I just cannot figure this Line out at ND -14. Sagarin has ND -24 on a Neutral Field, which is pretty much what they are playing on. The ND coaches and players are still in a foul mood over the "loss" to FSU, and poor Navy is likely to be the recipient of that wrath.
The only way I can begin to rationalize that number is that ND beat Navy by 4 points last year in South Bend. You have to understand what happened in that game. First, ND's offense is night and day better than last year, with Golson at QB instead of Rees. In Golson's first CFB game in 2012 - he led ND to a 40 point victory over Navy on a neutral field - putting up 50 points, and Golson is twice as good as he was then. Moreover, ND's defense was riddled with injuries last year and there is a history of their incurring injuries to Navy's infamous cut-blocking. So ... not only were they short-handed on defense, but they played a very soft, conservative style of defense against Navy, which allowed Navy to run the ball pretty freely, where they seemed more concerned about not having any more injuries. The game also came during a dead stretch of the schedule where there was no particular motivation on ND's side.
In stark contrast - ND is very, very deep on defense right now. Also, they have been developing a new hybrid LB of sorts - a lighter faster, strong safety type for certain schemes, which should do well against the Navy Option. The last time ND was this motivated against Navy was 2011, coming off an embarrassing loss in Kelly's first year - 2010. Notre Dame won that game 56-14. When ND is healthy and has their first stringers and is motivated - they can destroy Navy. 2011 - 42 points. 2012 - 40 points. Last year they were not healthy, were not motivated after consecutive 40+ victories and did not have their first string QB.
This year - ND is very highly motivated - given Committee rankings snub, "loss" to FSU and bad performance against Navy last year. ND has offensive weapons that will overwhelm Navy and they are going to attack the Navy Option and will be in the Navy backfield all day. Notre Dame held both FSU and Stanford to 50 yards rushing, and they may pitch a shut-out against Navy.
Sagarin says 24 but the margin should be comfortably over 30 and probably back to 40s. The 14 point line makes less than no sense.