MLB Friday... PA's Keep Winning!!!

Yesterday was a rough one overall, but i did win my 4 Unit play and hit both of the Extra Power Angles that I have daily. They are now on an amazing 19-3 run. FYI I do play small wagers on those plays as well and work is done on those plays also. I don't just see the angle and say this one looks cool anbd put it out there. I have to feel that the play can win. They are all rated a 1 unit. My Power Angle Plays are a bit different. I feel even stronger about those and thus make them as a top play. On to today. Let's start off the weekend right.

STAT OF THE DAY--- CC Sabathia is an incredible 24-4 in his home team starts in August and September.

TOP PLAYS

4 UNIT PLAY

Kansas City/ Texas Under 9.5: So how does one take an Under in game where one team just scored 26 runs in their last 2 games and are facing a pitcher named Guthrie? It's easy. It's called letdown. Both Physical and Mental. Texas is off a very emotional game vs the Angels and have used a ton of energy in two come-from behind wins in the last 2 nights. I really don't see this offense getting up for this one, and that should negate some of the inefectiveness of Guthrie. Jeremy has a solid 3.90 ERA in 9 career starts vs Texas, but an even better 2.58 ERA in 5 career starts vs them outside of Rangers Ballpark. Also knowing that Matt Harrison is on the mound for the Rangers could hinder their offense a bit as they know they may not have to score a ton of runs to get the win here. Matt has a solid 3.01 ERA on the road and while he was hit a bit in his last 2 starts overall he did come into those two starts having allowed 2 ER's or less in his previous 7 games. Matt does have a 4.37 ERA in 4 career starts vs the Royals, but just one of those have been here and he allowed 1 ER in 6.2 innings in that game. He will be facing a KC team that really struggles vs lefties as they have averaged just 3.6 rpg vs them overall and just 3.3 rp/9 innings off of them at home. KC has also hit just 18 of their 84 total HR's off of lefties on the year. We have a tired offense and a team that can't hit lefties taking on one good starts and one starter that has had good success vs their opponent. Looks like a recipe for an Under to me. No more than 7 runs in this one. Oh and this ISN'T a PA Play, but still take a look at the Extra Power Angle for this play below.

3 UNIT PLAYS

Houston/ Atlanta Over 8: Last night I had the Under in the Atlanta/ Miami game and it was a winner. Whew. LOL Anyway i will head the other way with this one.  Tim Hudson has been pitching very well of late, with a 3.15 ERA in his last 3 starts, but he still has a 4.84 ERA and a slightly elevated WHIP of 1.40 at home on the year. His home starts have averaged 9.4 rpg, while his night starts have put up 9.91 rpg. Tim does have a 2.34 ERA in 8 career starts vs the Astros, but 6 of the 8 starts saw 8 or more runs scored, while the 3 starts here vs them averaged 11.3 rpg. Armando Gallaraga has just 1 starts on the year and he allowed 2 ER's in 5 innings vs Pittsburgh in that start. Armando has never been a great starter as he has an ERA of 4.59 in 87 career starts, while on the road he has a 4.91 ERA in 47 appearances (43 starts). The Braves are HUGE faves in this game and in Armando's 30 career losses he has a 7.07 ERA. Overall this Houston staff has allowed 6.04 rpg on there road and Atlanta should easily hit at least that mark, especially since they have put up 6 or more runs in 6 of their last 8 games and they average 6.4 rpg for Tim in his night starts. I like the RL in this game as well, but made it a lesser play, still I expect a ton of runs from a very good Atlanta offense, while Houston should be good for at least 3.

POWER ANGLE PLAY (10-1 Last 11)

LA DODGERS -154 over Chicago: Coming off a tough divisional matchup is not easy for any team, but the Dodgers were swept in their 3 game home set vs the Arizona, so some desperation has to set in here and what better way to get it back than to take on the 2nd worst road team in the league. Jeff Samardzija has been very good in his last 5 starts, but he can struggle on the road, with a 4-5 mark and a 4.71 ERA. Cahd Billingsley has had some problems this year and he is 1-4 with 4.32 ERA at home on the year, but he is pitching with confidence right now after road starts at St Louis and San Francisco saw him allow just 1 ER in 13.1 innings of work.  Behind these two starters the Dodgers get a big bullpen edge as they have a pen ERA of just 2.51 at home, while the Cubs have a pen ERA of 5.16 on the road.  Chicago is just 15-36 in their last 51 road games, while the Dodgers are 22-8 in their last 30 games on Friday. LA Needs this one in the worst way and they should get it vs a team that really struggles on the road. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2008 the Dodgers are 30-5 as a home favorite vs a NL opponent when they are off a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits, used 2 or more pitchers and it's not the last game of a series.  

NY Yanks/ Seattle Under 9: Six games have been played between these teams this year and no more than 8 runs have been scored in those games. In fact dating back to last year the last 8 in this series has put up no more than 8 runs. CC had a rough start in his last outing, but then again he always struggles vs Boston. In his 4 start before Boston he had a 1.94 ERA and at home this year he has a 2.78 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. The Yanks offense does average 5.02 rpg at home, including 5.25 rpg in CC's home starts and that is fine because CC has allowed 1 ER or less in his last 7 starts vs the M's, while the Yanks as a team have allowed 2 ER's or less in each of CC's last 7 starts vs Seattle. Kevin Milwood has a solid 3.52 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP on the road, with his road starts averaging just 7.9 rpg. Over his career Milwood has struggled with the yanks but in 2 starts this year he has a 2.57 ERA vs them. Kevin has allowed 5 total ER's in his last 3 starts vs the Yanks and he has allowed and he has allowed no more than 3 ER's in 7 of his last 9 starts overall. Seattle does hit .260 and score 4.67 rp/9 off of lefties on the road, but as a team they have hit just .153 and have knocked in just 2 runs in 98 AB's off of this lefty.  I expect no more than 7 in this one. (Push)

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAYS

ATLANTA -1.5 (-130) over Houston 

SAN DIEGO +1.5 (-150) Over NY Mets 

1 UNIT PLAYS

Washington/ Miami Under 8.5 (GAME 1)

LA Angels -139 over CHICAGO

 

2 EXTRA POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (19-3 RUN)  ( +14.45 UNITS)

Since 2009 Toronto is 1-33 as a road dog when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they allowed at least 4 walks and did not hold a 3+ run lead. Play on Oakland -130 over Toronto

Since July of 2011 the Under is 13-0 when Kansas City is a dog of 140+ after scoring 6 or more runs in a night game. Play On Kansas City/ Texas Under 9.5