After looking deeper into it I would say you are right!
Arkansas St. -2.5
Those meetings of mid range teams can be hectic and lack a logic at times but truth of the matter is- Arkansas St. is a better football team than LA.Lafayette! Take the road team in this one! Road team is 4-1 ATS on last 5 meetings
Somehow this pick feels really strong...more you look into numbers and into logic.