MLB 2012 1-2-3 MM RECORD: 309-283-8 ATS | -14.03units
MLB 2012 3-4-5 MM RECORD: 309-283-8 ATS | -9.08units
WNBA 2012 1-2-3 MM RECORD: 42-43-1 ATS | -5.36units
WNBA 2012 3-4-5 MM RECORD: 42-43-1 ATS | -14.90units
Andre Gomes: Best Bets | Free Picks | BlogsBeyond the same-old-handicapping
MLB - 901 Cincinnati Reds @ 902 Philadelphia Phillies
(Starting Pitchers: H. Bailey vs C. Lee)
The Phillies are coming from one of their best offensive games of the season, where they had 15 hits and 12 runs and with every starter having at least one hit. They'll face Bailey today and he is coming from a sequence of four outings where he allowed at least 4 earned runs: 4, 4, 4 and 6 runs. He is definitely struggling right now and he has posted a 9.15 ERA during this stretch in games against the Mets, the Cubs, Pittsburgh and San Diego, four teams who are far from having top offenses. His FIP and xFIP numbers aren't better, so he is definitely struggling this month with a 6.75 ERA, 5.10 FIP and 4.79 xFIP.
Cliff Lee will start for Philadelphia and his only problem has been the homeruns, as he had a 12/0 K/BB ratio against Milwaukee on his last outing. He really needs to limit the homeruns allowed, but the 3 HR he allowed on his last outing were in the Miller Park, the park that saw homeruns this season by a very clear distance. Back at home, I expect Lee to at least have a better performance tonight than the slumping Bailey.
With Philadelphia being in a good offensive moment and with Bailey clearly struggling right now, I believe the Phillies will pound Bailey big time, while Lee should be able to at least limit the damage that the Reds offense may cause to him, especially in comparison with the huge trouble Bailey will be forced into tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking Philadelphia in here.
NOTE: Also available on 5Dimes at -113 / 1.89
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 902 Philadelphia Phillies RL -1 (w/ C. Lee) @ -110 / 1.91 on Pinnacle
Final Score: Cincinnati 5 Philadelphia 4
MLB - 903 Atlanta Braves @ 904 Washington Nationals
(Starting Pitchers: P. Maholm vs S. Strasburg)
After losing yesterday's marathon game that only ended in the 14th inning, Atlanta will start Maholm today and his win over San Diego on Wednesday put him on a great streak of 7-1 and an 1.19 ERA over the last ten starts. On his first three games with the Braves, Maholm had three quality starts, including leaving San Diego with just one run and five hits on his last game.
Washington will be starting Strasburg and he is coming from three wins in a row, but where he somewhat struggled a bit with his control. He walked four batters on his last two games and looking at the fact Atlanta is his nemesis on the league, with a super patient lineup that makes a lot of damage on him, as seen on the fact that the Braves are hitting .313 BA and .861 OPS against Strasburg! So, he will definitely struggle today and also looking at the fact he has never gone further than the sixth inning in his last four starts shows me that Washington will need to use their bullpen today. The problem is that they have been overused on these last few days, especially their closer Clippard, Gonzalez and Stammen, who aren't likely to be available today. So, I expect Washington to struggle on their pitching tonight with both their SP and on their bullpen.
With Atlanta starting an in-form SP and with Washington being very likely to struggle on their pitching tonight, I believe the Braves have an excellent shot of getting revenge from last night's very close loss and get a very good win over Strasburg and the Nationals. Therefore, I'll be taking Atlanta in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 903 Atlanta Braves ML (w/ P. Maholm) @ +128 / 2.28 on 5Dimes
Final Score: Atlanta 1 Washington 4
MLB - 905 Colorado Rockies @ 906 New York Mets
(Starting Pitchers: J. Chacin vs C. Young)
The Mets will be starting Young tonight and he has been terrible this season, especially at home where he is yet to win at home (0-3 with a 4.88 ERA in five starts). He is coming from an outing against Cincinnati that seems good on paper, but in fact he had a lot of luck, as he walked four batters and eight hits in 5.2 IP for a 3.80 FIP and 7.20 xFIP!
Unlike Dickey, Young is a traditional pitcher, as he throws more than +70% fastballs, so Colorado's hitters will definitely look more comfortable tonight than they were last night against the knucker baller Dickey, especially when the Rockies are a top team in hitting fastballs this season, especially this month where they are the best team in the league by far in squashing fastballs.
With Young having a 5.21 FIP and 5.79 xFIP in August, I believe Colorado will put him in a lot of trouble and so, they should at least score four runs tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Rockies to go Over their team total in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 905 Colorado Rockies Team Total Over 3 (w/ C. Young) @ -123 / 1.813 on Pinnacle
Final Score: Colorado 6 NY Mets 2
MLB - 909 Houston Astros @ 910 St Louis Cardinals
(Starting Pitchers: L. Harrell vs A. Wainwright)
Houston will be starting Harrell tonight and he has excellent lately, never allowing more than two runs on his last seven starts. His advanced numbers support these good performances, however the Cardinals will be facing him with one day of rest and with all their batters excluding Beltran. Looking at the fact the Cards' roster is hitting .292 BA and .751 OPS against him, I expect to see Harrell in some trouble tonight, especially with St Louis being in bounce back mode after losing a very important series against Pittsburgh.
