New to site

I am new to the site.  Want to win like everyone else and to steal the books money.  Here are my plays and please any feedback would be appreciated.

 

Pit -128

 Pavano is horrible, but he does pitches some gems when all is doubting him.  Not today.  Pavano's ERA is over 7 and going against a Pittsburgh club who loves to hit righties .274  His counterpart Zack Duke's ERA is over 5, but Cleveland struggles against Lefties .250.  After watching yesterdays game and saw Cleveland almost blowing a lead, back the Burgh.  ARGHHHH MATIES

 

Cubs/Tigers Under 8.5

Porcello vs Harden.  You have one pitcher who is on a hot streak(Porcello) vs a pitcher(Harden) who in the past has good stuff but last outing got shelled vs Cleveland.  Being the veteran Harden is, will be focused to stay in the game at least for 6-7 innings to save the horrible bullpen Chicago has.  Let's look at Harden when he is away.  His Away ERA is 2.84 vs Home 6.56 and is WHIP is 1.16 away.  Must be the Ivy at home causing his home ERA.  His counterpart Porcello is the talk of the MLB, but not so fast my friend(sorry Corso). At home his ERA is 4.22 vs Away ERA 3.02 and Home WHIP is 1.41.  These pitchers are reversed for today's game.  Chicago will be focused to end the losing streak vs Detroit and shuts down Detroit and keep it under the posted total.  I will also take the Cubs side as well but I like the under better.

Minnesota -108

I cannot see why people are backing the Brew Crew, but honestly Minnesota has one of the best records in interleague play.  Branden Looper who's last outing was getting hit upon like a crack head hitting his pipe.  Granted he is 3-1 at home but when you have a offense like Milwaukee has you are going to win games, but not today.  Looper home ERA is 4.31 WHIP 1.23.  Last 3  0-1  ERA 7.43 WHIP 1.40.  N Blackburn has been money all season and even though is Away ERA is 3.46, his WHIP is 1.23.  In his last three starts 1-0  ERA 1.88  WHIP .096.  Like that saying, when joe public is favoring one side like they are from the numbers I am seeing on Milwaukee, go the other way, but the numbers don't lie

 

Florida -140

 At first I was loking at the over, but then I really looked at the matchup, I like Nolasco over Berken.  Even though Nolasco has a home ERA 8.55 and is 1-3 I was skeptical.  But, his last three starts he is 1-1 with a ERA 2.50  WHIP 1.11.  His counterpart is away ERA is 24.30 and WHIP 3.00.  His last three 0-2 ERA 10.67 and WHIP 1.88.  Of course the over looks promising, but Nolasco is much better than his ERA indicates and backing the fish.

 

Thanks and good luck to all

Welcome to the website.  I agree with your Twins take..it was my Forum Free Play today. 

Did not see it.  All I saw was the opening line and the vegas line.  I will look on your site now.  Appreciate the reply and glad I am thinking like one of the best in the business

Welcome to the site dude.  As far as your plays go, Florida is my free premium play for today, and I like your UNDER in the Cubs/Tigres game.  No opinion on the other two selections though.

Good luck though with all of your plays!

Welcome Gator, becareful its addictive.

 Welcome to the team gator, best of luck this evening!

Welcome to the sight gatorbait & GREAT 1st post

Nice thoughts on the games Gator and welcome aboard...

I'm not sure where you got your numbers from.. but i don't think Pavano's era is over 7, and i don't think Duke's is over 5...

Also i don't think it's fair to compare Harden's home and away stats... he's only pitched 3 games on the road this season, one was the first series of the season and he was great, but the other two road games were against teams in st. louis and houston who were struggling mightily at the plate at the time.  Harden really has not pitched well all year in my opinion (aside from his very first start).

Love the play on Minnesota.. Blackburn has pitched very well lately, and looper has always been a fade guy in my book.

In the florida game i was actually leaning toward Berken... Nolasco is still throwing way too many fastballs.. he doesn't have enough movement to get away with that, last year was great because he located his change and his slurve/knucklecurve whatever it is, but this year he's lost confidence in those pitches, so until he gets those back in his arsenal he'll continue to get rocked.

 

Good luck on all the plays buddy, and welcome!  

I have to agree - really breaking into Pregame with a BANG! I don't have a template yet, but I hereby nominate this gentleman for the Weekly Contributer prize. Bottom line, I think he's in the running. Always nice to have some fresh blood in here, especially someone that really takes the time to think things through and put together some nice words.