Well on to Saturday we go after i went 3-2 on Thursday and Friday. I will have more in the morning. BOL Everyone
TOP PLAYS
3 UNIT PLAYS
LOUISIANA TECH -7 over Western Kentucky: The Bulldogs are 5-3 on the year with all 5 wins coming by 7 points or more and they have gone 4-0 in Conference USA this year so far and have outscored their opponents by 23 ppg in conference play. Western Kentucky grabbed a 66-51 win over ODU last week, but a closer look shows that that should have been a much closer game as WKU got a 96 yrd INT return for a TD with ODU going in. That's a 14 point swing. The Hilltoppers have a very good offense, but they can't stop anyone, as they have allowed 41.1 ppg and 549.9 ypg on the year, including allowing 46 ppg and 617 ypg in their last 3 games. Ouch. Defense is where the Bulldogs have a HUGE edge, allowing just 350.8 ypg and 25.9 ypg, plus they are 27th in the nation in defensive yards per play (4.9), while WKU is 124th in that department (6.8). Let's go even further. La Tech has allowed just 16 ppg in league play and have scored 38.8 ppg, while WKU has allowed 47 ppg in league play. Very hard to see WKU coming up with enough stops to keep this close. Louisiana Tech by 14 plus here.
Purdue/ Nebraska Over 61: This one should be fun to watch. This Purdue offense has really come alive of late, averaging 447.3 ypg and 35.7 ppg in their last 3 games. In their last 2 games they put up 31 points on a very good Michigan state Defense and 38 points on a solid Minnesota defense, so I can see them getting at least 24 points in this one vs a Nebraska defense that allowed 24 points last week to Rutgers. The Purdue defense has been bad all year, allowing 31.3 ppg overall, 32 ppg on the road and 37 ppg in their last 3 games. This is a bad defense and will surely have their struggles in keeping down a strong Nebraska offense that has averaged 551.2 ypg and 42.8 ppg at home this year. I don't see how they are held below 42 points in this one. This game could very well put 70 points on the board.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Arizona +6.5 over UCLA: Just too many points for the Bruins to be laying in this one, especially for a team that is 1-7 ATS this year and 0-8 in their last 8 home games vs a team seeking revenge. The Bruin offense is solid and we know they can score some points, but their defense has had their struggles this year, especially vs the pass where they rank 105th in the nation. That bodes well for the Cats in this one as they bring in the 8th best passing attack in the nation. Arizona's pass defense has also struggled this year, but Hundley has been inconsistent and is still playing behind a weak OL. Both defenses are bad in this game, but I do feel that Arizona has a bit more offense than a Bruins team that needed double OT to defeat the Buffaloes last week. Last year the game was a 5 point win by the Bruins, and while I expect this one to be just as close, I also look for the outright upset by Arizona here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS GAME: College football favorites off an overtime win who allow 30 or more PPG on the season are 12-1 ATS since 1996 if they scored 36 or more points in the win and they are facing a .400 or greater opponent. (Taken From Playbook)
Auburn +2 Over MISSISSIPPI: The Ole Miss Rebels are in the Midst of a strong season, but then again so are the Auburn Tigers. This game will come down to the offenses I feel and that is where the Tigers have a huge edge. Last week the Ole Miss offense was able to muster just 7 points vs a very tough LSU defense, while the Tigers put up 41 points on LSU. Their offense is very tough to defend and they will find away to score their fair share of points vs this tough Ole Miss defense. The Auburn defense is nothing special, but they do allow just 20.5 ppg and Ole Miss still has a rather weak offense. The Rebels will have to outscore the Tigers and they just don't have enough firepower to do that with. Sealing the deal is the fact that the Tigers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a S.U. win, while the Rebels are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games in November.
KANSAS STATE -12.5 over Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State is really a young team and its starting to show now that they are in the heart of their Big 12 schedule. In the last 2 games the Cowboys have put up just 19 points and have allowed 76 points. They are 3-2 in the big 12, but their 3 wins were vs Iowa State, Kansas and Texas Tech, which have a combined 1-12 mark in the Big 12. Now they will be playing a hot Kansas State squad that needs big impressive wins in their their hopes of getting into the 4 team playoff at the end of the year. The Cowboys can't score right now and KSU has allowed just 19.3 ppg on the year. I just don't see OSU coming in with enough points to keep this one close.
BEST OF THE REST
TCU/ West Virginia Under 71: This game features two high powered offenses, but i can see some defense being played here, plus there is bad weather expected for this game. TCU has been putting up video game numbers of late, but I feel that the West Virginia defense can slow them down here. After allowing 45 points to Oklahoma, West Virginia has now allowed just 21.3 ppg in their last 4 games and the defense should have the advantage here of the TCU offense, especially on a sloppy field and in high wind conditions like is expected for this game. The West Virginia offense can also score plenty and TCU has no defense right now, but the Mountaineer offense will also be handcuffed by the weather. Really had to see this one be a full shootout out.
North Carolina +14.5 over MIAMI: This is just too many points for a mediocre Miami team to be giving a North Carolina squad that can score on anyone in the country. North Carolina can’t stop many people, but I see them coming up with enough stops here to keep this one from turning into a rout. The Dog is 8-1 ATS the last 9 in the series, while Miami is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs the ACC. Miami by no more than 10 here.
Notre Dame/ Navy Over 54.5: The Midshippmen defense has been bad this year and showed it last week by allowing a below average San Jose State squad to put up 31 points on them. Now they face an Irish offense that has been the best that Kelly has had here so far, putting up 33.4 ppg. Notre Dame has allowed just 19.1 ppg, but thy have struggled on that side of the ball of late, allowing 29.3 ppg in their last 3 games. The last 3 in this series has average 67.3 ppg and I fully expect this one to be played in the 60s as well.
Utah State/ Hawaii Under 42: This Utah State team is now down to their 4th string QB and their offense wan't all that great to begin with prior to the injuries. The Aggies did put up 34 points on a bad UNLV defense last week, but they will be taking on a tougher Hawaii defense plus Utah State has averaged just 17.3 ppg on the road this year. The Rainbow Warriors have had problems scoring all year, as they have averaged just 20.6 ppg and will be taking on the toughest defense they will have faced so far, in a Utah State defense that has allowed just 21.9 ppg on the year and are 4th in the nation vs the run, allowing just 88.9 ypg on the ground. The Under is 20-6 in Aggies last 26 games following a S.U. win and 5-1 in Hawaii's last 6 overall. Very hard to see many points in this one.
10 Point Teaser: Kansas State -2.5 & Wisconsin -3.5 & Utah +16.5
Boston College/ Virginia Tech Under 41
EASTERN MICHIGAN +15 Over Central Michigan
Air Force -3 over ARMY
10 Point Teaser: UCF/ UConn Under 51 & Middle Tennessee +13.5 & Georgia/ Florida Under 58
10 Point Teaser: Georgia -1 & Ohio State -18.5 & Notre Dame -4
OREGON -7.5 Over Stanford
10 Point Teaser: Ohio State -18.5 & Notre Dame -4 & Arkansas +20
CFB 2014
Top Plays Overall 30-30-1 (-11.6 Units)... 4 Unit 1-3-0 (-9.2 Units)
Top Play Totals 18-20-0 (-14.1 Units)... Power Angle Plays 4-1-0 (+9.7 Units)... Top Play Teasers 2-2-0 (-0.6 Units)
Best Of The Rest Plays Overall 64-61-2 (-6.2 Units)
Best Of The Rest Totals 34-27-1 (+7.4 Units)... Best Of The Rest Teasers 14-21-0 (-20.4 Units)