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Dave's Friday MLB - Free Play

Thread Starter Dave's Friday MLB - Free Play
Dave Essler
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Split our afternoon plays Thursday. Twins-Rays over (big earplugs) a winner and Pirates lose on a couple of hit batters. Red Sox are handing out gifts, so that's probably not a winner. Onwards and next. Finish these tomorrow.

972 CWS / 971 TAMOVER 8.5 BetOnline
Analysis: The Rays and the White Sox are hitting the ball, regardless of the fact that Archer is pitching. Danks, Dunn, De Aza, and Garcia will probably play second. Johnson is just terrible right now, and the breeze is blowing out to left. Eaton and Ramirez have been upgraded to probable (or I'd take the Rays but I think Chicago wins this game. 7 of 10 White Sox home games have gone over, and 11 of 16 against a RHP. Rays bullpen simply abused by the Twins, so it's ALL on Archer to keep this game under control, and IMO both teams get to 4.

San Diego-Washington: Tough to take a -200 favorite in a game that shouldn't see many runs, conversely easy to think about the +1.5 at what will be a cheap price. Strasburg a little more effective last time out, but not dominant. We'll see how Washington does against another LHP on Thursday and take it from there. Could be some weather here, perhaps even delays, and those games can be even more unpredictable.

Mets-Fish: Mets should be broken up! The biggest issue here is that Miami had the day off on Thursday, but the Fish have been as bad on the road as they've been good at home. Alvarez threw a two-hitter, but it was against Seattle and they haven't been hitting anyone. I tend to think the Mets new-found confidence is the winner. Perhaps some showers and even downright rain late here, with wind blowing out to LF. I'd almost be concerned about a total, because this game may not make 9 innings.

Reds-Braves: Reds play Thursday afternoon and get a fortunate win, but it's a win. Braves the day off, and I'm not sure I'd want to bet that Santana falls apart anytime soon. Leake can give up the long ball, and against a team like the Braves who live and die with the HR, it'd be tough for me to take the Reds here. The Braves pen has finally come around, but, it's been against Miami and the Mets, so I'm not convinced their issues are solved yet. At 7, this game could go over.

Cubs-Brewers: That's an awful steep price for the Brewers, even with Garza pitching. Villaneuva has been murdered the last two times out, so there's certainly no precedent for me taking the Cubs RL, either, not with the Cubs playing Thursday and the Brewers having the day off. I could certainly see using Milwuakee in a parlay/exotic. The hearty Wisconsin people may have the roof open and there's a slight helping breeze, so you know what that means.

Pirates-Cardinals: Pirates falling on some tough times late. They're on about a 4-11 streak, and their bullpen has regressed as well. Cole has been far more hittable away from PNC, and he opened the season beating St. Louis 12-2, and I doubt they've forgotten about that. But, they are in a first game back after losing a couple of windy/tough games to the Mets. Miller was the victim in that 12-2 loss, so if conventional wisdom plays a part, you'd have to like the Cardinals. Which means I might take the Pirates to win it late because the Cardinals pen has been terrible.

Philadelphia-Arizona: Tough travel spots for both teams, really. Phillies fly down from LA late tonight, while D-Backs fly from Chicago after a day game. Both team dicey to put money on, but I suppose I trust Fausto more than Collmenter at this point, which really, without looking to deep at this game, is the lesser of two evils. May depend on if anything happens late in LA that has any bearing.

Dodgers-Rockies: You would think that with "Beckett" and "the Dodgers" would be a bit more expensive against Lyles. But, Lyles is a groundball pitcher that doesn't give up the long ball, and in a big park like Dodger Stadium that's even a bigger advantage. Colorado with a day off while the Dodgers play late. Beckett's been pitching well, but not more than five innings yet, so this is without a doubt a F5 under bet for me. I can't back the Rockies bullpen, although the RL might be very doable.

Royals-Orioles: Baltimore flying back through Customs later tonight while the Royals short flight over from Cleveland. Ventura seems to be this seasons' somewhat over valued 22 year old that few have seen, but he got lit up by the Twins last time out. This is another game that could well either be rained out or delayed, so I wouldn't consider a total play, and honestly doubt I'd waste much time on it because of that. All things being equal, it'd be another F5 under if they play.

Boston-Toronto: As I am writing this Boston is simply playing poorly early against the Yankees, so traveling later tonight and coming off a series against the Yankees, I'd have to think that Toronto would be the play here. Peavy had his moment in the sun last October, and has had both control and long ball issues. Toronto just took a 3-0 lead on Baltimore, while Boston may be using more bullpen than they'd like. As much as Boston has hit Buerhle when he was with Chicago, I lean Toronto.

Tampa Bay-Chicago: Archer is at a young age one of those pitchers people like to back as well. He was lit in a road outing at Baltimore, but the White Sox haven't seen much of him, so lean to the Rays a bit. However, their bullpen has been used and abused the last couple of days, so it's all really on Archer to shut them down and go 7 innings, IMO. Not sure that Johnson is someone I could put money on, and with the White Sox pen used as well, this game could go over. Weather fairly conducive, and I might see taking the Rays RL, getting at least nine at bats.

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Of any big win we have had, or winning streak, or even coming out of a losing streak, of this I am most proud:

Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind.

I still want to know if all these people on Twitter and Pick-Selling sites claim to have beaten up books for years, I would think there would be no places left to place wagers.

 

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dennistyler
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Next level stuff, as usual. Thanks. I really needed something to read besides pucks.

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mason62
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BOL

Bruno Bets
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Stack 'em up, Dave!

cbelongia
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Leake can give up the long ball,

I have Bailey on the Bump, which is also good for the over.

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Raiderman66
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Good stuff as always Dave.  Definitely a must read for me.

Dave Essler
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Dave Essler

Split our afternoon plays Thursday. Twins-Rays over (big earplugs) a winner and Pirates lose on a couple of hit batters. Red Sox are handing out gifts, so that's probably not a winner. Onwards and next. Finish these tomorrow.

972 CWS / 971 TAMOVER 8.5 BetOnline
Analysis: The Rays and the White Sox are hitting the ball, regardless of the fact that Archer is pitching. Danks, Dunn, De Aza, and Garcia will probably play second. Johnson is just terrible right now, and the breeze is blowing out to left. Eaton and Ramirez have been upgraded to probable (or I'd take the Rays but I think Chicago wins this game. 7 of 10 White Sox home games have gone over, and 11 of 16 against a RHP. Rays bullpen simply abused by the Twins, so it's ALL on Archer to keep this game under control, and IMO both teams get to 4.

And both teams are in four in the fourth. I can't go that quietly :)

Dave's Home Page w/Marble Count and Daily Message

Dave's 30 Day All Access Package

Follow Dave on Twitter

Of any big win we have had, or winning streak, or even coming out of a losing streak, of this I am most proud:

Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind.

I still want to know if all these people on Twitter and Pick-Selling sites claim to have beaten up books for years, I would think there would be no places left to place wagers.

 

"I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!"

sdfritsch
Joined: 02/12/2011
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Great stuff ! What's just as good is I learn something everyday from this madness! Thank you Mr. miyagi!

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