Atlanta Braves (-205) 2 Units
Orioles/Rays Under 7.5 (-120) 2 Units
LA Dodgers RL -1 1/2 (-135) 2 Units
Dodgers Team Total Over 4 (-120) 2 Units
Indians Team Total Over 3.5 (-120) 1 Unit
Indians ML 1st 5 inn (+170) 1 Unit
MLB 2013: 3-6 -8.06 UnitsNPB 2013: 5-3 +3.35 Units
MLB 2011: 53-31-4 +30.38 Units MLB 2010: 12-12 +3.96 Units MLB 2009: 47-35 +15.27 Units
I know, this is a big favorite. Nobody likes to lay this much juice, but I just can't help but feel there is value with this wager. Trust me, it is not something i like to do. Parlay it or go with the runline if you must. Its up to you
At -205, we need the Braves to win 67.2% or more of the time. Another way to look at is the Astros must win less than 32.8% of the time.
WITH THAT IN MIND...............
The Astros are 10-45 (18.2%) on the road this season
The Astros are 13-49 (21%) in their last 62 overall
The Astros are 3-29 (9.4%) in their last 32 overall
The Astros average just 3.48 runs per 9 innings against left handed pitching
The Astros average just 2.51 runs per 9 innings on the road against left handed pitching (.190 batting average).
The Astros are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
So the Houston Astros are pathetic against left handed pitching and they are running up against a left handed pitcher who has been on quite a role.Paul Maholm (9-6, 3.74 era) comes into the game with 6 consecutive starts of at least 6 innings and 1 earned run or less. Since June 29th, He is 5-0 with a 1.00 era.
Maholm does have 1 start against Houston this year:
8 1/3 inn4hits1 walk0 runs
Backing up Maholm is a bullpen who has been on fire lately
Over the last 10 games, the Atlanta bullpen has a 0.29era / 0.82whip
Lucas Harrell is taking the mound for Houston and he has pitched very well lately. Its simply hard to get wins when you pitch for Houston. He has 4 straight starts of 2 er or less and his record in those games is 1-3. Despite good pitching as of late, Harrell has struggled on the road this year, sporting a road record of 2-6 with a road era of 5.71.
The Atlanta bats are hot right now, averaging 5.64 runs per game over their last 10 games.
Atlanta is 43-23 against right handed starters.
Backing up Harrell will be the worst bullpen in Major League Baseball.
Astros are 1-4 (20%) in Harrells last 5 starts. Astros are 0-4 (0%) in Harrells last 4 road starts.
Astros are 2-10 (16.7%) in Harrell's 12 road starts this season
The Braves are 20-7 (74.1%) over their last 27 games
The Braves are 20-6 (76.9%) last 26 games vs. a right handed starter
The Braves are 5-0 (100%) last 5 home games vs. a right handed starter
The Braves are 8-1 (88.9%) in their last 9 home games.
The Braves are 14-3 (82.4%) in last 17 meetings between Braves/Astros
tremendous breakdown once again. will play the RL!
This is a matchup of Wei-Yen Chen (9-6, 3.65 era) and Jeremy Hellickson (6-6, 3.23 era)
Wei-Yen Chen is quietly having a very good rookie campaign in his 1st year of Major League Baseball. Chen has given up 3 er or less in 5 of his last 6 starts and is coming off a career high 12 Ks in 5 2/3 innings. He posted a very good 3.44 era in the month of July. Over his last 3 starts he owns an era of 2.79 and a whip of 1.09
Chen will be facing a Tampa Bay team that does not enjoy left handed pitching. The Rays are averaging just 3.98 runs per 9 innings against LHP (3.81 at home). Over their last 10 games the Rays are averaging just 3.25 runs per 9 innings against left handed pitching.
The Orioles bullpen owns a 2.65 road era to back Chen up.
Hellickson is having a good year as well. He posted a 2.67 era in 5 starts during July. All 5 starts were of the quality variety. Over his last 3 starts he has a 1.96 era and a 0.60 whip. This will be a night game and Hellickson owns a 2.81 era in 13 starts at night this year.
Hellickson has pitched against Baltimore 3 times this year, going 19 2/3 innings while only giving up 12 hits and 2 walks. That has been good enough for a 2.29 era and a 0.71whip.
Tampa Bay's bullpen owns a 2.30 home era on the year and over their last 10 games they have a 0.65 era.
The two starting pitchers have combined for 11 overs and 26 unders
Under is 19-7-1 in Orioles last 27 road games.
Under is 20-7-1 in Orioles last 28 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 5-1 in Chens last 6 road starts.
Under is 4-1 in Chens last 5 starts overall.
Under is 11-3 in Rays last 14 overall.
Under is 6-1 in Rays last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 102-48-8 in Rays last 158 home games.
Under is 40-17-4 in Rays last 61 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 21-5-2 in Hellickson's last 28 home starts.
Under is 5-1 in Hellickson's last 6 starts vs. Orioles.
Under is 20-5-1 in the last 26 meetings in Tampa Bay.
I love that Dodgers RL play Mike. Great breakdowns and BOL to you tonight.
I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!
This is another game where I just don't see another way around it. I don't want to lay -135 on the runline, but I think it's justified.
Clayton Kershaw (8-6, 2.95 era) will take the mound for the Dodgers. He is having another tremendous season overall with a 2.95 era and a whip of just 1.06. Opposing batters have just a .611 OPS against Kershaw and it doesn't matter what side of the plate they come from. He is controlling both sides. Only a few of the Cubs hitters have ever seen Kershaw. Soriano is the only one with any success
In 12 starts (84 inn) at home, Kershaw has a 2.36 era to go along with a 5-3 record.
The Dodgers bullpen is pretty decent and actually have a 2.48 era at home this year.
The Cubs have one of the worst offenses in the league. The Cubs .639 OPS against lefties is 2nd worst in MLB, ahead of only Houston. The Cubs are averaging just 2.82 runs per 9 innings on the road against left handed pitching.
I know the Dodgers offense is anything but spectacular. However, the starting pitcher they are facing tonight should be a gift for them tonight. Chris Volstad is 0-7 with an era of 7.94 in 9 starts. That is horrible. The only reason he is back up in the show is due to Chicago's deadline moves (shipping out Dempster and Maholm). His Major League numbers are not some sort of aberration. He wasn't much better in the AAA PCL for the Iowa Cubs
Volstad's AAA Numbers
12 starts 3-5 record71 1/3 innings 5.17 era86 hits 1.47 whip19 walks .296 opposing BA
He was getting LIT UP in the minors!!! This is obviously not a promotion the Cubs wanted to make.
Of course, the Cubs bullpen is horrible as well. They have a 4.53 overall era, which jumps all the way up to 5.13 on the road.
The Cubs are just 16-37 on the road.
The Cubs are 0-9 in Volstads last 9 starts.
Not your average plays, but I do see value
BOL on all your plays Mikey