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Dave's Tuesday MLB - Free Play - 3*

Thread Starter Dave's Tuesday MLB - Free Play - 3*
Dave Essler
Joined: 11/01/2009
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Cashed the last four free ones.  And for those trying to post the marble count for the year, I beg to differ, but not for forgiveness. I am apathetic to you for trying, Willie.

980 MIN1.5 (-120) BetOnline vs 979 LOS
Analysis: I'm not even sure they'll play this game, but if they do, it's supposed to be super-cold and super-windy, perhaps even snow later in the evening. Several Twins saw (and hit) Greinke when he was with the Royals, so give me the home team here. How many Dodgers are used to THIS weather? And if they play, give me the Twins bullpen which has an ERA of 1.26 over the last week over the Dodgers, which hasn't been nearly as effective. Hanley is questionable, and I actually hope he DOES play. Plouffe may not play, but that's not a real negative.

 

Dave's 3* Game of the Week and/or Long Term Packages

Mets-Phillies: Both teams rested, but not taking Niese at that price against a Phillies team that stopped hitting might be a bad thing. Hamels had his one game since the DL stint, and threw only 86 pitches. The Mets have fared well against him, so without even looking much further I won't take Philadelphia. I could pass, but not taking the Phillies and lean over, but haven't looked at the weather yet, either. I could, but I am lazy right now.

Atlanta-Miami: That does look cheap for Jose Fernandez, or it's a gift to get Atlanta at that price. Honestly, I didn't expect Wood to pitch that well against the Fish last week, and the kids' had four straight 100+ pitch games at the age of 23. Miami may make the adjustments. And Jose struck out 14 Braves and allowed only three hits in Atlanta last week. The one problem I have with Fernandez is that he simply doesn't usually pitch deep, although he went 8 last week. Since the Braves are SO dependent on the long ball, it's tough to take them in a park where unless it's down the lines, it's not going out. Braves pen has been throwing MUCH better, and so has Miami's. If you made me, the Fish are 6-1 against left handed starters.

Cubs-Reds: We'll see what happens tonight, but Cingrani may not be worth -170 or so. I watched his last start, and he had little movement on his fastball and was fortunate to be playing in a big park (Pittsburgh) against a team that hadn't been hitting. Two straight starts with high pitch counts and lots of flyball outs, so he's almost overdue to get hammered, However, it may not be the Cubs. Jackson just faced the Reds and held them reasonably in check, but he hasn't been able to last much past six innings, which brings the Cubs pen into the equation sooner rather than later. Total of only 7.5 at this park probably means bad weather or wind blowing in, so I hope it goes to 8 so we can take the under and/or the Cubs RL, Monday dependent.

Brewers-Cardinals: Obviously Lohse back in real form lately, but the Cardinals are one team he's struggled against since leaving there, so I really can't back him without a full compliment of hitters behind him. And although Lynn seems to have turned back the clock a couple of years, his one home start was terrible and he really didn't look good against the Mets the other day. I don't trust the Cardinal bullpen (why would we), but Segura and Braun were the only two Brewers that DID have success against him. Otherwise, I'd have taken the over, and still might. 

Colorado-Arizona: The D-Backs saga continues. When Mike Bolsinger is essentially your best starter you may be in trouble. But, he can strike people out, which against the Rockies in a small park (roof open or not) might prove to be the difference. The Rockies haven't seen him, so perhaps a F5 under. Chatwood had two great starts and then the Giants hit him around pretty good, and in limited exposure the D-Backs have hit him a little. With that in mind and their bullpen it's the over for the game b/c AZ has no pen whatsoever, and perhaps the D-Backs. Perhaps. Although the early money is already fading them.

Giants-Padres: Without Headley or Seth Smith it's just going to be tough for San Diego to score. He did get lit up in Colorado and the Padres just saw him, so with Stults on the mound we might be able to make a case for the Padres RL somehow, but the Giants also just saw HIM and he held them to three hits in six innings. Depending on who the Giants rest tonight and what bullpen gets used, we also might make a case, if the Giants start to hit, for the over. At 6.5 it's almost foreseeable that the Giants get that many if they take the game serious, and somehow San Diego will get a COUPLE off of Cain who tends to lose focus at certain points.

Seattle-New York: Interesting that the total here is already down to 8 in Yankee Stadium with Young pitching and Sabathia is ONLY -160 after shutting down Boston. It's certainly due to the weather, which is damp with wind blowing in. With that in mind and not even looking at splits, I might be able to take the Seattle RL, simply because CC will likely regress at least mentally, and the Mariners are 6-3 against left handed starters.

