Alright guys, College Football is finally here. We've all been waiting for this ever since the final play of the NC game in January... Here are my plays for Week 1 of the college slate.
Thursday:
Ole Miss (-10.5) ($200) - There's a reason Chris Peterson finally decided to leave Boise. This program is headed the wrong way. Bo Wallace and Ole Miss should roll in this game. That Ole Miss D will be too fast and too strong for a Boise offense that lacks explosive playmakers. This coach Boise pulled from Ark St is a good coach, but he won't have the same magic Peterson seemed to always have in these big games.
Friday:
BYU (-16.5) ($200) Taysom Hill and BYU will roll into UConn and dismantle the huskies. UConn will have no answer for the Cougars' rushing attack. I don't have a whole lot of stats to back up my opinion, but I think BYU is a really underrated team this year. If Hill can throw the ball well enough to make teams respect the pass, that offense will be tough to stop. And Bronco Mendinhall's D is always solid.
ADDING: Bowling Green -6.5 and Colorado -2.5 (200 each) I think there's a tallent and experience gap in both of these situations. I think there's value where the lines sit right now.
ADDING: BYU (100) -15 - adding another 100 at the new line. Should have waited on the original play.
Saturday:
Penn State (+2) ($200) In 2013, Blake Bortles took UCF into Penn State and pulled out a 3 point win in true freshman QB Hackenberg's 2nd start at PSU. A year later, Hackenburg is back and more experienced. Penn State has added one of the top 5 coaches in college football, and Bortles is a Jaguar. UCF was 7-1 in 1 score games last year (including late 4th quarter comebacks vs USF, Temple & Memphis). I like Penn State to win this game.
Troy (+3) ($300) (Wrong team favored) Troy still hasn't settled on a starting QB, but it won't matter who they pick. This UAB pass defense can't stop anyone. And Larry Blakeney has proven over the last 8-10 years at Troy, his offense can throw the ball on anyone, whomever is QB. Also, the entire UAB program is a mess right now. Troy will easily maintain the "Big Brother" roll over this in-state rival.
Arkansas (+20) ($100) - Auburn beat exactly 1 SEC team by 20 points last year (Tennessee). Auburn will be improved in year 2 under the Gus Bus, but at the same time, everyone has a year of film now on Auburn's offense. Arkansas lost by 18 to Auburn last year, but that game was much closer than the score indicated. I think Arkansas can keep this game competitive long enough to cover the +20
Idaho (+36) ($100)- Florida will win this game easily. But, Florida doesn't score enough points to be favored by 36. They've only topped 40 once since 2011. Idaho isn't a good team, but if Florida gets up a couple scores, they'll look to run the ball and get out of the game healthy as they look toward their SEC schedule.
LSU (-5) ($300) - LSU in neutral site season openers... 2013 beat TCU by 10, 2011 beat Oregon by 13, 2010 beat UNC by 6. (also beat Washington by 8 at UW in 09) Les Miles doesn't lose these big game season openers.
Marshall (-23.5) ($200) - Miami (OH) lost its 4 non-conference games by a total of 157-35 (30.5 ppg). They played Kentucky, Marshall, Illinois, & Cincinnati. Marshall brings back that big offense. Miami just hasn't made up near enough ground in the last year to be competitive at all in this game.
Sunday
Tennessee (-6) ($300) Both of these teams have lost a lot of players off of last years teams. The difference is, Tennessee is reloading with the #5 recruiting class in 2014, and #21 in '13. Utah State is reloading with the #106 class in '14 and #105 in '13. Plus playing in front of 105K drunk, crazy UT fans, all for under a touchdown? Sign me up!