One thing that always baffled me was the lack of discussion on weather in general when it came to betting on baseball. During football season, you could not talk about a total and not have someone chime in with wind or a pending rain storm coming. The fact is, especially in football, to think the oddsmakers do not have the weather channel and factor all the above into the number is silly. I am not claiming the lines and totals in baseball do not also account for weather conditions, BUT the various variables that effect everything from pitching to how far a ball will travel in no way are 100% accurate on the actuals numbers released for betting purposes. Without going into a full blown physics paper, here are some things to consider when handicapping MLB:

Air:

With the average wind velocity in the United States around 10 miles per hour, any variance can change a potential home run into an out. Using a potential 400 foot homerun in the air for our example, with the average 10 miles WITH the batter it will add up to an extra 30 feet to the that same 400 hit. On the flip side, if the wind (average of 10 miles) is blowing AGAINST the batter it will take about 30 feet off the same exact at-bat. So just using the average wind velocity and not anything outside of the norm, the 400 foot hit will either go 430 OR 370 feet depending on the conditions. That is a big difference, either a home run or an out. Even a small change of + or - 5 miles per hour either way jumps the change up to 45 feet using our example, or a 400 foot hit now going 445 feet.

Looking at air coming side to side of the ball (crosswinds) and not front or back, at 10 miles per hour it will blow a fastball off its target by up to 3 inches. The crosswind effect has even a greater effect on pitchers who tend to throw curveballs and knuckleballs.

Density/Pressure:

With the air density lower, the ball will travel further. With everything 100% equal except the air density, the same hit in Denver will go 9% further versus it being hit in New York. So if someone can hit the ball 400 feet in New York, it would go around 436 feet when playing at the Rockies.

Professional handicappers I have known in the past have used the complex breakdown of weather to kill MLB totals. Besides beating totals, taking the time to know the pitcher in conjunction with the weather is a very dangerous tool if perfected when betting MLB. For example, Pitcher A with the same exact fastball would reach the catchers mitt quicker in Denver versus the same everything in Yankee stadium. In the event of being a pitcher who may use a curveball, he is better off in New York because in Denver it will break on average 3 inches less due to conditions. Experts in the field have estimated the infielders range decreases a foot or so and the outfielders about nine feet when you compare high elevation against a sea level ballpark.

Many of the weather sites now offer "sports weather" pages that show the stadium and conditions over the game. Taking advantage of changes on air or density conditions after the lines are released can be a valuable asset. Maybe conditions are optimal for hitting early in the game, but not the full 9 innings, which can be translated into an edge on betting the 1st 5 innings.

If you want to really become a nerd on this stuff, check out  Robert Adair's “The Physics of Baseball. He is a Yale physicist who wrote an entire book on baseball and the relationship of physics on the game.

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Make sure to "know your ballparks" when firing on #MLB Totals. This includes Weather, Wind, altitude, dimensions, roof open or closed,  etc . . . . . . Also make sure to know what Ball Parks starters do their best work at & have advantages in . . . . Player Matchups key too . . . . and of course KNOW YOUR BULLPENS (who's who and their availability/recent workload . . ) just some factors here for me . . . . . . . . . 

Some umpires matter, too, of course when betting totals. There are a few with a history of strong over or under biases because of the way they call balls and strikes.

Also I rarely, if ever, lay more than $1.50. Once in a while you can find value on a monster favorite, but it's very dangerous if your starting pitcher should have an off-day.

This is a fundamental reminder that many overlook. Sometimes the most important things can also be the most basic one can imagine. KNOW the starting line ups for that day. I cannot begin to tell you how many times when booking I had clients scream **** murder because they would bet a game only to discover as the game began that, oh, Bonds is out of the line up, etc. That type of thing. ALWAYS know, but be particularly wary on sunday or middle of the week get away days. Often managers will sit down some veterans to give me a breather. The lineups on some of those days can have four back ups in it. One other thing. Don't fall into the trap of this team's due. It's a 162 game season and each individual game is it's own animal. Kills me to hear bettors say something like, I just cannot see them getting swept, they're due. The whole due factor will help drain your roll. Baseball is a strange animal. If you don't have self discipline and money management you will be on the sideline by the end of april.

