Free Pick: (904) MIAMI MARLINS +130
Say what you want about the Marlins as an organization, it’s sure tough to find fault with the desire this team’s players have displayed all season long. Even if I might be a little dubious about Mike Redmond’s strategy at times (he sac bunts way too frequently and has in the process taken the bat out of his best hitter’s hands more than a couple of times) it’s clear Redmond is getting max effort from his guys. The Marlins never seem to think they’re out of a game, and they’ve fashioned some dramatic rallies this season.
These Marlins have also proven extremely tough to beat when Henderson Alvarez is pitching at home. Alvarez has made believers out of more than a few skeptics along the way. He was thought of mostly as a back end of the rotation type, but he’s simply better than that. For whatever reason, Alvarez doesn’t seem to have caught on that much as far as the TV talking heads are concerned, but he’s legit and has proven to be a terrific buy for bettors along the way.
As for Stephen Strasburg, tonight’s Nationals starter, he’s not exactly pitching with a four-leaf clover attached to his body. Strasburg has some dominating peripherals to be sure. But he’s had some rough luck, particularly on the road, for much of the season. Most recently, I think it’s fair to say Strasburg has been at less than his best, so it appears as though the Marlins are catching him at the right time.
Certainly the situation is favorable for Miami. They’re off a great win last night and that’s key as this is probably the most important series the Marlins have played all season. Stealing a win in a game in which they appeared doomed is huge. There’s also at least the possibility that red hot Jayson Werth could be missing in action tonight, as he twisted an ankle last night and as I’m writing this, his status for Tuesday night is unknown. It didn’t look bad, so maybe he’s right back in the lineup tonight. But if by chance he can’t go, that’s a very big stick out of the mix for the Nats.
I see this number being a little higher than it ought to be. I make the Nats the favorite, but I see this being closer to -120 than where it is as I’m posting this. It’s a game where I’m going to want to see lineup info before firing, but given the scenario off Monday night, as well as the home/road splits for the starting pitchers, the Marlins look like then right side to me.
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