Tuesday MLB Thoughts - Free Play (+135 Winner)

Great insight & that takes a ton of time to put together. Keep it rollin' & keep cashin'.

Great Stuff Dave, that's a ton of help- Hope all is well! Eye ball leans were: Sale and Sox immediately but I want to watch movement overnight, (played Under 9)

I actually think Timmy has thrown real decent in 2 straight starts,(I would expect at least 7 inn. from both SP) and think with the Anemic offense that under 7 may be in play when the BP get ball at 7 1/2 it's an easy play.

Cinn./LaD- No Votto (Knee), No Rolen,(?) Now possibly No Cozart, who i imagine will sit after being drilled--first thoughts scream Under, heck, banged up Reds and Cueto/Capuano on mound in a night game at Chavez of all else with Reds BP WELL RESTED, however Valdez will Play and Dusty will try to capaitalize/take advantage?Manufacture Runs with speed/running game IMO so... 6 1/2 with a couple walks or hits & Dodger Bully may get you the over.  After that cluster screw of a thought process, (shit I get long and over analytical, my thinking scares me sometimes- Lol) Line move will help tomorrow BUT this game may be Best just left alone.

Anyway, appreciate the time, lot of work in this Post- Hope you have a great Week!!

Thanks, Dave. Good luck!

GL 2nite dave

Always appreciate your thoughts Dave. Keep up the great work.

Thanks Byran, Bruno, LJ, CB......and you too, Mr. Monopoly. I enjoy doing these and hope they are informative.

Great write-ups, Dave.

Dave Essler

Moving on to the next one(s) and trying to give out information.

Miami at Milwaukee: The enigma that is Marco Estrada. His impressive WHIP is masked at times by the fact that he simply throws strikes and doesn't walk many, hence he's given up a ton of bombs. The upside here is that the Marlins haven't seen much of him, but I'm not sure that's the team I want Estrada making mistakes against, either. Sanchez has bee super consistent all year, with most of his bad outings coming at home, but the Brewers individually have hammered him. If they'd open the roof this game could see a million runs, and it's still hard not to like the over here, even at 9 in an NL game, because neither bullpen is worth a whole lot, although the Fish pen has been better of late.

San Francisco at Washington: Hard not to like the Nationals here at this cheap price. One good outing against the Dodgers and 115 pitches hardly qualifies Lincecum as a freak, not when Ian Desmond is 7-9 off of him. However, he has had great success against these particular Nats, but there's no chance of taking the Giants against Zimmerman, who would be the #1 starter on well over half the teams in baseball. If Morse is in the lineup, we'll take the Nats, and may even if he's not. Washington, barring a collapse this week, will enter the AS break in first place and they're seven games over .500 on the ROAD.  Since the Giants bullpen has been pretty solid lately, this could well stay under, but with the way Washington's been hitting that'd be a hard bet for me to make in the heat, but there could be shadows late with the odd start time, so probably whatever happens will happen early.

Houston at Pittsburgh: Burnett has been nothing short of unhittable at home this season, so that big number probably is justified. I just keep waiting for the other shoe to fall with him, so I just cannot lay that big number. Harrel HAS the ability and the Pirates haven't seen him, so I lean to the under here and might make a case for the Astros RL if I were to take a side. At -140 that's pretty reasonable for an NL lower scoring game. We'll see what happens.

Phillies at Mets: It seems as if the Mes have gone from being under valued to over valued in about a week, but the Phillies are one of the few teams that have put up many runs on Niese so we'd actually look for him to make some adjustments here. The downside is that he's thrown four straight games with 100+ pitches, and Philadelphia has obviously seen plenty of him. The upside is that the Phillies are 9-17 against left handed starters. Worley's been somewhat more hittable the second time around for many teams, but the Mets hit him the FIRST time. It's hard not to like the Mets and the under in this one. The only reservation at this point regarding the total is that neither bullpen has been all that stout lately.

Chicago at Atlanta: Rarely can I fade the Braves at home in the heat of the summer. But, even though Jurrjens has had a couple of decent outings, the thing I noticed right of the bat was how may flyball outs he had. Now, in Turner Field he may be able to get away with it, but a .325 opponents BA will get  my attention, even against the Cubs. With Volstad being recalled to make this start, that may not be a viable option either, which of course means there's a premium for taking the Braves which I cannot do. Atlanta saw plenty of him when he was with the Fish, so I'd have to lean to the square over in this one, and if it comes down to 8.5 probably will play it, unless something happens in the Monday game to change my mind.

Colorado at St. Louis: Joe Kelly looked pretty solid in his last start against Miami and has yet to really be hit all that hard. he keeps the ball down, inducing a ton of groundball outs, and of course Colorado hasn't seen him before, so clear edge on the hill for the Cardinals. Not sure if it's a -160 edge, however, as the Rockies CAN hit. And, Francis has actually been quite solid after those first two rough outings, and his last two starts were IN Colorado which can make anyone look bad. This has the makings of being a Rockies RL play and perhaps even the under. I know it's hot and perhaps blowing out in St. Louis, but needing ten runs to lose an NL game is a hard bet not to make more often than not.

