MLB Saturday...6-2 Overall... Top Plays 3-1!!!

MY PRAYERS AND WISHES GO OUT TO MARCO FOR A SPEED RECOVERY

Last night was a good one as I went 5-3 overall and 3-1 in my top plays. Should have been a 6-2 night, but we all know what happened in Washington. Unreal. Let's Keep it rolling today.

TOP PLAYS

4 UNIT PLAY

POWER ANGEL PLAY

ARIZONA -1.5 (+105) Over Houston: The Astros are the worst road team in baseball this year at 10-39 and they have been outscored by 3.34 rpg in their 39 road losses. In their last 30 road games they are just 4-26 and have been outscored by 4.04 rpg in the 26 losses. The Diamondbacks started off the year with 3 straight 1 run home wins, But that has changed in their last 21 home wins on the year. In their last 21 home wins the D-Backs have won 18 of those games by 2 runs or more, including their last 9. Last night the Astros tagged Trevor Cahill for some runs, but I don't see that happening vs Wade Miley tonight. Wade is 6-2 with a 2.62 ERA at home this year and has allowed just 1 ER in 3 of his last 4 starts at Chase Field, with the D-Backs outscoring their opponents by an 18-3 count in those 3 starts. The D-Backs are 10-5 in Wade's starts and have outscored their opponent by at least 2 runs in each one of those 10 wins. Houston really struggles vs lefties on the road as they have hit just .188 and have scored a mere 2.6 rp/9 off of southpaws away from home. Conversely the D-Backs crush lefties at home, hitting .272 and scoring 6.4 rp/9 off of them here at Chase. Dallas Keuchel is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA in 4 starts this year. Houston is 1-3 in his starts and all 3 losses have been by 2 runs or more. Look for another easy win for the D-Backs here.  POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY-- Dr. Ed gave this one out and I like it. The Astros are 1-19 vs the RL at night when seeking immediate revenge for a night loss in which they allowed at least six runs and more than two walks.  




 

3 UNIT PLAYS

NY Mets/ Dodgers Over 8.5: Google News Play A few days ago I had a thread on some OVER stats that the Mets have when they take on a left handed pitcher so it's only logical I go with the OVER in this one. When the Mets have faced a lefty this year there has been an average of 11 rpg being scored and the Over has gone 27-5-3 in those games. At home the Over is 10-1-1 in their last 11 games when they have faced a lefty with an average of 11.2 rpg being scored. The last 5 home games this situation has come up there have been at least 10 runs scored in each game. Aside from those stats we do have pitchers on the mound that should give up some runs. Chris Capuano has been awesome at home this year, but on the road he has been hit some with a 4.13 ERA. In his last 4 road starts he has allowed 4 ER's or more in three of those games. He also has a 5.90 ERA in 6 starts vs the Mets. Miguel Batista has a good home start and a bad home start in his 2 starts here and overall he has a 5.66 ERA, allowing 25 hits and 11 walks in 20.2 innings of work at Citi Field this year. 13 runs were scored last night and I expect at least 10 or 11 in this one. 

St Louis -143 over Chicago:  Google News Play Really like the Cards here. Matt Garza has always been a better pitcher at home than on the road and this year is no exception. Matt is 3-1 with a 2.12 ERA, while on the road he has gone 2-6 with a 5.67 ERA. Even in this series we find the same kind of stats. Matt has gone 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in 3 starts at Wrigley, but in 2 career starts here he is 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA. The Cubs as a team have struggled on the road this year going 14-33, compared to 24-21 at home. St Louis had a tough road trip, but they got back on track last night. Their offense has been struggling, but should have some confidence here after breaking Dempster's 33 inning scoreless streak by getting 4 ER's on 7 hits in 6 innings. At home the Cards have hit .277 and have scored 4.9 rpg, while the Cubs hit just .247 and have scored just 3.6 rpg on the road. Jake Westbrook has been pitching pretty good of late as he is 3-3 with a 3.26 ERA in his last 7 starts, while at home he is 4-3 with a 4.23 ERA. St Louis is looking to keep pace with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati so dropping a home game to one of the worst road teams in baseball is not an option here. 

Atlanta/ Washington Over 8.5 Game 2: (Added): Earlier in the year Nationals Park was not a place were you would see high scoring games, but after last night's 21 runs were scored there has been an average of 10.5 rpg in the last 10 games in this park. Pitching has been a problem for the Nats of late especially at home, where they have allowed 4.9 rpg in their last 10 games, compared to under 3.75 rpg allowed through their first 24 home games. John Lannan gets the call tonight and will be making his first start of the year. He has never been one to go deep into games as he has averaged just 5.8 innings pitched in his 128 career starts, including averaging just 5.59 inning pitched in his 33 starts last year. That is big considering the fact that the Nats pen has an ERA of 5.67 in their last 10 games and 7.52 in their last 5 games. That should mean some late runs here. The Braves offense comes in scoring a healthy 5.4 rpg in their last 10 games and they do average a solid 4.8 rpg on the road. The Nats Offense for much of the year had been scoring right around 3.6 rpg at home, but in their last 11 home games they have scored 4 or more runs 9 times and have averaged 5.7 rpg over that stretch. They will take aim at a struggling Randall Delgado, who has a 7.15 ERA in his last 3 starts overall and a 5.73 ERA on the road this year. Randall faced the Nats once this year and allowed 4 ER's on 8 hits in 4 innings in that one. Both offense are playing well right now and with a very shaky starter on on side and a poor bull pen on the other, there should be no problems for this game to hit at least 10 runs.  

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAY

Angels/ Texas Over 8.5 

PITTSBURGH -151 over Miami 



 

1 UNIT PLAYS

PHILADELPHIA -125 over San Francisco 

Tampa Bay/ Seattle Under 7.5