On the other hand, St Louis will start their ace Wainwright tonight and it looks like he's back to his pre-Tommy John form. He has a 3.87 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP this season, but his recent numbers are much better, especially on his last three games against good offenses like Arizona, San Francisco and Milwaukee, where he allowed just 2, 1 and 1 earned runs! Wainwright is looking too good right now for the poor Astros offense to make any damage to him tonight.
Even though I don't believe in a very bad outing from Harrell tonight, it seems clear to me that he will be in much more trouble today against the powerful Cards offense in a good spot than the in-form Wainwright against the poor offense of the Astros. As much as Harrell is pitching well, St Louis will eventually score some runs tonight, while Wainwright may even completely shutdown Houston. Therefore, I expect a comfortable win for the Cardinals in here and so, I'll take them on the Runline tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 910 St Louis Cardinals RL -1.5 (w/ A. Wainwright) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5Dimes
Final Score: Houston 0 St Louis 7
MLB - 917 Toronto Blue Jays @ 918 Detroit Tigers
(Starting Pitchers: R. Romero vs M. Scherzer)
Romero is coming from another loss last Wednesday, this time against the White Sox, where he allowed 6 earned runs and 8 hits in 6IP. He is 0-9 with a 7.45 ERA on his last 10 starts and the truth is that he has been so awful that he had allowed more than six runs in five of his last ten starts. He will face Detroit for the first time this season tonight, but the Tigers' roster have a .346 BA and .937 OPS in 107 AB's against him, so I expect Romero to struggle big time again.
On the other side, Detroit will start Scherzer who has conditions to have a good outing in here. He is one of the league leaders in terms of K's and he didn't have less than 8 K's on any of his last six starts. Looking at the fact Toronto has been by far the less patient offense of the league in August with 4.8% BB% (#28) and 22.7% K% (also #28 on the league). Scherzer has six wins on his last seven decisions and after a poor start of the season, he is 11-3 with a 3.71 ERA and a 151/37 K/BB ratio in 116.1 innings since May 1.
I like Detroit's spot to bounce back tonight after two losses in a row by pounding Romero, while Scherzer should handle the impatient offense of the Blue Jays quite well. Therefore, I'll take the Tigers on the Runline today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 918 Detroit Tigers RL -1.5 (w/ M. Scherzer) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Final Score: Toronto 3 Detroit 5
MLB - 921 Los Angeles Angels @ 922 Boston Red Sox
(Starting Pitchers: E. Santana vs A. Cook)
Santana will start for the Angels today and he is coming from a bounce back against Cleveland, where in 7.0 IP, he allowed just four hits and one run, while having a 4/1 K/BB ratio. Still, this inning was just against the Indians, who are probably the worst offense in the league right now. So, it would be possible that Boston would put Santana in a lot of problems, however the Red Sox will be playing tonight without their three batters that usually cause more problems to Santana: Crawford (.313 BA), Ortiz (.292 BA and 1.039 OPS) and Sweeney (.545 BA). With these three players out, I believe Santana will be able to at least be better than walking disaster that Cook is right now.
Boston will start Cook and he is just 1-5 on his last seven starts. He had been put on trade waivers, so even his own team doesn't trust him anymore. He has been horrible and when it looked he was going to have a good outing in Baltimore, he imploded with a 3.38 ERA, 4.41 FIP and 4.96 xFIP. The Angels' roster has been hitting well and they are coming from a series against Tampa Bay, where they hit .294, .366 and .212 BA. They barely know Cook, as he has been a NL pitcher almost his whole career, but Pujols has a .353 BA against him and the Angels have definitely too much hitting skills to not put Cook once again in a very struggling position.
Even though Santana isn't in great form, he is still much better than Cook right now plus the Angels have also more options on offense than the banged up Red Sox. The Angels are coming from a series against the Rays where they were swept, so this is a great bounce back spot for them to crush Cook and get a good win tonight. I'm taking the Angels tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 921 Los Angeles Angels ML (w/ E. Santana) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Final Score: LA Angels 5 Boston 3
MLB - 923 Baltimore Orioles @ 924 Texas Rangers
(Starting Pitchers: C. Tillman vs S. Feldman)
The Orioles will start Tillman tonight and he was winless on his last two starts, including a no-decision against Boston last Thursday, where he allowed three runs in 4.2 IP. He looked in good form previous to these two games, as he had won his previous four hittings, however with just 4 days rest and 110 pitches thrown against the Red Sox, I believe he will be in trouble tonight, especially when he is allowing .279 BA, .832 OPS and 5.14 ERA this season on games where he had just 4 days rest.
On the other hand, Texas will start Feldman, who is coming from two losses in a row against Detroit and the Yankees. He had 5 days rest for this game, but he is coming from a season high of 117 pitches and after a stretch where he looked amazing, he was just average on his last three starts. Also the Orioles' roster is .309 BA and .801 OPS against him, so I believe Feldman will once again struggle on this contest.
With both SP being on a bad spot and with both teams having good batters to expose these problems for both pitchers tonight, I believe this game will turn into a slugfest and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 923/924 Over 9.5 (w/ C. Tillman & S. Feldman) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Final Score: Baltimore 5 Texas 3
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