup for later and the over might a play.
At first glance, how can you not take the 12th ranked team (Arizona) with a TD, against anyone, really. They've already won at Oregon and at Washington State, so two road conference wins can't be overlooked. UCLA has the potential to win-out, given that their last two games against USC and Stanford are both at home. Given that only the blowout over Arizona State was the only time UCLA has won by more than 8, it's tough to lay a TD here. However, it's 7 for a reason and IMO the total is artificially high, I think.
Before the season would anyone have imagined Colorado State being a touchdown favorite on the road. I would not have. But, they're 7-1 with the lone loss coming to and at Boise State. I'd be lying if I didn't say I wasn't a little concerned that they allowed 40 points at home to an awful Wyoming offense last week. SJSU has indeed played some decent teams, but they don't pass they eyeball test and in fact they've done a ton of travelling, playing in Annapolis last week. So, this game is probably off my radar. I do have a slight inclination to take the under here, but want 56 if I can get it.
Again, as in the Arizona game, it's tough not to like Utah with points. They know how to finish games and have a very good defense, which is almost enough for me. I am not worried about them playing Oregon next week, and I am worried about ASU playing Notre Dame. I know this is a conference game and the Irish is not, but it's Notre Dame. The total wanting, at this point, to come down is telling me to take the points or pass the game. Obviously I'd want +7 or nothing.
I am not sure why that total in the TCU/WVU game still sits at 70 with wind expected to be quite a factor. It's tough not to like both sides here and even tougher to not want to hop on WVU as a home dog. I can't argue that, other than to say in these games it often comes down to the best coach and the best QB, and honestly TCU probably has both, and the better defense. Perhaps a more fun game to watch that put money on, although many people will regardless.
Looking at Houston's body of work, I am not sure how the Cougars can be big favorites on the road. Yes, I know South Florida struggles to score, which is an understatement, but you don't have to go back too far to see how tough they played East Carolina at home, and have played two road games since. Without a doubt it's the Bulls or nothing, and under, IMO.
On paper I suppose Florida Atlantic is the better team, but because they're only offering +4 here, and given that they'll give +4 for the home team, I might be inclined to take UAB. It would probably be a defacto fade of FIU just because they're less predictable, but since this is the third straight road game for the Blazers and FAU might feel pretty good about not getting embarrassed by Marshall, I have to go back to the beginning here and pass. I just can't take a team that's 100th in points for and 112th in points against (FAU).
It would not surprise me if Southern Miss beat UTEP at all. Obviously there's a built in factor for the fact that people think So Miss sucks (they do) but who is UTEP, exactly. They allow points per game and have one of the worst passing attacks in CFB.
UNLV is almost favored here. Interesting. I guess that means their two wins by a total of four points is worth something, or that New Mexico is that bad. Not so sure about either and probably the most boring game on the card IMO. Least turnovers wins (it usually does) and the fact that New Mexico was able to put up 31 on Air Force on the road last week might mean I could take them. However, that total opening at 54 and going to 60 is really saying GTF away from this one and that UNLV may be the right side after all.
New Mexico State can't stop anyone, but they have been at least playing a little better of late. They did play Georgia Southern tough at home before these last two road losses (at sh*tty teams). Texas State is just a very balanced team that has already won two road games, so it's tough to get behind this home dog. Not sure I agree with the total going to 60, either.
I wish I had bigger gonads, because I don't like Ohio State's defense a lot and Illinois can at least score. Ohio State's stats are clearly padded against a weak (what's new for Urban Meyer) schedule and they've got Michigan State next week, on the road, meaning in this spot there is no chance of betting on a game I need my team to win by more than four touchdowns.
Wyoming really is that bad and Fresno really is not that good. Wyoming has started to score a little and they HAVE played Oregon and Michigan State. Fresno played a great non-conference schedule as well, and has had extra time, but to lay more than two scores with a team that's allowed over 35 points a game just isn't going to happen.
I like the Aztecs better on the road, and love Rocky Long's defense. With that in mind, given that SDSU can't score, I think this is a very close game. Nevada has had two weeks and was in Hawaii last, which is always tough for me to back this time of year. But, Nevada needs two more wins to get to six and this should (based on their schedule) have to be one of them. So, reluctantly I would lay the points, but like the under a fair bit better.
Ah, the Hawaii late night bail out game. Utah State being favored on the road (in Hawaii?) is probably too much for me to comprehend. USU hasn't had the rest period that the Rainbows have and from a betting standpoint may still be living off the win at BYU. Yes, Hawaii struggles to make first downs, but they have a reasonable defense and have at least been "in" most games they've played. I thought I'd like the under until I saw it opened at 43 and has already come DOWN. My guess is the late night bail out money will push this total back over, so waiting to place the big bet on the under should wait til 10:58 EST tomorrow night. Out.