2014 PAC-12 FOOTBALL | SOUTH DIVISION
UCLA | ARIZONA STATE
UCLA is consensus pick to represent the South Division in 2014 PAC-12 Title Game
Arizona State is also a popular Darkhorse to repeat as the South Champ
It’s more than a little striking just how oddly overlooked SC seems to be in the South
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
1st Year Head Coach, Steve Sarkisian is a familiar face at So Cal as we all know
As outspoken as I’ve been in criticism of HC ‘Sark’ during his largely mediocre tenure on Mont Lake,
Steve Sarkisian is back in his element at So Cal
In typical SC fashion, USC leads the way with PAC-12 w/14 Preseason All-Conference Players
And this Trojan Team - especially on Defense - is an absolute beast
SC finished 2014 on a Roll after thier ‘4-3 stumble & midseason HC Lane Kiffin flameout.
In truth, SC probably played closer to their talent when they hit the back half season stride
Even a 4-3 Start, despite losing 2nd most PAC-12 Defensive Starts to Injury (20)
SC finished as the clearcut #1 Defense in the PAC-12 (335 YPGA) in PAC-12
USC 2014 DEFENSE
Phil Steele lists EVERY SC DEFENSIVE UNIT as #1 in the PAC-12
SC’s Defense might really be a flashback to their bombastic, suffocating mid-2000’s Pete Carroll Title years
USC’s Secondary
#1 PAC-12 Rated Unit (Rated #3 NATIONALLY)
Stocked & talented as ever & ALL starters are ‘Sixers’ (Topping 6-0 or more)
The Trojans Corners & Safety’s (3 of 4 Starters back)
SC CB Sr Shaw and SC Jr Seymour are 6-01 are really top-flight lockdowns - deadly combo
Soph Safety’s, 6-01 Cravens (#1 Defensive Freshman last year) & Soph 6-01 McQuay
Are #2, #6 rated National Recruits in their respective HS Classes
USC’s Linebackers
#1 PAC-12 Rated Unit (Rated #5 NATIONALLY)
Jr Sarau, Sr Pullard (1st Team All-Conf | 107 Tackles last year)
Two SC Vet players, Dawson & Hutchings w/nearly 200 career tackles whom haven’t cracked the Starting lineup yet
USC’s Defensive Line
#1 PAC-12 Rated Unit (Rated #5 NATIONALLY)
NFL bound players anchor this Unit, led by power-rush star, SC 6-05 | 300 Jr Len Williams
#1 Defensive Freshman 2 years ago
USC OFFENSE
The image that keeps coming to the surface - Alabama
Methodical, efficient - albeit Vanilla…
(paradoxical just after SC and Bama just announced their upcoming Home & Home series)
In truth, SC’s offense was #10 in the Conference last season
USC'a Quarterback
However, SC’s QB Kessler wasn’t dynamic - yet after 8 TD and 5 INT thru 7 Games
Kessler navigated USC thru their 6-1 finish by tossing 12 TD vs just 2 INT
USC's Backfield
Moreover, SC’s backfield - after losing RB Redd,
Brings back a healthy Tre Madden and Javorious Allen
In Phil Steele’s exact words, ‘May be the best RB duo in the country’
USC SCHEDULE
The game that jumps out is probably Week 2, USC at Stanford
w/the early line installed at SU -3½
Vegas essentially deems these two teams virtually EVEN talent-wise, after Home Field calculation
Clearly a revenge spot for SU, after SC ground out a 20-17 win last year in LA
These two teams have played 4 consecutive single-digit, statistical dead-heat games
2014 should be no different
Two best 2013 Defenses and the #10 and #9 2013 Offenses facing off
Could be a choice spot for a shockingly underpriced SC team;
Trojans will catch an SU team w/only 28 Offensive Line Starts returning & more holes to plug than usual
Even IF SC drops to 0-1 in the Conference,
The Trojans Schedule is unspeakably less daunting than usual
Most notably: USC does not play OREGON
USC also gets 2013 South Champion ASU Devils at the LA Coliseum
USC skips Sarks former team, UW
½ of USC’s four Conference Road Games are at less-daunting venues (at Wazzu & at UU)
The South Title Game should come down to the Crosstown Rivalry vs UCLA
Though the Bruins are robust group & UCLA beat SC soundly last year (35-14)
Long season ahead - no telling what the year will bring for each team
Just difficult to imagine the same turmoil & injury issues hitting the 2014 USC Team
QB Hundley is superb yet - arguably - somewhat prone to struggle vs Top Notch Defenses
Hundley wasn’t forced to complete more than 19 passes over the Bruins last 7 Games
Even so, Hundley’s OL (#4 Rated in PAC-12)
Allowed an athletic Hundley to get sacked or hurried a PAC-12 worst 9.2% of his dropbacks
Really beleive USC - especially that powerhouse Defense; is the real deal
Doubling down on a great SC value
½ UNIT
2014 PAC-12 SOUTH CHAMPION
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA +175 (5-Dimes)
½ UNIT
2014 TEAM WINS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA | OVER 9 WINS (EVEN | 5-Dimes)
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Quick-n-Dirty
2014 UTAH UTES | WINS
Utes was inexplicably hexed last season
When Utah was at full strength,
UU beat BYU in Provo, & took down then-#5 Stanford in SLC
Utah truly dominated a Cardinal team considered to be the most physical in the PAC-12
Utah could have been the best losing team in FBS
A 5-7 UU team was really IN every game
UU covered & stayed with mighty Oregon in Eugene (44-21)
Lost gut-busting HOME Games to then-ranked Oregon State (OT) & 20-19 to #23 AZST
2014 Utah Team brings the 4th most Preseason All-Conference Players (10)
The Utes have the most difficult schedule in the PAC-12
Yet, UU had the #13 hardest FBS Schedule last year, yet won 5 Games with a boatload of adversity & misfortune
UU: Very good Coaching, #3 PAC-12 Special Teams, always among the least penalized in PAC-12
Liking UU to gain Bowl Eligibility in 2014
½ UNIT
2014 TEAM WINS
UTAH | OVER 5 WINS (-105 | 5-Dimes)
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2014 OREGON STATE BEAVERS | WINS
After clicking thru more than a full 5-Year Roster cycle w/o any changes in Unit Leadership Staff (OC/DC/HC)
Oregon State’s Mike Riley finally lost his 11-Year Offensive Coordinator, Danny Langsdorf to the NFL NY Giants
Riley has been the Dean of PAC-12 Coaches for many years
The Beavs and their #3 PAC-12 Offense aside
OSU is honestly & quietly loaded on Defense
All 3 SENIOR Linebackers (Doctor | Alexander | Johnson)
Are Rated #4 Unit in the Conference - this is a wildly undervalued unit
Closing speed & range - the Front 7 for OSU is just very quick & robust
OSU’s TOP FIVE Tacklers are back from a unit that lost 23 Starts to injury
OSU Secondary ALSO STARTS 3 experienced Seniors
From a Pass Defense that led the PAC-12 with 19 Picks
Not a homer play as much as clear and obvious value
½ UNIT
2014 TEAM WINS
OREGON STATE | OVER 7½ (+150 | 5-Dimes)
Working on several more futures plays
All the best, guys