MLB Monday... 5-2-1 Overall... Top Plays 3-1!!!

Boy I wish I could just bottle last week for the rest of the year. I went 28-11 overall my last 6 days and 9-3 in my top plays the last 3 days. Now take a gander at the bottom of the page and you will see that I have fought my way to plus units in my top plays. 8 Weeks ago I was -48 units in my top plays, but now im at +1.56. That's nearly +50 units for the 8 week period in my top plays. Overall this season i am up 41.94 Units in baseball. I look to keep it going this week.

(All Plays Are Action)

3 Big Trends Of The Day

The Under is 11-0 in Boston's last 11 vs the AL West

The Yankees are 11-1 off a game in which they allowed 5 or more runs.

The Under is 24-4-4 in the Reds last 28 games overall 

TOP PLAYS

3 UNIT PLAYS

Boston +125 over TEXAS: Google News Play (11-4 L15) I don't play a lot of dogs, but i am always looking for a good spot to do so and I feel this is the perfect spot. The Sox have missed David Ortiz' bat of late, but that may even out in this series, considering the slump that Hamilton is in of late. Hamilton has some good numbers in this series, batting .381 with 23 RBI's since 2010 vs the Sox, but he is really pressing right now and may not break out vs a hot pitcher in Felix Doubront. Felix has a 2.70 ERA in the month of July and has been solid on the road this year with a 5-1 mark and a 3.09 ERA. Felix is one of the best in league at getting run support (6.83 rpg) and the Sox are 7-1 in his road starts and have given him 6.3 rpg away from home. Boston should break out of their funk some here as they will be facing Scott Feldman, who was 2-5 with a 7.34 ERA in his 8 starts before getting sent to the pen. He also allowed 2 runs (6 Earned) on 10 hits in just 2.2 innings of work in his lone start vs Boston this year. The Sox need this one bad, they have the pitching advantage, Texas is off a tough emotion series vs the Angels and they are home off a long road trip. Add it all up and you get a solid play on the dog in this one. 

POWER ANGLE PLAY

Chicago +130 over PITTSBURGH: You all know how much I hate the Sharp,s but I have to follow them here and even better is that this play is backed by a solid 85% winning situation. When this game came out last night and I looked at the pitching matchup and what the pirates have just come off of I said this play will be making my card today. Jeff S. has been pitching very well for the Cubs of late, with a 1-1 mark and a 2.37 ERA in his last 3 starts. He has struggled on the road (3-5 with a 5.40 ERA), but in his last 2 road starts he has pitched better with a 2.57 ERA and the Pirates struggle to hit and score at home, hitting just .233 vs righties and scoring just 3.76 rpg at PNC this year. Erik Bedard is off a solid outing in Colorado, but he is still 2-4 with a 5.79 ERA in his last 7 starts. The Cubs offense has put up just 1 run in their last 3 games, but that won't last and I expect them to have good success tonight. The Pirates are off a big 3 game sweep over the Marlins, so they may not be as focused here as they take on the 2nd worst road team in the league. The Cubs played here earlier in the year and were swept, but they played hard in losing 2 of the 3 by 1 run. The lone blowout was when Bedard was on the mound, but that was his first start vs Chicago, so know that advantage is gone for Pittsburgh, while the Cubs get the advantage of Pittsburgh never having seen Jeff S. Look for Chicago to steal game 1 here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2004 Pittsburgh is just 3-17 in game 1 of a home series off a win in which they drew at least 1 walk and were not more than a .250 dog in that win. 

Philadelphia/ Milwaukee Over 7.5: Roy Halladay has not been his normal Dominant self this year, with a 3.96 ERA overall. He did come back from the DL to have a solid outing vs the Dodgers, but that was also in a pitcher's park and in his last start here he did allow 5 ER's to Washington. Roy also has a 4.64 ERA in 3 career starts vs the Brewers as a member of the Phils. The Brewers offense struggled in Cincinnati and they score just 3.5 rpg on the road, but they are due to break out and should do just that vs the Phils here, plus the Brewers have scored 4.7 rpg for Randy Wolf on the road. Halladay went just 5 in his last start due to being on a pitch count and if he gets yanked here early then  he will hand the ball over to a Phils pen that has struggled at home with a 4.46 ERA. The Phils offense is healthy right now and could have a major breakout tonight vs Randy Wolf. Randy has allowed 4 ER's or more in 4 of his last 5 starts, with a 6.82 ERA over that stretch. He has a 6.86 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP on the road, with his road starts averaging 10.7 rpg. Even if the Brew Crew is held to 3 runs, the Phils should be good for at least 5 of their own. Still I see both teams putting up at least 4 in this one as it easily goes over 7.5.
 

NY Yanks -157 over SEATTLE:  The Yanks are off a 4 game series vs Oakland, in which they were swept. This is one angry bunch and they should bounce back nicely here. Hiroki Kuroda has been pitching very well of late for the Yanks as he is 4-12 with a 3.45 ERA in his last 7 starts. The Yanks are just 3-5 in his road starts overall, but in his last 4 road starts they are 3-1 and he has a 3.37 ERA in those starts. Overall the Yanks have won his last 5 starts. It's just the opposite for Kevin Milwood, as the M's have lost his last 5 starts and he comes in 0-2 with a 4.58 ERA in his last 7 starts. He has allowed just 2 total ER's in his last 2 starts vs the Yanks, but is still just 1-2 with a 4.70 ERA bin his last 5 starts vs them. The Mariners are the worst scoring home team in the league at 2.86 RPG, while the Yanks are 5th best at scoring on the road (4.83 rpg). The Yanks are still 6 games ahead of Baltimore in the AL East, but don't want to get into a losing habit, so I look for them to take some frustrations out on Seattle tonight. They have the better pitcher and better offense and should get back on track tonight.

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAYS

SAN FRANCISCO -154 over San Diego 

ST LOUIS -131 over Los Angeles Dodgers Google News Play

Colorado/ Arizona Over 9 (PUSH)

1 UNIT PLAY

ARIZONA -1.5 (-110) over Colorado 

2 POWER ANGELS FOR TONIGHT (4-0 Last 4) (12-8  +1.91 UNITS)

Since 2004 Arizona is 11-0 (8-3 vs the RL) as a 130+ favorite if their starter went at least 8 innings in his last start and they beat a non-div opp by at least 4 runs in that start. Play On Arizona -1.5 (-110) over Colorado

Since 2008 the Giants are 20-5 in the first game of a home series, if they are off a loss as a dog. Play on San Francisco -154 over San Diego 

One more thing. I have been doing my CFB Previews if anyone cares to take a gander at them. I will post the links for the previews here as I continue to do them over the next couple of week.

Atlantic Coast Conference Preview

Big East Conference Preview 

Big 10 Conference Preview