MLB Monday and whatever - Free Play

Not giving you the dissertation on where we are. That is, like the truth, self-evident.Yes, that was indeed Thomas Jefferson's quote, but many of you may have forgotten that by now. Here it is almost the All-Star break already, and we're not halfway to where we were last season, but personally my goals are day-to-day to make a profit. If I set a number that I want to be at and start poorly, it can be demoralizing (I am human, for the most part) and conversely if we start a year/season really well, it can easily lull someone into a false sense of security. The free play will be forthcoming once we've gone over this a few more times, plugged in all the variables, confirmed some things (lineups, line moves, weather, etc) and that's just what we do, no matter the day of the week or the sport. 

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia: Shame on me for not playing the Pirates RL against Verlander. I was within a second of it several times. Anyhow, given the Phillies two games and the Pirates little run, it's not likely I could take the Phillies here. Bedards' been hit and miss, and what struck me is how many flyball outs he gives up, so that would make me look at the over. But, he's typically pitched well against Philadelphia, but not so much away from PNC. So, the total. Not out yet but the wind might well be blowing in pretty steady, which might make any total not really playable, and bring me right back to the beginning and fading Blanton. Since Blanton has pretty much owned McCutcheon, I'd go right back to the under. But, perhaps can't do that either because the Phillies might not have much of a bullpen, depending on the second game. Still, it's Pirates and under for the moment!

Milwaukee at Cincinnati: Well, without looking everyone will want to take the over because it's the Reds at home against the Brewers (without Prince Fielder, BTW). But, there might be a stiff crosswind (which can be worse than blowing IN) and it's not going to be that humid. So, I lean to the under, actually, especially at the key number of "9" in an NL game. Oddly enough Latos has been much better at home (it's a small park, FWIW) and if you take Weeks out of the equation he's fared well against the Brewers. You almost always pay a premium for the Reds at home, but you also usually pay for the now overvalued Gallardo as well, which seems to negate things here as I thought perhaps the Reds would be more than -130. Gallardo beat the Reds back in May, but with the brutal series Milwaukee just finished with the White Sox and the Reds being a bit sullen after losing two of three to the Twins, I lean to the Reds (slightly) and the under. 

St. Louis at Miami: Ah, the Cardinals visit South Florida for the first time since the opening one-game series against the Fish, when Lohse beat Marlins 4-1. We had the polygonic Marlins that day and I do not forget much. Nope, I don't. Had to think that with the Marlins hitting, the Cardinal hitting, and no pen left for St. Louis, that this would clearly be an "over" bet, Scotti. And both SP's have been hit reasonably hard. However, both are typically groundball pitchers, it's indoors, and they COULD both be on enough to keep this under, so we'll see about that first lean, because nine is a big number in the NL. Given the travel versus the rest and the length of the Cardinals' games this weekend, I do lean, reluctantly, to the Fish.

Mets at Cubs: Well, then. Santana throws a no hitter (sort of) and then gets hit pretty hard by the Yankees and the Rays, a couple of AL teams with a DH, then shuts out the Orioles, who hadn't seen him and haven't been hitting. I almost think, given that the Mets play late on Sunday, that there is some merit in taking the home dog here. Both teams have been fade material against left handed starters, the Cubs even more so, and in this game I certainly do not see very many runs being scored. Interestingly enough the only team that's really gotten to Travis Wood is the Padres, of all teams. With the wind supposed to be blowing in from left, I like the under here a fair bit, and we'll see what that total is, because the Cubs RL is probably a play if it's reasonable enough. The RL is related to the total in that if it's expected to be a low scoring game, then you pay much more for that +1.5 than you would if it were a projected higher scoring game. 

OK, my wife wants me to peel some shrimp. It's the least I can do since she let's me do THIS 23/7 and I actually went golfing today for the first time in months. We'll fill in the blanks later tonight or tomorrow. 

Monday it is! Your free play tonight is on the Kansas City Royals +100. It is also a 2* premium play for myself and our clients. The shrimp were good, made better by the fact that someone else did the cooking.