MLB Wednesday... 6-1 Tonight... Top Plays 2-1!!!

Well I had a losing day in my top plays (1-2-1), but I did hit another 4 Unit Play, give me a nice little 6-1 run in games rated 4 and 5 Units. Overall I did finish 4-3-1 so all was not lost.

TOP PLAYS

4 UNIT PLAY

Tampa Bay/ Cleveland Under 8: Lets start off with a few trends here. The Under is 47-17-4 in the Rays last 64 home games vs a team with a losing road record... The Under is 21-3-2 in Hellickson's last 36 home games with a total set at 7 to 8.5... The Under is 4-1 the last 5 meetings here... The Under is 13-5 when umpire Dan Issognas is behind home plate. Jeremy Hellickson has always pitched well in this park as he has a 2.72 Career ERA here, but a 11-10 home record would indicate allot of low scoring games. This year just 6.1 rpg have been scored in his home starts and the UNDER is 7-1 in those games. Jeremy was rocked for 8 ER's a few weeks ago at home by the Mets, but an injury may have been the cause of that as he went on the DL right after that game. In his last 10 starts that was the only game in which he allowed more than 3 ER's and not one of the other 9 games saw more than 8 runs scored. Jeremy has faced Cleveland once this year and once last year and has allowed just 2 total ER's in 13 innings of work in the two games, with neither game putting up more than 7 runs. Justin Masterson was rocked for 8 ER's vs the Rays a couple of starts ago, but in this park the Rays offense is not as good as they have scored just 3.92 rpg here, compared to 4.4 rpg on the road. Still Justin has allowed 1 ER or less in 5 of his last 7 outings and should have a better showing vs the Rays then he did two weeks ago. I look for 6 runs at the most here. 

3 UNIT PLAYS

Pittsburgh -122 over COLORADO: Gotta go with the huge pitching advantage that the Pirates have in this one. James McDonald comes in 9-3 with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. On the road he has a 4-2 mark with a 3.97 ERA, while in his 7 day starts he is 3-1 with a skinny 1.85 ERA and an 0.87 WHIP. Now to the other side, we have Jeremy Guthrie who has pitched much better on the road than at Coors this year. On the road Jeremy has gone 2-4 with a solid 3.67 ERA, but in the thin air at Coors he has really struggled, going just 1-5 with a 9.23 ERA. He has a 1.85 WHIP and has allowed 12 HR's in just 39 innings at home. Pittsburgh doesn't have a great offense, but they do score much better on the road than at home and in this setting vs this pitcher their offense should have a good showing. Im still not sold on Pittsburgh lasting in the playoff race the whole second half, unless they get another big bat, but the Rockies are one of the worst teams in the league and have one of the worst home pitchers on the mound today. Look for Pittsburgh to take this one behind another solid outing from McDonald.

NY Yanks/ Toronto Under 10.5: I really wanted this play higher, but line movement has me playing it safe. Boy I did some digging on this one as you will see.The Jays are missing their top offensive threat and it really has showed as they have scored just 4 total runs in their last t games and i feel it will be very hard for them to score in this one. That's because they will be facing Hiroki Kuroda, who has been awesome in day starts this year. in 3 Day starts this year Hiroki has not allowed an ER just yet. he has allowed just 12 hits, with no walks and has 20 K's in his 23 innings of day work this year. He should really clamp down on an offensively challenged Jays squad here. Offensively the Yanks as as solid as ever, but sometimes when they have a dominant pitching edge or when they are big favorites their offense does just enough to get the win. Here are some stats t support this. The Yanks have been home faves of 169 or higher 19 times this year and have scored more than 6 runs just 4 times in those game, including just once in their last 14 in that situation. The Yanks have averaged just 4.9 rpg in those 19 games and on 1 of the last 14 when they are home faves of 169 or higher have put up more than 9 runs. You would think this offense would kill weak pitch and that those games would go way over, but the numbers say other wise. The Under is 21-5-1 in the Yanks last 27 games as a home favorite of 151-200 and the Under is 13-1 in their last 14 this year as a home favorite of 169 or higher. The final stat is the fact that Yankee day games have averaged 9.1 rpg, with the Under going 18-9 in those games. Even if the yanks put 6 runs on the board like the first 2 games, I just don't see Toronto coming close to to the 5 runs that would be needed for me to lose this one. Lets hope the numbers don't lie here.

POWER ANGLE PLAY

Arizona +122 over CINCINNATI:  Google News Play.  Not usually a dog player, but I like this spot to take one here. The Reds lead their division, but the loss of Votto will start to hurt them. Last night the Reds won 4-0, but had just 5 hits and were aided by a ton of walk by Bauer, but that is some that won't happen here as Kenned has walked just 4 batters in his last 3 starts and he has walked just 14 batters in 63 innings on the road all year. Kennedy doe has a 4.00 ERA on the road, but with a respectable 1.24 WHIP. The Reds din't really show last night that they were able to string bunch of hits together and they will have to here, because Kennedy just doesn't give many free passes. Kennedy has faced the Reds twice in his career, (both last year) and he allowed just 2 ER's total in 13.1 innings of work. Mat Latos has been stellar for the Reds at home as he is 5-1 with a 3.20 ERA, But he only last 5 innings in his last home start (vs the Cards) and should struggle here vs a underrated D-Back offense. Mat has faced the D-Backs 4 times in his career, but just once outside of Petco and in that start he allowed 3 ER's on 4 hits and 4 walks in just 5.1 innings of work. Also if he does get pulled early bin this one, then he will be turning over the ball to a tired pen. The D-Backs pen has been solid with a 2.48 ERA in their last 10 games, so I say the edge should go to Arizona in the late innings. Look for Arizona to bounce back tonight. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2004 the Reds are just 3-16 when they are off a win in which they had 5 or fewer hits and scored in at least 2 innings, as long as this is not the series opener.   

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAYS

St Louis/ Milwaukee Under 9 

San Francisco +110 over ATLANTA  Google News Play



 

1 UNIT PLAYS

Philadelphia/ Dodgers Over 6.5 

Houston/ San Diego Over 6.5

2 POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (8-8  -2.09 UNITS)

Since 2005 the Astros are 2-13 as a non-div road dog when seeking immediate revenge for for a 5+ run loss in which they were outhit by 5 or more hits. Play On San Diego -132 over Houston.

Since 2007 the Yanks are 31-4 when off a win as a favorite of 130+ in which they scored in at least 2 seperate innings and this is not game 1 of the series. Play on New York Yankees -177 over Toronto.