Off to a solid 3-1 start on our paid plays and a perfect 2-0 here with our free releases as Philadelphia pounded Texas 14-10 yesterday. Now on a current 12-5 paid play run and 13-4 with our Game of the Week releases. Tuesday we have our National League Game of the Week, Don't Miss it!
957 SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA
In terms of players looking to improve on their 2013 performance, Matt Cain has to be near the top of the list. Cain, who threw six consecutive 200-inning seasons from 2007-12, posted his highest ERA since his first full season in the Majors in 2006. Look deeper into Cain's numbers and not that much actually changed from the previous season. Realistically, the problem for Cain was that he started out the season poorly and had to play catch-up with his statistics throughout the rest of the season.
In Cain's first nine starts, he posted a 5.43 ERA and allowed 13 home runs. Over Cain's final 128 innings he posted a 3.38 ERA. The home run explosion was definitely an anomaly for Cain, who has always exhibited plus command and was in the top 10 for the NL Cy Young Award in both 2011 and 2012. The expectation for Cain would be a season more along the lines of what he has traditionally accomplished and he's being undervalued in this start.
There are some concerns about Wade Miley entering this season and his five-and-fly effort in Australia didn't do a whole lot to help matters. Miley fought with both his control and command in that start and that was last season's issue as well. Miley's home run and walk rates both went up as his strikeout rate ticked down a notch. Miley relies on command to get by because he's not a big strikeout pitcher. He posted 3.33 and 3.51 ERAs over the last two seasons, but his SIERAs of 3.91 and 3.96 do signal some regression in his future.
Opposing batters slugged .424 at Chase Field against Miley last season when he posted a 4.15 ERA and an ugly 4.59 FIP. That FIP signals that it could have been worse for Miley. Also consider that Miley's control numbers with runners on base underwent a precipitous drop from his numbers from the windup. With men on base, his K/BB ratio fell to 1.94 and all the way to 1.32 with runners in scoring position. Even though Miley posted much better second half numbers, hitters made more solid contact with a line drive percentage of 22.6 percent. Those are a lot of numbers going in the wrong direction and there aren't enough signs of them stopping to like Miley against Cain.
PLAY: SAN FRANCISCO