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Bryan's Diamonds: Plus Money Winner for Thursday

Thread Starter Bryan's Diamonds: Plus Money Winner for Thursday
Bryan Leonard
Joined: 09/02/2011
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909 Arizona at San Francisco
 
The Diamondbacks and Giants will finish up their three-game series with a Thursday evening game at AT&T Park. Randall Delgado could be pitching for his rotation spot in this one and he'll be opposed by Ryan Vogelsong. Delgado had some encouraging things to build on despite getting knocked around a bit by the Rockies. For starters, Delgado induced 11 swings and misses in just 4.2 innings of work. Over 60 percent of his pitches were strikes and he worked down in the zone quite a bit. But, the Rockies are a juggernaut of a lineup at home and the balls that Delgado did elevate got punished.
It didn't help that the BABIP Monster got a hold of him as he induced ground balls on almost 62 percent of balls in play, but they simply weren't hit at anybody. Only 9.5 percent of balls in play were line drives, so Delgado wasn't living in the middle of the plate at the belt. He's capable of touching 95 with heavy sink and has a track record of striking guys out in the minor leagues.
The big reason we like the Diamondbacks here is that, while we expect better from Delgado, Ryan Vogelsong is just overpriced. Vogelsong had a hard time maintaining his velocity in his first start and that's not a good sign for a guy that has a long track record of injuries throughout his professional career. Vogelsong worked up in the strike zone far too much in his last outing, as just 13.3 percent of balls in play were hit on the ground. He's lucky it wasn't worse with nine baserunners in four innings and two home runs allowed.
Looking at the PITCHf/x data and studying his batted ball numbers, it appears that Vogelsong is simply not healthy. After sitting around 92 mph in the first inning, he touched 92 twice the rest of the way. For a guy who has hovered around league average for ground ball rate, pitching up in the zone at 89-90 with no deception is a recipe for disaster. Hitters chased only 16 percent of the time in his first start and if that trend continues, Vogelsong will be behind in a lot of counts and be forced to throw 90 at the belt to get back into the count.
We'll take the encouraging signs from Delgado's first start and expect him to improve in this one, while Vogelsong and his team are overpriced from the Diamondbacks slow start. There's far too much talent on the Diamondbacks, both in the lineup and in the pitching staff, for this team to keep playing so poorly and we expect them to win this game more often than the line would have you believe.
PLAY: ARIZONA
 
Now 6-1 on the season with our Baseball Underdogs after the Cubs beat the Pirates last night. In addition to this FREE WINNER on the Diamondbacks we are releasing our TOP SELECTION, another GRAND SLAM UNDERDOG. Don't Miss iT!

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Money management, line shopping and reading the betting markets are just as important as picking the right side.

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Griff
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Plus Money in a Coin Flip Equals Longterm Profit.... GET MONEY!!!!

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heywally
Joined: 12/02/2012
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What a great and detailed analysis - thanks! Highlights my own lack of time/resources to devote to really looking at the nuts and bolts of individual games ......

Bryan Leonard
Joined: 09/02/2011
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Much appreciated guys. The whole reason for analysis is to prove that we are putting in the work. Even if you disagree with the play hopefully you can gain some information for a future wager.

The Only Five Time Finalist in Las Vegas Casino Football Handicapping Contests

Winner of the 2013 Gaming Today Brawl For It All Football Contest

Money management, line shopping and reading the betting markets are just as important as picking the right side.

Follow me on Twitter @BLeonardSports for interesting articles and late minute bets

DubV
Joined: 08/29/2011
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Good stuff Bryan, BOL tonight.

FSUORL
Joined: 01/16/2011
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Thanks Brian!

Jeff Scott Sports
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Great stuff Bryan. All the best to you today

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budweiserbookie
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thanks byran for all the infro and time .leaning,on ari myself and they are better than what they are playing and they got to get their act together so now is a good time to start      great infro  thanks  GO ARI

Brandon Watson
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Happened to like Arizona tonight as well at first glance, but I'm not sure about Delgado. Do like your thoughts as always, Bryan. I'll be rooting for ya.

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WestcoastTycoon
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Nice insight Bryan

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