Perception Vs. Reality Play for Sunday 8/5

Here is my 2nd play of this type.  First one won in style with the Rockies beating the Cardinals 8-2 a few days ago.

Texas at Kansas City

Perception:

Texas is starting to roll again, as Josh Hamilton is heating back up.  The last place Royals have lost 7 of the last 10 games an looks to avoid the sweep while throwing out a pitcher with a 5.22 ERA. Looks like a very nice price for the now surging Rangers in the think of a pennant race.

Reality:

Derrick Holland is not having a good year, plain and simple.  And his lifetime numbers agains KC (4.57 ERA) are nothing special.   On the surface it looks like Hochevar is worse than Holland.  However, He's pitched quite well over the last month and a half or so, and has not lost to the Rangers in two career starts.  Hamilton and Kinsler have just one hit between them in Hochevar in 19 at bats.  If those guys continue to struggle againt Hochevar, I like the Royals chances of salvaging a game in this series.

1* Kansas City +145

Other Plays:

1* Miami +220

1* Chicago Cubs +170

1* Cincinnati -110