Good luck guys.

It looks like we already have  lot of info here about playing totals so I will take a different route although what I have to say does affect Totals Numbers up and down and not always factored into the betting line. Bullpens are not given the credit they should have and they are very important. And I am not just talking about the closer. The fact is without good middle relievers the Closer is not even important because he is not going to get the opportunity for perform..

Good Middle relievers can and do determine whether a team has a shot at winning their division. A good staff does two things. For one they likely are in the game due to a starter's trouble and they do most often come in a situation where there are runners on base and usually in the key 6th, 7th, and 8th innings. Those innings are often where games are won and lost. The most important thing about Good Middle Relievers is that they ALLOW a Manager to Manage effectively. If you have a poor staff there is a more likely chance that the Manager will leave his struggling starter in a game and that becomes disaster more times than not..

It's also important to monitor the work by these guys because sometimes they are OVER-Worked and especially in the Dog Days of July thru August. Overworked Bullpens are not good for a team's chances to win. I would also suggest that if you are betting a team that has poor middle relievers, to at least consider a 5 Inning Bet, which in effect eliminates those pitchers..

I have a Blog somewhere on here with more info concerning this and I will see if I can find that. It's a few years old but still pertinent..

I found it...

It is almost never a Happy Moment when a Major League Baseball Manager steps onto the field headed to the Mound. But it is much less happier when the Manager has to do it, not knowing whether he is making the right choice or not. I have continually proclaimed that a Good Bullpen can and will make all Major League Baseball teams better and not only because they get people out. The fact is, a Good MLB Pen makes starting pitchers better, and make hitters for the team they pitch for more productive. What did I just say?

Y.E.onDOMReady(show_notes_initially);  

More stuff. Again a few years ago but still pertinent..

Doing Blogs is Tedious work and at some times of the year practically impossible. The CBB Season is one of those times when lines are hopping and distracting myself from them is just not wise. We are now heading into “The Blog Season” and I will be having quite a few of them. This first one is important stuff so make sure to pay attention. I see a lot of people around the Net that Handicap Starting Pitching as their main thrust in picking MLB Games. I believe that most spend way too much time doing this, but more importantly, they spend WAY too much time doing it the wrong way. One off those ways will be spelled out in this piece.

HOW MOST HANDICAPPERS HANDICAP PITCHING
There are many ways that people handicap starting pitching but they generally are related to their performance. I guess that makes sense right? Afterall, it is important how well a Thrower is throwing now, it is important how well he has thrown over his career and this year, and it is important to know how he has thrown at home, and on the road. In addition, it can be important to know how he has done verses certain clubs. The Latter is used way too much but that is another Article altogether.

It is unfortunate though that this is exactly how Sportsbooks want you to look at games, because this is how they set betting lines. The fact is, if Pitcher A is on a 3 Game Win Streak, Odds betting him are not going to be conducive to longterm profit. Should we not be finding value betting a Moneyline Sport?

WE CAN FIND VALUE OPPORTUNITIES
I spend most of my time thinking outside of the box because that is where we learn to be better bettors and that is where we have the Advantage over The Bad Guys. I spend hours, even days, looking for situations that win and that does include with this sport having a Database on each and every Pitcher in both leagues. I have learned a lot of things doing this, and primarily the tendencies of each thrower as to how they react to good outings, bad outings, pitch totals, Home/Away performance, certain types of ballparks, certain types of hitters, etc…

One of the most important things I have learned by working extra hard is that Pitch Totals is a VERY IMPORTANT TOOL to use.

WHAT DO WE MEAN BY PITCH TOTALS?
Most Starting Throwers are one Strict Pitch Counts. That simply means that regardless of how well or poor they are throwing in a particular game, the management is not going to let them exceed that number of throws in a game. However, this rule is bent to some extent. It is for instance bent when a Starter has a Shutout in the works. It is bent when a Starter has a large advantage over the particular hitters that are coming up in the lineup. There are other reasons why the rules are bent but these two are probably the most prevalent. There are also times when a Starter does not even come close to his Pitch Count. There are only 2 Reasons for this. An Injury, or Poor Performance. We are going to look at these two situations and we are going to have examples of each as to how that Thrower performs the next time on the mound.

