The free play on the Mets RL was a winner, and I advised taking some ML, too. Here's the write up with what I added for LT subscribers, something we've been doing all year. If you want the risk, take it, and many do. I can assure you that most of my people, in doing so, are in the black. I don't keep track. If you want to play Russian Roulette every day, that's a personal choice.
Thursday:
920 BOS (-115) BetOnline vs 919 NYY |
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Analysis: I'll probably throw some on the RL, too, because Boston either wins by plenty or doesn't win, IMO.
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960 NYM1.5 (-135) 5Dimes vs 959 STL |
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Analysis: Let's not forget about Niese, here. He's quietly compiled a 1.17 WHIP over three starts and faced the Braves, Angels, and Reds. And with the total coming off off the key # of 7, there is just that much more value to the home team, the ninth at bat, and the +1.5 runs. Wacha is great, don't get me wrong. But, the kid is still only 22 and on a pitch count at times. He's only pitched through the 7th inning once this season, and honestly right now the Cardinals bullpen is far worse than the Mets. In the last week their ERA out of the pen is 5.17, and not much better than that over the course of the season in road games. Let's also not forget that St. Louis is hitting .180 this YEAR against left handed pitchers, which Niese obviously is. He tends to keep the ball on the ground. Two of his three starts were one-run games, and the one that wasn't (a 6-0 loss to Atlanta) was a game he left trailing 1-0. So, I fully expect him to battle Wacha til the end. If I had my druthers (I do, actually) I would put half this on the ML. The Mets have won five of the last eight, while St. Louis has lost four of seven. By no means saying the Mets are a better team, but right now, on the road, St. Louis shouldn't be -145 or whatever and Niese is clearly being overlooked.
May end up just firing them all, because in all our leans we are probably in the black, except for very recently. I know my bankroll is, not by a ton, but it's in tact, so we'll see what happens and hopefully for those running out of patience or that signed on at the wrong time, we get this headed in a better direction.
So here's where we are and my leans as of 5:00.
Kansas City
Cincinnati
Rays-Twins over
Baltimore-Toronto over
Slight lean to Baltimore
NY Yankees
Washington
Milwaukee Unless something stupid happens.
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Thursday:
Reds-Pirates: What we do know is that Cingrani can be over valued, but he's a strikeout pitcher against a team that strikes out a lot, so we'd lean that way, although there's no line out and of course no lineups, which will be important. Crumpton pitched pretty reasonable in his late call-up last year, and has been more-or-less "servicable" in the Minors. Because the Reds haven't seen him, this could be a classic F5 U bet for me, especially if they rest starters.
Mets-Cardinals: Amazing how two years (maybe less) Lance Lynn was a betting darling, then he fell apart, he's been cheap, and now he sits at 4-0 this season. Not amazing, really, because that's how this whole betting thing goes. Bartolo post-PED's hasn't been very good for the Mets and there is literally no chance I can back him. He had his one good outing against the Braves, when he kept the ball down, but that was the team to do it against because they're free swingers. St. Louis is a bit more patient. Lynn's had two good outings in a row after two bad ones, but he's always been MUCH better at home. Looks like a 20-25 MPH cross-wind has already knocked that total down to 7. We'll wait and see. Perhaps I could be talked into the Mets RL if the price is right.
Arizona-Chicago: Well, is it time to jump back on the D-Backs at a reasonable price after their ninth inning comeback? Perhaps. The question is if Bolsinger is going to get anyone out this time around. If there was ever a team he COULD look decent against, it'd probably be the Cubs. Jackson hasn't pitched very deep in any games, and one has to wonder if he can go a fifth game without giving up a long ball. I don't think he can, and that may bring BOTH bullpens into this early. Supposed to be VERY windy and direction difficult to ascertain, but a slight helping R-L is entirely possible. The could bring this total out a 12 and it might not be enough, IMO. Either way, the Cubs cannot be -125 here, so Arizona it is, probably :)
San Diego-Washington: That's a little steep for Zimmerman against a very good LHP, who the Nationals often have trouble with. What I do like is the under, especially because Washington's bullpen has been lights' out lately. However (there's always a caveat) Stults DOES give up more flyball outs than I'd like, and gets away with it more in the bigger park at home. Washington's park isn't a hitters' park, but it's not Petco, either. I do like the under 7.5 a bit, and could be convinced to perhaps take the Padres RL at the right price. This game looks like 4-3 or even 3-2 to me. Zimmerman has been hittable, but he's owned the Padres and they've (right now) got the better bullpen.
Phillies-Dodgers: There's a reasonable chance I could back Kendrick here based solely of his last game in Colorado, of all places, where he induced 17 ground ball outs. Now he's got a bigger park to work with and less expectations. However, the caveat here is that several of the Dodgers own him. Haren's rounding back into SOME form, but hasn't done it long enough for ME to trust him not to give it up. Perhaps because Kendrick is a decent hitting pitcher and Haren is an excellent hitting pitcher I'd consider the over. -160 probably a little rich for my blood, so I'll wait and see if somewhere this total goes to 7. I wouldn't touch it at 7.5.
Kansas City-Cleveland: Last year the Indians were almost an automatic play-on against a LHP. This season they're already 1-6 against LHP's so we'd have to look at Chen first. Well, he's been terrible with a WHIP of 1.87 and the Indians almost to a man have hit him very well. Kluber hasn't been much better this season, and the only Royal that hits him is Moustakas. He's been awful this season, but when he hits the whole team seems to. The weather would dictate an under play here, but that'd be hard given these two, and it's now or never because there are 8.5's out there but I do think this closes at 8. I do think that's the play given perhaps a resting starter or two and two pens that have been good lately.
Detroit-White Sox: -200 seems like and awful steep price on a day game against an opponent that knows you so well. Quintana had a rough game against the Rangers last week (perhaps our last win) but otherwise has been at least respectable. Perhaps not the Q that everyone fell in love with last season, but doable given the right set of circumstances. And he's been reasonable against the Tigers.
I'll do the rest when I am more focused :)