Analysis: I could make a case for this one to be a 3*, too, but not gonna do it. Too many points. Clemson was simply destroyed IN CLEMSON last year by FSU. Obviously we all saw what Clemson was NOT able to do in the 2H against UGA, but they've had two weeks to fix that problem, as a drubbing of SC State doesn't count, and they've got three straight very winnable home games after this, so they focus should be there. FSU's stock couldn't possibly be any higher, hence you're going to pay for betting on the Noles, and I'm not buying. Winston has made some mistakes, and he's only thrown three TD passes in 67 attempts. IMO that's a big reflection of his security blanket, Kelvin Benjamin, being gone. FSU does NOT bring back a ton of their defensive starters, and having won it all last year (in a game they could have lost) and being ranked #1 this year, I see a huge sense of complacency, or at least one that has them not really focusing for the whole 60 minutes. They'll come out sharp, on TV and at home against a rival, but it's how you finish and I will take Clemson with three scores. Bowden may be gone and it's Fisher's team, but it's the same group of talented but less than coachable kids, IMO, and of course they (FSU) also lost their defensive coordinator, Jeremy Pruitt, to Georgia.
In spite of the line move, I'd like to take Missouri. With a total of 72 there's certainly room for error, but my caveat here is that they can't cover every game and they've got to play at South Carolina next week as their SEC season FINALLY begins.
There's no way Penn State should be four touchdown favorites to too many teams, even UMass. Although UMass does suck, they've got to be feeling pretty good about themselves by comparison to last year. The Lions have a pretty easy schedule, with their only Top 25 opponents coming to Happy Valley, and after a 3-0 start I can see them letting up a bit.
The line in the Marshall game screams Akron. I'm not ready to pull that trigger, but I do love what Akron did defensively to Penn State. With that in mind after the public bets this up (the total) a little more, I like the under here.
Pittsburgh looks entirely too easy and I can see using them in a ML parlay, but now at -7 I think Iowa's defense can keep this game reasonably close, so I like the under here.
Ball State certainly has been horrible, but a five point adjustment from the opening number is enough to back my ass off. Clearly an over reaction IMO to what Toledo did on prime time TV against Cincinnati. Ball State is one of the better teams at making adjustments, so at +14 I might have to think about that.
Two weeks ago Maryland probably would have be -4 or so, but after what Syracuse did last week, here we are at -1. CMU is not the opponent Maryland is, and I hate this spot with the 'Cuse having the Irish up next. Terps loss to WVU not a huge deal, IMO, so I lean Maryland but think we can get more points later in the week.
Idaho sucks, especially away from the Kibble Dome, but who is Ohio to be laying 13 points. I am very inclined to take them.
I can't touch Central Michigan or Kansas for that matter. First team to 17 wins, so I lean under.
With UGA opening at -40 and being bet up more, people must assume they're just going to take it out on Troy. They might, too, with a total of 69. I tend to think it does hit that number, because Troy can score but they're not going to stop UGA and UGA won't have time consuming drives.
I think the totals' gone to high in the Badgers game, as they've had two weeks to prepare and BGSU will have a very tough time putting points on the board. Wisconsin would like to run the table after the LSU loss, and has the schedule to do it. But, they're not the type of team to go for style points, so I lean under here.
Tulane really does suck. I watched the G-Tech game and Tech made that game closer than it needed to be and closer on the scoreboard than it really was. That was Tulanes' opener in a new stadium, too. With that in mind, I do think Duke wins this handily.
Wake opening as a favorite to anyone is hard to fathom, but Army being favored on the road may be harder for me to fathom. Perhaps the sheer size of Wake wears down Army. So, Wake and under IMO.