Nice night last night avoiding the carnage that wreaked havoc throughout MLB. Another day, another dollar. My favorite time of year. Let's get 'em, Pregamers!
Two (**) I am submitting early as I cannot see any favorable movement (will add notes);
**Oakland Athletics (-114) LOSS - Tommy Milone has easily been one of baseball's most reliable starters at home posting a ridiculous 0.91 ERA and .184 BAA. Among his opponents have been the Yanks twice, the Tigers and the Angels. He's not fattening up on weak teams. Expect another fine showing against an inconsistent Rays' team. Athletics are 23-5 in their last 28 games vs a right-handed starter. Athletics are 7-1 in Milone's last 8 home starts. There are a couple of favorable Rays' trends, but not this night, IMO.
Oakland Athletics -1½ (+190) LOSS ½ unit - Can't see the Rays scoring more than 1 or 2.
**Toronto Blue Jays/Seattle Mariners Under 7 (-115) LOSS - Under is 23-8-2 in Mariners' last 33 overall. Under is 22-6 in Mariners' last 28 vs American League East. Under is 5-1-1 in Blue Jays' last 7 road games. Under is 4-1-1 in Blue Jays' last 6 games as a road underdog. Line has already moved more than I'd like for a Seattle side play. We'll see.
The line is more than I like to risk, but I can't see the Nats and Strasburg losing this one at home. I think it may get ugly for Lee, so I'll pass on the total.
Baltimore Orioles (+162) WIN - Weiters heating up and feasts on Nova. Tex out for the Yanks. Nova has a 5.19 ERA at home for a reason. He allows RHB a .302 BAA. Conversely, Tillman has been holding RHB to a .125 BAA. Hopefully this means that when the dangerous Grandy/Cano come up, there will be few on base. Looks like the O's bring their "A" game when dissed by the public. Orioles are 10-3 in their last 13 road games vs a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Orioles are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200. Orioles are 6-1 in their last 7 road games. Yankees are 0-5 in their last 5 vs a team with a winning record. Yankees are 1-4 in Nova's last 5 starts vs a team with a winning record. You can always find trends in the Yanks' favor. Determining what "may" be relevant is the key when using trends. NEVER over-think them.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-118) LOSS - Back to the well with the Dodgers. As poorly as Cap has been doing lately, he still owns a 1.69 ERA at home. I have had young Miley on the fade list and will continue to do so. Veterans become so with their ability to bounce back. Expect a gem from Cap tonight. Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs a left-handed starter. I know, I know! Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs a left-handed starter. The difference, friends is that only one of these teams has Matt Kemp. Dodgers are 6-1 in Capuano's last 7 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Diamondbacks are 3-7 in their last 10 road games. The total of 7 may be in danger first time through the line-ups.
Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ (+180) LOSS ½ unit
The WSox/Twins match-up is an interesting one. Do you use Liriano's home or away splits? There is a 100 point difference (and about 2 runs/game) in BAA. It has been his mound for years, so the home splits are likely more apropo, however it is a probable pass for me. See how he does against his old friends who coincidently have no trouble with LHP. I am going to say that the Twins are the right side here, but it'll likely be a No Play for me. Sets up very much like Wandy's return to Houston in which his team eked out a narrow win for him. IMO, Rodriguez is a better (certainly more reliable) pitcher than Liriano and I expect a similar game with a different outcome. Certainly not high on the list, however.
Anyone considering a Cubs' play, as I am, be sure to play "Listed Pitchers", as there is a very good chance Dempster may be dealt at the last minute today. Pass.....looks like a new Marlin team.
Cleveland Indians/Kansas City Royals Over 9½ (-110) WIN (3rd inning) - Can't imagine this staying Under, but stranger things have happened.
Houston Astros/Milwaukee Brewers Over 8½ (-105) WIN (5th inning) - Expect this too be a little more Brewer heavy on the total, but again with a couple balls leaving the yard for both teams. Gallardo enduring a tough stretch. Going to suggest NOT to play the Crew in ANY form this night.
Although I agree that the Cards are likely the play, let's not overlook the fact that old Francis has already beaten them this month in St Louis and owns a 6-1 career record against them. I think that this may be a very dangerous spot for them. Definitely better plays on the slate. Another look a bit later.
New York Mets (+135) LOSS - Although I usually stay clear of 2nd time starters, Harvey was so poised and dominant his first start that there is NO chance of fading him here. With the Giants sliding and Lincecum on the hill, I'll take my chances. There was a time that I expected Timmy to end ANY slide, but not at this point. I do expect this game to go Over the total.
Rooting for the Baltimore Mets and the New York Orioles at >5/1 LOL;
New York Mets (+135) LOSS
Baltimore Orioles (+160) WIN
Get 'em, Pregamers!
BOL to you tonight Bruno. Good job last night.
I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!
Thanks, Jeff. Tonight we slam the books!
Awesome insight as always. BOL Bruno
Thanks, my man. As always, get 'em, LJ!
Good luck buddy!!!
2012 NFL 33-29 (+13.55 units)
2012 CFB 34-35 (+6.90 units)
2012-2013 CBB 271-220-16 (+71.10 units)
2012-2013 NBA 4-5-1 (-4.20 units)
Thanks, bro. Back at ya!
I like your write-ups, they are a must read. Your Dodger pick will be aided by a frenzied sell out crowd tonight at Dodger Stadium on Kirk Gibson bobble head night. Seeing his famous HR played over and over on JumboVision will inspire Eithier, Kemp, and Hanley. Good luck today, Bruno !! $$$
Thanks, PD. I expect Mark Ellis to do some major damage tonight with his 1.182 OBP vs Miley, too. Good luck!
Final analyses to be done, but specs submitted for your light lunchtime reading. Get 'em, Pregamers.