A PITCHER EXCEEDS HIS PITCH COUNT
Starting throwers have different pitch counts but 95% off them fall in the 95 to 110 Throws per game. Exceeding this number of 110 most often means that a Thrower has Over-Worked, sometimes far Over-worked. In most cases it also means that he has thrown a Good Game, otherwise why would he be asked to Over-Work. This means 2 Things most often. It means that the next time he throws, he is likely to be Over-Valued by Oddsmakers. It also means that he is likely NOT to be as sharp. Are you following me? While Most Handicappers see a Pitcher coming off a Quality Start as a Good Thing, in this particular case, it might not be. I have randomly selected two Pitchers, one in the AL, and one in the NL, to do a case study on this. There are Edwin Jackson, and Derek Lowe. While the selections were random, I did choose two throwers that are “Better than Average” since these guys are the most likely to throw OVER their Pitch Count.

Edwin Jackson: Last Year on 5 Occasions, Jackson threw Over his Pitch Count. The Pitch Totals were 129, 149, 115, 123, and 115. While Overall his numbers for 2010 were good with an ERA of 3.24, following these 5 games his ERA was a Lofty 5.19. And the fact is, only one of these games were even close to being a quality outing, 3 runs in 7 Innings.

Derek Lowe: Lowe had just 3 games that exceeded his Pitch Count with 114, 119, and 112. But Boy did he Suck the next time on the mound. In fact while Lowe had one of his best seasons ever, maybe his very best in fact, garnering a 2.34 ERA for the year, the 3 Outings following these Over-extended Efforts produced 14 Runs in 14.1 Innings worked. Not only was his ERA Near 9.00, but he only managed to throw 4.7 Innings per game. And in fact, his Best Effort was 5.1 innings and 4 runs allowed.

A PITCHER FALLS WELL BELOW HIS PITCH COUNT
With 95 being the Bottom End of Pitch Counts, anything below 80 would be considered well below of what is expected of a Thrower and therefore I have selected that for our exercise. When a Thrower does not meet his Pitch Count it usually means 2 Things. It means that the next time he throws, he is likely to be Under-Valued by Oddsmakers. It also means that he is likely to be MORE sharp. Are you following me? While Most Handicappers see a Pitcher coming off a Poor Start as a Bad Thing, in this particular case, it might be a Good Thing. Why? Because his arm is likely to be more live, meaning his fastball has more zip, and his breaking pitches have more snap. It is also likely if he is a Quality Pitcher, that waiting 5 to 6 days to throw again, allows him time to reflect what went wrong and correct it. The Bottom Line here is that Good Throwers are Good Competitors and a Bounceback is often likely. Let’s look at Lowe last year

Derek Lowe: Last Year Lowe fell below his Pitch count 4 times. Those were on pitch counts of 78, 68, 79, and 78. While Lowe had an outstanding season last year with an ERA of 2.34, the four games following these 4 produced an ERA of just 1.77, or 5 runs allowed in 25.1 innings. His worst outing was 5.1 Innings and 2 runs allowed, his other 3 he allowed just 1 run each.

WHAT DOES ALL OF THIS MEAN?
Well first of all it does NOT mean that every pitcher shows this kind of activity following a High/Low Pitch Total game. However, many do and you have to get to know each one of them. Does this mean they are automatic bets or go againsts? Absolutely not. What it does mean is that some Hurlers exhibit Tired Arms after being Over-Worked, Live Arms after being Under-Worked, and almost in every case, they are Over or Under Valued based on each instance. Can this be a Tool in your Arsenal? Yes. How about an Over-Worked Starter being supported by a Poor Performing Bullpen? BINGO!

BLOGS ? ? Ahh I remember when we had those . .  .  As always great #INFO and knowledge Greg . . . Surely a strong MLB Season coming for u again. BOL

Ha. Yep GF can't wait but I'll probably be chasing your ass all season. :))

Ok, one more. I'm on a roll...Ha..

DOES GODZILLA LIVE IN YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD?

Greg Shaker