I went ahead and took West Virginia +4.5, -115 as soon as the line came out. It quickly got bet down to +3, -105. I heard a quote from WVU head coach Dana Holgorsen following their blowout of Towson that really struck a chord with me. He said something to the effect of "For the first time since Geno was here when I call a play I actually expect it to work." What this tells me is despite their positive start to the season (covering easily against Alabama and destroying Towson 54-0 as 28 point favorites) they remain underrated. Holgorsen's air raid offense is so reliant on timing and QB play that it basically can't function when the head coach and QB aren't on the same page. This was the case all of last year with new QBs and WRs who were attempting to learn the system. However it seems to be functioning well this year now that Clint Trickett is healthy and knows the system. With Trickett and Holgorsen on same page this is basically a different team and I don't think the market has caught up to that fact yet.
Maryland beat West Virginia 37-0 last year but West Virginia played freshman Ford Childress in that game at QB. Childress played poorly and West Virginia turned the ball over 6 times including 4 lost fumbles. I also think this is a better spot for West Virginia as they are coming off a home game against a 1AA (yes I'm still calling it that) opponent while Maryland is coming off a game in the heat in Florida. Maryland needed a fourth quarter rally to beat USF and while you can argue they should have won by more considering they lost 4 fumbles they also couldn't move the ball on the ground. I think Maryland will need a decent ground game for this one considering WVU's secondary seems to be improved.
I don't think the market recognizes the difference between this year's WVU team and last year's WVU team yet so I think it makes sense to grab the 3 points here. I'm 2-0 in WVU games so far this season and plan on capping every game for you guys. Someone asked me in my last write-up if I am comfortable betting against WVU. I can assure you I am and have done so many times in the past, the opportunity just hasn't presented itself yet this season. Best of luck this week everyone.
Dub's WVU Write-ups
Week 1: /pregame-forums/f/12/t/950889.aspx?pi10417=1#2124487
Week 2: /pregame-forums/f/12/t/1027167.aspx?pi10417=1#2173276