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Dave's MLB Thursday -Free Play -Thu GOW

Thread Starter Dave's MLB Thursday -Free Play -Thu GOW
Dave Essler
Joined: 11/01/2009
Posts: 13970
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Well, headed into Wednesday night we had two tough losses (only way we've lost lately) with the Twins failing to cover the +1.5 in extra innings (they could have stopped at 4-3) and Boston getting the Ortiz blast with two outs. On the heels of the Royals loss last night, deja vu. All three team out-everything'd but scoring. Long season and we're slightly ahead in spite of ourselves, and sorry the free one on Texas fell for you guys.

We've only made one subscriber play, and obviously missed great number(s) in that AZ total (hope some of you got down early) and I am only playing one more, small.

Boston Red Sox -105 

Had some planned surgery this morning and took a little longer to "wake up" than I thought. Trying to get back to most of my clients, who deserved better than yesterday. That's the way we do business, but not all would agree :)

Headed into Wednesday we'd hit 85% of our GOW's and we've isolated on for Thursday already.

Dave's NL GOW or Discounted Long Term Packages

Pirates-Cubs: I suppose if I were to ever bet on the Cubs it would be against a RHP and if I were ever to fade the Pirates it would be against a LHP. Wood is not a bad #4 starter, and he's had reasonable success against the Pirates mano-a-mano. Cole has been very good to us, and is a major ground-ball pitcher, but the Cubs have seen him. Cross-wind with some moisture in Wrigley, and hoping the total comes out at 8 or so so I can take a hard look at the under, and perhaps the dead-dog Cubs.

Miami-Washington: As I type the Fish are already ahead of the -200 Zimmerman, probably at least making some parlay people nervous. Strasburg's body language wasn't very good last game when a teammate made an error, costing a run, so aside from the fact that he's been hit a little, I have to wonder if there isn't something else going on in the clubhouse. With that in mind I am not laying that price, nor the RL for that matter. I don't trust a RHP Koehler against the Nats, either, so perhaps I could get behind the over, since the wind may be blowing straight out. Day game, so we need linueps and bullpen usage for Wednesday.

Brewers-Phillies: The Brewers are the fashionable team these days, but I just watched a balk and an error and they gave up the early lead they had on two hits. Sounds like a few other teams I know. If they continue to play sloppy I may have to look at Lee as a short favorite, although my original thought was to back Estrada. However, neither team has a bullpen, and with the way Wednesday's game is starting they may go through some arms. Another clear night tomorrow with a helping breeze, so at 7.5 we might have to take a shot at the over. Estrada is feast or famine, but Utley and Howard have hit him in limited exposure. 

Atlanta-Mets: Going into Wednesday I had thought I would take Wheeler and then take Hale on Thursday. But, Mejia is a ground ball pitcher that most of the Braves haven't seen, and honestly that's the type that give the free swinging Atlanta team trouble. Hale IS a strikeout pitcher that doesn't walk many, so to me the choices here are the Mets RL and/or the under. It will probably all depend on what, if any, bullpen Atlanta has to use Wednesday. 

Arizona-San Fran: I've completely lost faith in Vogelsong so it would be easy to look to back Delgado here, even easier if Arizona had a bullpen. Delgado was torched in Coors Field, but has had some success against most of the Giants, in particular Buster, which always matters. Vogelsong HAS been hit pretty hard by the D-Backs, so without too much over-thinking here I am leaning Arizona and/or over, again, dependent on bullpen use later on Wednesday.

Minnesota-Oakland: I cannot touch the Twins after what they did to me today, which means we should! They out hit the A's and did everything but win, recovering from a 0-4 deficit in the first when Hughes couldn't find the plate. Straily can be tough, but he's not nearly as effective away from Oakland'd big park. But, that would mean backing Pelfrey, who is only 30 but seems like he's been in the league 15 years. He did pitch reasonably well against the Indians, but of course the pen came crashing down. No pen left on either side, so first team to chase the starter may win. Wind howling out, so it has to go over, no? Day game - lineups.

Boston-New York: It would be just like the Red Sox to build on the Ortiz momentum (damn it) and for Clay to shut the Yankees down. But, how well did Buccholz fare against the Brewers, and can he possibly put up the numbers he did last season. Both Yankees that have done anything with him won't be in the lineup, so I have to lean Boston here. It almost doesn't matter about Pineda. Even if he were back to 100% of whatever he was, I doubt he's pitched against Boston in Yankee Stadium, which is a different animal. A pretty stiff cross-wind expected to left, which may negate some of the short RF porch, so perhaps this stays under as well.

Houston-Toronto: I am simply not laying -215 on the Blue Jays, and said that about Morrow on Wednesday. Parlay or no parlay. That's a complete joke, even if the Jays rout. All the Astros have seen him a couple of times and I refuse to play him in a dome without wind to help the knuckle ball. Wrong as it may be, I do have some rules. With that in mind, the Jays should fare better against the LHP Kuechel, so if the lineups are all the "A" team, at 8.5 I could stomach the over simply because Houston has no bullpen. 

Cleveland-Chicago: Everyone lines up to bet on Salazar. He was hit pretty hard by the Twins, and the Indians come of a double header and now they're road favorites. I don't think so, and I shall look hard at Danks and the White Sox, who if nothing else have been hitting. They've seen Danny Salazar a couple of times, so there won't be any surprises. Only issue here is the first game back and travel for the White Sox, who gave up ten runs to the Rockies. Total of 8 may be doable, but not as warm and not a huge wind help, but I do think it closes at 8.5 eventually. After the DH this is also a wait-for-lineups type game.

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Of any big win we have had, or winning streak, or even coming out of a losing streak, of this I am most proud:

Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind.