Rays-Boston: Bedard looked simply terrible against the Twins the other night, which was a good thing for us, and clearly factored into this line already. He spent some time with the Red Sox and many years with the Orioles, so Fenway is no stranger to him. And of course there is simply no way Lackey has the year he had last season. Two awful starts then he gets pumped and beats the Yankees, and of course the Rays have had their way with him. I obviously don't like that Boston will be far more rested and the Rays pen has been terrible. Even with a chilly night and some breeze blowing in the total is probably going to go to 9.5, so if you like the over, it's probably now or never.

Oakland-Texas: I always look to back the Rangers against a LHP, which of course Kazmir is, and I probably will. Simply because if you look at who Kazmir has faced, it's not the most offensively potent teams in the league. Perez is a serious ground ball pitcher, but he JUST faced the A's and simply dominated them. This one has a play, dependent on what happens in the Monday game.

Detroit-Chicago: I've grown tired of Quintana and he's turned into a flyball pitcher, and just threw against the Tigers last week. He was respectable, but I'm not sure, with their bullpen, that we could find a way, unless it was the RL, to back them. Verlander obviously just faced Chicago, and was hit "some" or "more than usual" and since the White Sox know him so well, I could see looking at the over but the weather's not real conducive to that. Chicago playing the Rays tonight and the Tigers sitting in a Chicago hotel watching, so this one's not going to be done til tonight's game is.

Toronto-Kansas City: My first instinct is to almost always take Toronto against LHP, and with Reyes back there may be some merit in fading Vargas here. Five straight games with far more flyball outs and five straight games with 100+ pitches. His value has probably never been higher. But, of course McGown just kind of gets hammered and doesn't last very long, hence one of the worst bullpens in the league will be called upon. That total, with the predicted weather, is probably going to go to 8 everywhere. That COULD be enough for me to look at the over. 

Cleveland-Los Angeles: Since the Indians are usually far more effective against lefties, that could be a reasonable price to lay on Weaver. BUT, the Angels are 1-4 in his starts and he IS a flyball pitcher. Kluber has more or less been the model of consistency, but I noticed he's been getting the ball up lately as well, even in that four-hitter against the Royals there were 17 (that's a lot) flyball outs. Since the Angels haven't seen him and there's a slight breeze blowing in, I might look at the F5 under here. Not sure I trust either bullpen, and again much is dependent on Monday's game, or enough that I wouldn't bet it til it's over.

I am not doing the Inter-League game because I am lazy, tired, hungry, and just don't feel like it.

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Of any big win we have had, or winning streak, or even coming out of a losing streak, of this I am most proud:

Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind.

I still want to know if all these people on Twitter and Pick-Selling sites claim to have beaten up books for years, I would think there would be no places left to place wagers.

 

"I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!"

Freddyj
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Thanks. Dave - always enjoy reading your write ups

heavyflow
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Thanks Dave. Appreciate all the hard work

mason62
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BOL Dave...........

Inwood
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Like a relentless prosecutor & vigorous defense attorney,  arguing both sides. The winners are somewhere in the middle. Lol. Thank you for your valuable time, trying to put $$ in my (?) pocket.

AdvantagePlayer
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Great analysis!

Bruno Bets
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Dave Essler
Since the Indians are usually far more effective against lefties,

LOL....I used the exact opposite argument last night, buddy.....great stuff as always. Stack 'em up!

Dave Essler
Joined: 11/01/2009
Posts: 13914
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

Bruno Bets

Dave Essler
Since the Indians are usually far more effective against lefties,

LOL....I used the exact opposite argument last night, buddy.....great stuff as always. Stack 'em up!

And this year you are right :)

Dave's Home Page w/Marble Count and Daily Message

Dave's 30 Day All Access Package

Follow Dave on Twitter

Of any big win we have had, or winning streak, or even coming out of a losing streak, of this I am most proud:

Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind.

I still want to know if all these people on Twitter and Pick-Selling sites claim to have beaten up books for years, I would think there would be no places left to place wagers.

 

"I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!"

Bruno Bets
Joined: 11/08/2011
Posts: 36221
Rank NA
Top 10 Contributor

Love the play, DE. Very hard to overlook the Twins' .371 OBP facing RHP.....and the Dodge seeing Gibby for the first time and oh, so much better at home. The Beach Boys won't want to leave their locker-room never mind the dugout....LOL

Bankerz Bets
Joined: 02/19/2013
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Nice work Dave! I agree with your play on the Twins +1.5. The weather has been crazy for most of the US. Hopefully everything clears up real soon. BOL!

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