10/25 12:30 PM CF (121) MISSISSIPPI STATE at (122) KENTUCKY
FREE PICK: (122) KENTUCKY +13.5
Let’s leave no doubt that I think Mississippi State is completely legit and the Bulldogs definitely have a realistic chance of making the inaugural four-team playoff this season. But even the best teams have bad scheduling spots and I consider this to be exactly that for Dan Mullen’s red hot entry.
This isn’t an opinion, it’s a fact. About the worst thing that can happen for an unbeaten team once the midway point of the season has been reached is a bye week. That might not seem logical on the surface, but the numbers don’t lie, and unbeaten road teams with rest have a tendency to struggle.
I think there’s a rationale for this taking place. First, the bye week can be a momentum breaker for a red hot team. It’s also an opportunity for the players to enjoy a heavy dose of hero worship on campus, while also dreaming about that pot of gold that’s waiting at the end of the proverbial rainbow. Don’t discount pressclippingitis as a potential distraction as well.
The aforementioned potholes have gotten the best of teams far more used to the spotlight than Mississippi State. This is a great story unfolding in Starkville, but it’s also very unexpected and brand new. So my sense is that as dominant as the Bulldogs have been, they could be ultra-vulnerable to having their collective heads in the clouds.
Kentucky got absolutely crushed last Saturday. The Wildcats are now being looked upon as little more than a formality win for Mississippi State by virtually all of the TV talking heads. I see that making Kentucky more dangerous. The no respect angle will be in play in Lexington all week in practice and off the disaster at Baton Rouge, this is also a redemption game for the Wildcats.
I can’t see Kentucky being quite good enough to pull the upset here. But I do think they’re good enough to make this a very scary Saturday for the heavy favorite. The Wildcats are 5-0 at home, including a nice win against South Carolina, and I believe that should eliminate the intimidation factor. The home team needs to get last week’s misfire out of its heads in a hurry, so a good start here is important. If Kentucky falls down early they could get rolled by the Bulldogs.
But the bottom line for me is that there’s a clear and irrefutable track record of big favorites failing in this specific scenario, and I feel that could well take place here. Kentucky in the plus two-TD neighborhood is very playable.
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My college football season has been a winning one, but a cold start to the weekend - so you get to take advantage with especially deep discounts on Saturday.