I still want to know if all these people on Twitter and Pick-Selling sites claim to have beaten up books for years, I would think there would be no places left to place wagers.

 

"I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!"

mobig wins
Joined: 12/10/2009
Posts: 8260
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WOW Amazing stuff bro!

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB258209155.251065.00
NFL5643156.57665.00
cbelongia
Joined: 09/12/2009
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Like over in morning game, A's will be Lefty heavy if they stick to same lineup and Straily is an air ball pitcher and extra innings this eve/last night-- couldn't help it & bit on Over, (which is contrair to what i see statistically) but the "WIND" !!! Feels like the SF/Arz O/U last night Vegas and books making BS moves.  But I'm often wrong.

Agree A's side-

Sf went to pen early and we have seen enough of Arz to know "Over" is a real good option and $$ juiced to over at current time (-120). My only apprehension is Vogelsong at home can be real good and need to see weather.

Like how the Fish are swinging bats and it seems as if 7.5 -130 is screaming, "Play me Now" well we will see who bites, maybe we get a 7.

I expected the Mets to battle a little better yesterday, but were blanked until late, Mets are really not seeing ball to well hitting below .200 So the under needs a closer look as Hale can bring it! (I Look for a lot of G/O and want to look at BULLPENS Next then maybe make a play-

I Played Hale at (Ev$)-

Dickey -200 wow, how bad is Houston??

Anyway I could be all wrong but Appreciate the Work, Sir!

I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards! 

Dave Essler
Joined: 11/01/2009
Posts: 13970
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cbelongia

Anyway I could be all wrong but Appreciate the Work, Sir!

Great stuff, CB. Let's hope it pays off better than yesterday. Seems like we go fine for a week and then have "one of those days"........

Dave's Home Page w/Marble Count and Daily Message

Dave's 30 Day All Access Package

Follow Dave on Twitter

Of any big win we have had, or winning streak, or even coming out of a losing streak, of this I am most proud:

Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind.

I still want to know if all these people on Twitter and Pick-Selling sites claim to have beaten up books for years, I would think there would be no places left to place wagers.

 

"I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!"

Griff
Joined: 08/20/2009
Posts: 23208
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BOL Mr. Dave & GET MONEY!!!! My Free Play for the day, is a Pass.....fShitsburg & Dickey are as volitaile as nitroglycerin, but so are the teams they are pitching against....good work as always, but not enough value on the board for me today....if anything I'd lean to Over in fading both Strasburg & Dickey as they set those totals low, based purely on name recognition....Wind blowing out 15 MPH in Washington & closed dome in Toronto....got combined from both teams; 8 different batters with above +300 batting averages in Miami/Washington with 6 different guys that have homered off opposing pitches.....got combined 13 different batters with above +300 avg in Astro/Jay game with 3 different batters with Homeruns against opposing pitches......like I said though, I plan on passing till tommorow....Good Luck!

"EVERY DOG HAS HIS DAY"

kjcolby1978
Joined: 03/03/2009
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gotta go with a wait and see approach to Buchholz right now... he looked downright terrible in his first start and so far I have not see anything that makes me believe tonight could be different... my concern is his velocity hanging around 87 mph... and his overuse of cutters (probably to make up for his lack of velocity) which is negating his off speed stuff, changeup and curve just aren't working without the threat of a 92 mph fastball...

Perhaps Clay's injuries have beaten him into an 80mph pitcher already and I am doubtful that he KNOWS how to pitch with that velocity yet... earlier in his career and to start last year he was beating batters with superior stuff which seems to have diminished quite a bit... it remains to be seen if he can regain the overpowering stuff he had...

I just don't have a pulse on this team yet, the offense has a glaring hole at the leadoff spot and as soon as I see Johnny Gomes batting first I cannot wager on this team... the 3rd base disaster so far is not helping either as they really need the power production from that position this year... Ryan Roberts in his 2 starts is 0-4 with a strikeout and 2 GIDP (OUCH)... I like Herrera better in this spot, at least he has speed and expect im to start there against the righty tonight...

Once Victorino and Middlebrooks return we will see what this team is actually going to be this year... I like what I have seen from Sizemore and Bradley so far as Jackie is making a play to remain on the team when Shane returns, especially with Nava and Gomes just killing the offense right now... also Xander Bogaerts looks to be exactly what they thought and what teams coveted which will be a huge offensive upgrade at that position and could offset the loss of Ellsbury somewhat... now if he can just defend...

-Kyle

2014 NFL 31-18

2014 NCAAF 6-7

2014 NBA 4-3

2014 Red Sox Plays 45-41 +0.65u

2013 ALL SPORTS 128-81-4

2012 All Sports 30-25-1

CarsonK
Joined: 02/13/2014
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 Coffee & some Baseball Write-ups by Mr. Essler, that's how i start the morning. Nice job once again. I'm looking for Mr. Dickey to give up some runs today and get yanked my the 4th.

cbelongia
Joined: 09/12/2009
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ONly need to limit "Those Days" and were gonna be fine, it's a long season.  I see my book made a boo-boo cause I did get Hale Ev$ last night.  I Laugh cause he still has to play the game EV or -140, we will see.

The SF game went to 8- guess i had my chance last night.  

I like to look closer at games when I'm off, but like most never seem to have time and Putting in the Time is something One must do in this game and YOU do it well.  Good Luck today Dave!

I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards! 

Bruno Bets
Joined: 11/08/2011
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Great stuff, Mister YesYes

MSSportsCappers
Joined: 05/30/2013
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As always, I love your thoughts. BOL to you tonight my friend!

MLB 2013 Season:

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