Forums

Forums
Where sports bettors talk!

WINNER - HR Derby Picks + Write-Ups

Thread Starter WINNER - HR Derby Picks + Write-Ups
dmak13
Joined: 03/19/2011
Posts: 858
Professional
Not Ranked

Hey Guys - 

We finished last week 20-11, +12.9* including the soccer prop bet that we cashed for Rodriguez from Venezuela scoring the most goals in the tourney.
Now, it's All-Star break.  I wanted to get you guys what I'm doing for the All-Star game & HR Derby tonight.  I'm of course keeping it light and not doing anything that hurts the bankroll.  But it's fun to have some action, and so I went through the HR Derby & All-Star Game for a couple plays.
Here we go: 
HR Derby: 
- Troy Tulowitzki, 1* +600  - This guy is a LOT stronger than people give credit, and his issue is that he just hasn't been able to stay healthy consistently.  He DOES get the Coors Field stigma attached to his name, but if you break down his stats further, he's hit 99 HRs at Coors Field and 77 away from Coors field.  So not THAT much of a difference, really.  And he's worth a shot here at the price.  I kind of approach the HR Derby as I do the Kentucky Derby.  We could bet on the favorite, but the odds and VALUE aren't as good with the favorite, and all it takes is one guy getting hot and it goes from there.  
- Yoenis Cespedes +500, 1* - I liked these odds and I actually wanted to take Puig...because there's been some back and forth between Puig & Cespedes.  But the odds are better for Cespedes, he is stronger, he's a RIGHT (corrected) handed hitter (which we like for Target Field) and perhaps what I like most about Cespedes is that he has strength to ALL fields.  A hitter who can knock it out to ALL fields, and a hitter who is familiar with the competition is dangerous.  And he CAN win this.  
- Jose Battista - +450, 0.5* - Jose Battista can flat out hit the ball, and if you check on ESPN, they have an awesome spray tracker that shows how many HRs hit this season would be a HR at Target Field.  Battista has EVERY HR hit far enough to be out at Target Field.  And he frankly has enough power to give this pick VALUE.
One thing to mention is that we can always hedge bets too.  Say for instance, if we take Tulo and he crushes the first round.  Maybe he's tired, or MAYBE we can get live odds on another guy in the 2nd round.  Something to consider.  If I see any VALUE in live betting, I will try to tweet it out.
Back tomorrow with an All-Star Game Play
Dmak

Humility in Winning and Accountability in Losses.

For premium plays, follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dmak1313

Website: NonStopSportsPicks.com

SOUR
Joined: 08/01/2011
Posts: 4704
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

Good writeups Dmak! Good luck this week! Have some fun!

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
NFL141103357.792440.00
dmak13
Joined: 03/19/2011
Posts: 858
Professional
Not Ranked

Thanks SOUR.  Best of luck to you as well!

Humility in Winning and Accountability in Losses.

For premium plays, follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dmak1313

Website: NonStopSportsPicks.com

DJ Wondabread
Joined: 12/02/2013
Posts: 983
Professional
Not Ranked

Congrats on a great run last week dmak. Of these three selections my favorite is Cespedes. I think you will have a good chance to hedge a bet against his +500 number, and he may even win the contest. BOL tonight!

Third year sports bettor NFL/ CFB/ CBB/ NBA. Always looking to learn, criticism always welcomed.

http://twitter.com/DJ_WondAbreAd

coreyw454
Joined: 10/05/2013
Posts: 933
Pro Draft Prospect
Not Ranked

Cespedes is not a left handed hitter. Obviously Cespedes can win this - he won it last year.

TMANT1544
Joined: 12/02/2013
Posts: 2711
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

solid bet on james rod.. but hes from Colombia.. and cespedes is a righty that hits bombs.. I like that play.. nice write ups.. im personally on puig for some lunch money.. I think he is the type that loves the spotlight and loves to show off so what better place to do it than the derby.. respect ur work dmak.. bol tonight

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
CFB4535256.25659.00
NFL7165452.21-435.00
dmak13
Joined: 03/19/2011
Posts: 858
Professional
Not Ranked

DJ Wondabread

Congrats on a great run last week dmak. Of these three selections my favorite is Cespedes. I think you will have a good chance to hedge a bet against his +500 number, and he may even win the contest. BOL tonight!

Thanks DJ...that's the hope!  Take him +500 and then come back in the 2nd round for + money on someone else.  Hedge to eliminate risk and guarantee PROFIT!

Let's hope Cespedes/Tulo and/or Battista have a HUGE 1st round to drive up odds on them, thus creating VALUE on others!

Humility in Winning and Accountability in Losses.

For premium plays, follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dmak1313

Website: NonStopSportsPicks.com

dmak13
Joined: 03/19/2011
Posts: 858
Professional
Not Ranked

TMANT1544

solid bet on james rod.. but hes from Colombia.. and cespedes is a righty that hits bombs.. I like that play.. nice write ups.. im personally on puig for some lunch money.. I think he is the type that loves the spotlight and loves to show off so what better place to do it than the derby.. respect ur work dmak.. bol tonight

Thanks TMANT.  I stand corrected...I was looking at the spray chart and saw mostly left field HRs and all field power.  I mis-stated that in the write-up.  Thanks for the clarification!

Humility in Winning and Accountability in Losses.

For premium plays, follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dmak1313

Website: NonStopSportsPicks.com

dmak13
Joined: 03/19/2011
Posts: 858
Professional
Not Ranked

Thanks Corey...write-up edited.  My fault.  See reply to TMANT for clarification.

Humility in Winning and Accountability in Losses.

For premium plays, follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dmak1313

Website: NonStopSportsPicks.com

SOUR
Joined: 08/01/2011
Posts: 4704
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

Guys Dmak has been hot hot this past week. You can see that. We might want to just start following!!

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
NFL141103357.792440.00
Rate This
  • 16 replies
  • 1 subscriber
  • Posted3 months ago