San Diego at Arizona: Cashner pitched very well in his first start at Houston, and if I recall had a no-no going through about six innings. Granted it was the Astros who haven't been hitting, but he did manage to throw 101 pitches, which means he is bettable in the right situations. And if he can pitch in Minute Maid perhaps he can pitch in Chase (two small parks) and the D-backs have never really done much with him. Since Bauer has been dealing with groin issues off and on, and the Padres obviously haven't seen him either, the under may be a solid play here. If it goes to 9.5 for sure, as anytime you can get that number in a San Diego game you almost have to take it. If tonight's game doesn't dissuade me I may take San Diego.

Cincinnati at Los Angeles: I was hoping for this total to be 7 and I'd automatically take the under, but I see BetOnline has 6.5 already. Tough to fade Cueto and especially against the Dodgers, BUT, Los Doyers have had great individual success against him and the Reds are simply pressing right now. Don't look now but Capuano has a season-long WHIP of only 1.10, but the Reds have actually given HIM trouble, too. So, perhaps over is actually a reasonable play, even in Dodger Stadium at night. That's a tough bet to make, though, and I do lean to the team with the last at bat here.

Angels at Indians: Almost impossible for me to take a -135 road favorite against a hot hitting team with just about any pitcher on the mound. In spite of Haren's past successes, to me it's all about "what have you done lately" in this business and I lean to the Indians. Haren just hasn't been able to get anyone out, and I am never comfortable betting on the Angels bullpen. Nobody's REALLY torched McAllister yet, but he does have issues keeping the ball down. Warm with a slight breeze helping means that if somehow it would come off the 9.5 and go to 9 I'd have to take the over in this one, and it's Cleveland or nothing.

Minnesota at Detroit: Most of you know I love to fade Max whenever possible, and even with Blackburn pitching I might well do that. There is no way Scherzer is a -200 pitcher against a team that knows him that well. Since Blackburn doesn't get too many people out either, the only play I could make here is the over, and I'd be a bit surprised if that didn't close at ten. Even with a breeze blowing in, I cannot see a low scoring game here. I could easily make a case for the Twins and/or the Twins RL at next to free.

Kansas City at Toronto: Two MORE pitchers I like to be on the opposite side of, meaning the total is probably inflated a bit. We never seem to know what we're going to get from either of these two, and since we usually fade the Royals against LHP my instinct would be to take the Jays, but I am just not comfortable laying -150 with Cecil, so I won't. I really go back to trying to make a case for the under here. That's a ton of runs to need with two offenses than can, at times, be pathetic, especially with runners in scoring position. So, almost by default, it'd be the under but there are probably better games.

Yankees at Rays: We've been fading Shields at home all year and it's been a money-making proposition, although at about even money this may be the time to ride him. He's just been so awful at the Trop this year, but over the course of time, aside from Cano owning him, he's fared well against the Yankees.  What I really like is that Nova pitched against Tampa Bay about a month ago and had a great outing, so I would almost instinctively look for the Rays to get the better of him this time around. The Monday night game and the subsequent use of either bullpen will ultimately factor into this one, but at this time I lean Rays and have a hard time thinking they'll score nine runs between them.

Texas at White Sox: Oswalt is pitching so well, and Sale is almost unhittable, that without looking I would lean to the under which will be inflated because the White Sox have been hitting and of course it's the Rangers. There's at this time what looks to be a right-to-left breeze which actually might knock down more balls than it helps, so there is your free play. Laying -135 to the Rangers who COULD unload might not be an option, and at only +125 that's probably not enough for me to fade Chris Sale, so the under is the play here, IMO.

Boston at Oakland:  Lester is hittable almost against anyone this year, really. Even the fact that we like to fade the A's against LHP where they are only 11-16 is not enough for me to play on Boston. Colon has had flashes of brilliance and then been hit hard, but he's almost always pitched well against Boston, and in this huge park can probably get away with a few mistakes. Even with the wind to center helping, this may not get to 7 runs, but there's no chance I could take that under here because of what COULD happen to either starter. I love the A's bullpen, and with both Aviles and Middlebrooks probably at less than 100% this is the A's or nothing. Way too much value in the home dog, barring something unforeseen between now and then.

Baltimore at Seattle: Everyone's going to want to back Felix so my first thought would be to try to find a way not to. There's two ways. In his last outing he threw 128 pitches. Numero dos is he is going against a LHP and that's something we'll usually fade with Seattle, especially one they've never seen. I actually think that because Chen DOES make mistakes and the fact that the Orioles have actually hit Hernandez better than most any team he's faced in the AL, this may well go over 6.5 runs. We'll see what happens but we love Tuesday's card a lot.

You Went Big Time Today Dave- Nice Day- Liked SD TY and the analysis of some of these games was Dead On~ Nice Job