Hello Pregame! Tried posting this to my website, but got an error. Wanted to pass along to you for your consumption. Any comments are welcome. Thanks for reading and let's all go get 'em next week!
The first week of college football is in the books for us. We bet 6 games, going 3-3, but losing 2.60 units. Obviously, we must do better than that for our clients.
What did we learn? First, of the 6 games we bet, the underdogs covered 5 and lost 1. We did bet 4 underdogs and 3 of them covered. One of the favorites, LSU, won by just 4 points and we got the worst of the line at -5. Lines do matter! We had the right side, but the wrong line. Those who got LSU at -3.5, or Wisconsin at +4.5 are very happy campers this morning. So we learned that lines do matter. We also learned that we were on the right side most often when we looked towards the underdogs. Remember that the public bettor likes to bet favorites and overs, and we do remain convinced that more value will be on playing the underdogs.
What are we looking for next week? Look for over-reactions! Books will adjust their lines, and they will adjust those lines to fit public perceptions. So we need to stay sharp, and stay focused. What teams are most prone to benefit lines out of these teams next week, but I also look for teams that come out and play much, much sharper football. Teams that could take bettors for a ride with too much positive reaction are USC, Georgia and Notre Dame. The teams that will benefit from an over-reaction? Three I like are South Carolina, UCLA, and Florida State. All three underperformed this weekend, relative to expectations, so look for these teams to hit the practice field and film room hard. I look for smaller lines from the sportsbooks, too. The USC Trojans had a very impressive debut, but a road game at Stanford is next, where Stanford has the revenge factor, will make for a rough trip for the Trojans. East Carolina has South Carolina next, and with that brutal opener, the Gamecocks will be out to make amends. Remember, before Texas A&M came through and made mincemeat out of the Gamecocks, some experts were talking about them being an NCAA playoff team. They go from playoff team to 6-7 wins because of one game? The answer probably lies somewhere in the center, but I expect a much sharper effort from the Gamecocks, especially on defense.
That's a wrap for week one in college football. One more reminder. Don't sleep on baseball. There's still a lot of money to be made on baseball, and we will keep at it here. We have been solid as a rock the last month, consistently winning with baseball. Our strategy is working. The key to the last month in particular is to look at teams' motivation, especially with teams that are playing out the string. But there are still plenty of teams fighting for the playoffs, so it will be a very interesting September.
May All Your Bets Be Winners!
The Raider