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Dave's Free Monday MLB Play

Thread Starter Dave's Free Monday MLB Play
Dave Essler
Joined: 11/01/2009
Posts: 13740
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Dropped our terrible free play yesterday after winning Friday's and Saturday's. Tough to take sh*t for losing a free play, but that's the nature of the beast, and it is a beast.

908 COL (+105) BetOnline vs 907 STL
Analysis: This is a total fade of Lance Lynn for me, who is a flyball pitcher in the wrong park at the wrong time, IMO. All six of his HR's allowed have come on the road, and only Stubbs (who's been hot) hasn't seen him but once. He's pitched twice in Coors Field, and although he hasn't allowed a home run, they've (Colorado) hit .302 against him, which almost tells me he's TOO afraid of the short porches. The Phillies have been somewhat hot, I admit that, but it's been against Washington (who was playing well at the time, the Mets, and the Phillies, all at home. Yes, Colorado just got swept by the Brewers, but looking at their schedule, the Cardinal may be the WORST hitting team they've faced in a month. Besides the Brewers, they've played the Dodgers (twice), the Giants, Atlanta, and Arizona. Chacin is a much better bet at home. Molina has played in six (at least) straight games (perhaps time for a rest), and I do like fading teams in their first game in the thin air, especially ones that have just been at home for any length of time, and in the heat and humidity. It will (usually) have a direct effect on the starter, in this case Lynn, who only twice in his last ten starts has pitched into the 7th inning. That of course brings the pen in perhaps sooner, and although the Cardinals pen has been better lately, they've done it at home and against weaker competition. At home, at this number, I'll bet the Rockies win, and in fact I did. Add to that the fact that 76% of the tickets are on the Phillies, who opened at -115, and there's a reasonable chance that the Rockies go of the listed favorite. I suppose it could be a setup to buyback later, but that's not how I see it. Good luck.

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Of any big win we have had, or winning streak, or even coming out of a losing streak, of this I am most proud:

Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind.

I still want to know if all these people on Twitter and Pick-Selling sites claim to have beaten up books for years, I would think there would be no places left to place wagers.

 

"I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!"

Griff
Joined: 08/20/2009
Posts: 22876
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Top 10 Contributor

Dave Essler

Dropped our terrible free play yesterday after winning Friday's and Saturday's. Tough to take sh*t for losing a free play, but that's the nature of the beast, and it is a beast.

908 COL (+105) BetOnline vs 907 STL
Analysis: This is a total fade of Lance Lynn for me, who is a flyball pitcher in the wrong park at the wrong time, IMO. All six of his HR's allowed have come on the road, and only Stubbs (who's been hot) hasn't seen him but once. He's pitched twice in Coors Field, and although he hasn't allowed a home run, they've (Colorado) hit .302 against him, which almost tells me he's TOO afraid of the short porches. The Phillies have been somewhat hot, I admit that, but it's been against Washington (who was playing well at the time, the Mets, and the Phillies, all at home. Yes, Colorado just got swept by the Brewers, but looking at their schedule, the Cardinal may be the WORST hitting team they've faced in a month. Besides the Brewers, they've played the Dodgers (twice), the Giants, Atlanta, and Arizona. Chacin is a much better bet at home. Molina has played in six (at least) straight games (perhaps time for a rest), and I do like fading teams in their first game in the thin air, especially ones that have just been at home for any length of time, and in the heat and humidity. It will (usually) have a direct effect on the starter, in this case Lynn, who only twice in his last ten starts has pitched into the 7th inning. That of course brings the pen in perhaps sooner, and although the Cardinals pen has been better lately, they've done it at home and against weaker competition. At home, at this number, I'll bet the Rockies win, and in fact I did. Add to that the fact that 76% of the tickets are on the Phillies, who opened at -115, and there's a reasonable chance that the Rockies go of the listed favorite. I suppose it could be a setup to buyback later, but that's not how I see it. Good luck.

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coreyw454
Joined: 10/05/2013
Posts: 725
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thanks for the info Dave. BOL

Dave Essler
Joined: 11/01/2009
Posts: 13740
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

coreyw454

thanks for the info Dave. BOL

You're welcome, and here's more info :)

I like the Fish a fair bit. Hernandez is getting old and tired, but the real value here may be in the total. Because CRIS will NOT come off of 8.5, at 8 I like the over, even if it is the relatively square bet at this point in time. 
Just based on the lack of movement in the side to the Reds yet the total going up, I like the Cubs quite a bit. Obviously there's no value whatsoever left in the total (IMO) but if they really thought it was the Reds going to score all those runs, they'd be favored.
Coin flip in Milwaukee, but lean to the Brewers. Garza is almost due to pitch well and the Nats have a tough time w/RHP. If it weren't the Brewers first game back it'd be a play for sure, but the Nats come off the emotional series with Atlanta, so it's the Brewers or nothing.
I simply can't touch the Giants game. Cain can be SO bad at times, if you made me I'd take SD +.5 for the first 5 innings, just because they've got an unknown entity pitching.
I also like Toronto, but have some reservations about their bullpen, so taking them F5 is a great option, IMO. Again, I like Stroman but how long he goes remains to be seen, and I lean under here as well. Saw quite a bit of Whitley and impresses w/his ability to keep the ball down.
That Seattle game could be 2-1 or 7-5. NOT laying -140 with Felix, who Boston hits reasonable, so Red Sox or nothing. Haven't looked at what the Boston RL costs, but with a total of only 6 it's probably not cheap, but, a winner. Need lineups for that one.
I still don't know how the Rays can be -160 to many people. Their pen is awful and Volquez CAN be decent. I would simply take the Pirates RL and perhaps the over in that one, since Pirates get a DH and Volquez could walk the park at any given time.
If I add the next one, it will be the Royals. Just too much sharp money there right now. If they'd hit Grienke at ALL in the past I would, and still might. Can't take the Dodgers, I do know that.

Dave's Home Page w/Marble Count and Daily Message

Dave's 30 Day All Access Package

Follow Dave on Twitter

Of any big win we have had, or winning streak, or even coming out of a losing streak, of this I am most proud:

Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind.

I still want to know if all these people on Twitter and Pick-Selling sites claim to have beaten up books for years, I would think there would be no places left to place wagers.

 

"I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!"

DieHard4BigBlue
Joined: 10/19/2012
Posts: 212
Jr. College
Not Ranked

I always LOL when you're like "I want to fire em' all". People like us look at a board and see $$.....others look and see...well, you know? :)

SOUR
Joined: 08/01/2011
Posts: 4289
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Top 150 Contributor

Sharp!

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB3092871251.851809.00
dennistyler
Joined: 12/12/2009
Posts: 15581
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Rocky Mountain high.

3 Year NHL Record

279-203-18 (+91.535)

@dennistyler

www.wecoverspreads.com

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