Better late than never, and thanks to those who got a winner for $1 last night and who are on for the weekend. If you're not on for the weekend, you can be. I do this (lengthy information) ALMOST every day. Good luck.
In the spirit of TRYING to stick to home teams, this is "next". Dodgers are clearly almost always over valued, and even with Grienke, on the road, they don't need to be that price to the first place team. LA has SOME travel issues, although they did have yesterday off (part of the reason for the line, IMO) since they came from Pittsburgh where they pretty much had their confidence tested. This is less about batter versus pitcher than motivation and talent. Let's assume as the public would that Zach is better than Timmy. Well, on the road opponents hit .60 points (.282) against him. Indeed, he's beaten the Giants twice this season, both times more than two months ago and both times in Los Angeles. Enough about that. Timmy hasn't allowed a RUN in his last three starts at home, and I'll save you the details, but he's exponentially better at home this season. Maybe some people are reading into the 2/3 of an inning he had to pitch the other night. He threw 21 pitches. Should be no big deal, especially with the HUGE bullpen advantage the Giants have. Their pen has a 1.52 ERA this week while thanks to the Pirates the Dodgers' back end ERA is over 4.00. So, the Giants can get the revenge for the two losses, extend their lead in the NL West, and both Hanley and Puig are listed as questionable. I'd love to wait for lineups, but would still bet this anyways. Same goes for the Rockies. I may or may not add them later for LT subscribers, but that's next up as are my thoughts on other game. Sadly, there's is a lot of RLM (reverse line movement) on far too many road teams tonight, some I agree with and some not, but none blindly big enough to follow for the sake of having more bets. I'll run those down in a bit and let you guys decide :)
The rest of the story:
There's a ton of sharp money on the Mets. Gennett and Lucroy out, but I don't know if that's enough for me to take New York, inasmuch as I am not a Gallardo fan. However, the money cannot be denied.
There is no chance of betting on Wade Miley, but that's just me. It's tough enough to bet on EITHER team, but I do think the game goes over.
People have been fading Simon every start lately, expecting the inevitable regression. I don't agree with the Nationals, even tho there's some money behind them, simply because they are not as solid against RHP and the Reds have the better bullpen.
I will never lay -160 with Wood or Minor. Flyball pitchers and Hahn is simply an unknown to Atlanta. Easy call for me in that I'd take the Padres RL.
Seriously considering the Rockies here, and if Alvarez is out we should add them. Haven't seen lineups yet, but Pirates v/LHP and Morton capable of implosion against anyone.
Inasmuch as I think Beurhle is over rated, too, Kuroda is as well, so I lean over a bit there. I also lean Yankees. I know they've got a primarily LHH lineup, but they're at home.
Lots of sharp people on Boston, and although I cannot totally disagree, I can't take them either. Rays in the Trop are a different animal, IMO. You might convince me to pay the price (no pun intended) for the Boston RL with a total of only 6.
All I could do with the A's is use them in a ML parlay. With whom I do not know. Pick one of the others that you agree with?
The Twins are the "sharp" side at the moment and I cannot disagree. However, laying -125 with the Twins doesn't seem like something people would line up to do. I lean over because Correia can get hurt and the White Sox bullpen sucks.
The money is on the Tigers. Smyly is back-and-forth and the Angels actually struggle a bit against LHP, or at least more so than RHP at times. Skaggs has been over rated/valued all season, IMO. I just can't call this game, and obviously missed 8 for a total. Still perhaps doable at 9, and I guess the Tigers with the trade probably have the better bullpen, so I'd have to take the road team, if you made me.
Orioles are a very dangerous team right now even w/Felix pitching at home. I certainly won't lay -190 or whatever the going rate is, but I could see taking the Orioles RL.
I thought I would jump all over Kuechel but I'm not going to. I like under in that one better. There's some issues w/the line (to me) that are yellow flags is all. If it were the only game in town, maybe, but it's not.