Stephen Nover Free Tuesday Play

Mets plus $1.15 at Nationals

Some people thought I was crazy when I said the Phillies would finish below the Nationals in the NL East. But it's going to happen. The Phillies are in decline while the Nationals are an emerging power.

The key to the Nationals is their top three starting pitchers, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman. When one of those three isn't pitching, the Nationals aren't so scary. Their everyday lineup is missing key starters Ian Desmond, Jayson Werth and Wilson Ramos.

That's the situation today with Washington hosting the Mets.

The Mets have reached the must-win stage of the season in this crucial matchup - for them - against the NL East-leading Nationals. New York trails Washington by six games and needs to beat the Nationals, particularly in this game since Washington is going with its No. 5 starter, Ross Detwiler.

If the Mets fare poorly in this series, they could punt the season and start looking at younger players, including a lot of highly-regarded pitching prospects.
 
The Mets were idle on Monday, while the Nationals concluded a four-game series in South Florida against the Marlins. This extra rest could factor as the temperature could reach triple digits in Washington D.C.

Detwiler has allowed 19 baserunners in his last two starts spanning 11 2/3 innings. The Nationals are 2-3 in Detwiler's last five starts. This is the Mets' third look at Detwiler this season. Washington is likely to once again be missing middle infielder Ian Desmond.

Mets starter Jon Niese had a rough start against the suddenly-hot Cubs during his last start. Previous to that, however, Niese was 4-1 with a 1.74 ERA in his last six starts.

Niese is 2-0 with a 3.42 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings during four career starts versus the Nationals. The Nationals are much improved this season, but they have yet to face Niese this year.

I am 17-5 (77 percent) on my last 22 totals plays and have one going today along with a sides play. They can be seen here: http://pregame.com/pregamepros/pro-bettor/bettor.aspx?id=7746#capper

I'm looking to go 5-0 for the week. As always, no bad luck!