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What do you normally do when a line is based almost entirely on a pitcher?

Thread Starter What do you normally do when a line is based almost entirely on a pitcher?
Lozo1016
Joined: 01/16/2013
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For example today, when the lowly Texas Rangers were favored on the road against the NY Yankees. In the previous 2 games in this series, Texas was +147 and +164....Tomorrow, the Rangers will be about +172. So we can see that the sole reason Texas was favored was because of Yu Darvish.


What goes through your mind when you see something like that?

Lloyd Christmas
Joined: 07/22/2009
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He must be pretty good

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a pain, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice 

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

Kirksports
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If you wager on a game almost solely on the pitcher, then you better wager on the first 5 innings. I can't stress any harder.  Bullpens are not reliable enough to handicap

sleepyj
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great pitcher & bad team or struggling team...great fish bait tho.

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Lloyd Christmas
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Kirksports

If you wager on a game almost solely on the pitcher, then you better wager on the first 5 innings. I can't stress any harder.  Bullpens are not reliable enough to handicap

I've heard this argument and I see where people are coming from.

At the same time, you have another situation where something is already built into the line. 

On the contrary, I think bullpen fatigue is heavily overlooked.  If you dig into every team to rate their bullpens, then keep track of who will likely not be available that day, you'll be able to find some teams that are going to be at a real disadvantage in the later innings.  This will be especially true if you have a starter who generally doesn't work very deep into games.

I think this is angle in largely ignored, especially considering overnights are put out before the games are even played on that day. 

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a pain, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice 

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

Kirksports
Joined: 12/22/2011
Posts: 439
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Lloyd I will defer to you being correct on that use of handicapping bullpens.  I bet for a living and do not mind doing the work, however probably 95% of the people I talk to about baseball in the casino everyday, will bring up whoever is pitching first and foremost.  I firmly believe that if you are going to base your wager on the pitchers and analytics associated with them, you should play the first 5 innings at least for half of your wager.  I convinced a very well known baseball capper of this and he is having a very big year so far.  His stats are pitcher based.

Lloyd Christmas
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And you could be completely right, I just know if I'm going to spend the time to dig, I want to dig for something everyone else is not digging for as well.

Something that can't be overlooked either is the difference in hold.  On a 1H line being 20 cents, the hold is going to start at 4.5% and decrease slightly as is rises (it's about 3% on -170/+150)

With a standard dime line, it starts at 2.4% and goes down to 1.3% by -180/+170.

The important thing is to stick with what works just as long as it's not something asinine that's worked a few times and you've convinced yourself it will work going forward  

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a pain, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice 

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

Farmhouse1
Joined: 07/15/2014
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I saw a very similar line with darvish against the angels with shoemaker pitching for the halos a couple weeks ago. Shoemaker had no problem really with the texas lineup and darvish got tagged around by that tough angels line up and the rangers lost. It was a game on sunday night baseball and the "majority" were on the rangers im assuming because they saw darvish starting. I also saw a similar line a month ago when the white sox were visiting the angels and chris sale was starting and the line was -115 for the white sox with the majority siding with the white sox and again im assuming its because they saw the name chris sale. Again it was shoemaker starting ironically. But yea white sox were winning 5-0 or something like that and chris sale gave up a grand slam in the 8th inning and eventually the white sox lost the gsme. I actually had $500 on the white sox and i distinctly remember thinking about playing first five innings white sox or full game and at the last second i went with the full game line and paid dearly for it. So what i basically learned from both these experiences is that when you see and ace pitcher or a very well known pitcher has a short line to the point where it looks like an easy win and with the majority backing them heavy to dig deeper and see how the whole team is playing. Like how the bullpens are or how the team is hitting. I also distinctively remember discussing on a forum both of these games before they were played that these lines seemed "fishy" to me and i they didnt make sense to me but i still ended up playing the sox but i did take notice of the darvish vs angels line and it was similar results. So basically how i interpreted the line was like this, would you rather put money on an ace caliber pitcher with a bad team around him or on an average starting pitcher with a good team around him.

Lozo1016
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I have wondered about 5 Innings vs full game betting.

Farmhouse1
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Five innings is the way to go in my opinion. Shortens the game and leaves the bullpens out of the equation.

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