Welcome to the first installment of “Wise Guy Wednesday”, a new feature that should prove interesting to follow throughout the coming football season. Each Wednesday, I’ll be running through the college and NFL schedule with a rundown of games that are drawing pro action, thus the “wise guy” title.
A few important notes before glancing at this week’s slate. First off, these are not necessarily plays I’m on myself. I really don’t care what anyone else is playing, be they a pro or a Joe. But like many bettors, I at least like to know where the supposed sharper dollars are going. This can be of substantial value in determining when to play. I might be strictly playing just my own opinions, but the idea is to try and get the optimum number, and being able to garner a good idea of where the betting line on a game is likely to go will undoubtedly pay dividends over the course of a full season.
As to how this information is obtained, I can tell you it’s not based on bet percentages that can be found at various websites. Not that there’s anything wrong with that info, but there are times when it can be misleading even though it’s factual. I prefer to rely on what I’ll simply call excellent sources on both sides of the window here in Las Vegas, from faraway places, and from contacts at key locations back east.
Enough with the preliminaries. Let’s get to the games. I’ll be including the scheduling rotation numbers with these games so they’ll be easy to locate.
#136 UL Monroe drew some sharp early play, but now it’s a major case of follow the leader. One of my contacts said that “everyone and their uncle” is playing the Warhawks at this point, and this is the biggest mover of the week. I would expect some Wake Forest buy back at some point as those who scored UL-Monroe at the early price will be unable to resist a huge middling opportunity.
#141 Temple is a sharp side. The Owls were hit hard by pros a couple days ago, and the sheep are now firing away as well, driving the spread through a key number in the process. My info is that this line will continue to drop.
#151 UTSA is sharp vs. square with the pros grabbing the points. As this will be a later start on Friday, public dollars could push the line back up a bit when it gets close to post time.
#153 UNLV is getting a little support from the pros, while favored Arizona is preferred by the other side, although it’s not overwhelming either way.
#164 UAB took some serious action on Tuesday. I’ll be candid, I’m pretty good at knowing where lines will go before they actually do so, but this one caught me by surprise.
$169 Florida Atlantic is a clear pro/Joe battleground, with, according to two of my contacts, “all” of the sharper bucks on the underdog.
#187 Western Michigan is getting some sharp play, but not as much as the line drop might indicate. Apparently, it’s more a case of scant action, but what exists is more on the dog.
#205 Utah State is drawing some good play, prompting a “$%^&* Tennessee” response from one of my contacts. Bookies have very good memories, and fading the Vols was good for the bettors and bad for the accountants last season, especially down the stretch. So I wasn’t surprised to hear a bit of profanity when assessing the action on this game.
#210 Louisville is getting the sharper early dollars and note that this line has gone through a key number. The opinions offered seemed to indicate it’s more likely to continue ascending as we get closer to post time.
That’s it for the first edition of “Wise Guy Wednesday.” Back with more next week.
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Also this week . . . multiple CFB free picks, plus my biggest star-rated football games, plus big football discounts on season subscriptions that are ending soon . . . on my homepage