That Boston game pissed me off yesterday. A missed call by the Ump led to Boston getting 3 runs that they would not have gotten. Then I thought I might still win the Under on that game the Tigers hit a r run homer with two outs in the 9th to put the game Over the total. Uggh. A horrible was to lose a game. Still ended up going 3-2 in my top plays for the day and 5-2-1 overall. Could have been better though.
There was my rant of the day. LOL On to today's action.
4 UNIT PLAY
Texas/ Seattle Under 10: This has been a low scoring series of late and not just the games played in Seattle, but also the games played here. These teams have played 8 times this year, with the last 7 games putting up no more than 8 runs in a game. The last 4 games played here have put up just 5.5 rpg. Scott Feldman has pitched just 2 games at home this year and he has a solid 1.80 ERA with just 7 rpg being scored in the 2 games. Scott has a 2.97 ERA in his last 5 home starts vs Seattle, with just 1 of those games putting more than 10 runs on the board. Jason Vargas has pitched well this year with a 3.39 ERA, including a 3.34 ERA in his last 6 starts, with those last 6 starts putting up just 6.7 rpg Jason does have a 4.60 ERA in his last 10 starts, vs the Rangers, but only one of those last 10 starts have seen more than 9 runs scored in a game. Texas should have Hamilton back for this one and their offense is better with him in the line up, but he is just 3 for 20 with 0 HR's in his career vs Vargas. Texas had a good home series vs the Blue Jays, but they have averaged just 3 rpg in their last 4 home games with Seattle and their home games overall this year have averaged just 9.3 rpg, after putting up 12+ rpg last year. Seattle averages just 3.9 rpg and the Ranger pen is rock solid, so don't expect a lot of late runs from them if Feldman gets into trouble. Texas home games have gone 13-9 UNDer this year and I see that trend continuing here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
St Louis/ Atlanta Over 8.5: Pitching was supposed to carry this Braves team this year, but that has not been the case, especially late as they have allowed 5.8 rpg during their current 8 game losing streak, including allowing 7.5 rpg during their current home stand. Before St Louis put 8 runs on them last night they allowed offensively challenged Washington to put 22 runs on them in their 3 game series. This is a struggling staff and for them it's not good going up against a St Louis offense that comes in hitting .314 and scoring 5.6 rpg in their last 5 games. With all the Injuries this team has it just shows how deep offensively they are to still be hitting and scoring that well. Tonight they take a crack at Randall Delgado, who has a 4.53 ERA on the year and has allowed 4 ER in each of his last 2 starts. Randall has averaged just 6 inning per start at home this year and that means he should be turning the ball over pretty early to an Atlanta pen that has a 5.05 ERA at home. Jake Westbrook had a vey nice start to the year, but has struggled of late, with a 7.20 ERA in his last 3 starts. He does have a 1.33 ERA in 4 road starts, but hasn't gone more than 7 innings in his road starts and behind him is a St Louis Pen that has an ERA of 4.94 on the road. The Braves have struggled to score of late, but they still average 5 rpg at home and they should be good for at least 4 runs here, with the Cards put up no less than 5 of their own. This game should reach DD.
Pittsburgh/ Cincinnati Under 8: I have tried a few times this year to play an OVER in a Pitt home game and have lost every time, LOL. I hope that now that im going with an UNDER here the reverse doesn't happen. That would suck. When Pitt has faced a righty at home the UNDER has gone 12-2-1 in those games. Overall Pittsburgh home games have gone 18-5-1 UNDER with an average of just 5.5 rpg being scored (Lowest in the league). Pittsburgh has hit just .213 and has scored just 2.8 rpg at home this year and it won't get much easier for them tonight as they face Homer Bailey. Current Pirate members have hit just .247 with 1 HR in 89 AB's vs Homer, while he has a posted a skinny 1.64 ERA in his last 5 starts vs Pittsburgh. On the other side we have a Cincinnati team that has averaged just 3.5 rpg on the road this Year. Current Reds members have hit .269 with 4 HR's in 145 AB's off off Charlie Morton, but he still has a very nice 1.80 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them. Homer has a 2.84 ERA in his last 3 starts overall, while Charlie has a 2.90 ERA at home, with just 5.4 rpg being scored in his home starts. THis one will struggle to hit 6 runs.
TORONTO -126 over Baltimore: The Orioles have been road warriors this year, going 15-7 away from home, but let's look to back to the beginning of the year as this team was pick for last in the division by many, and I feel they will start playing that way. The Orioles have now lost 3 in a row and 6 of their last 8 and playing in Toronto, vs Romero won't make it easier for them tonight. Ricky Romero comes in a 5-1 on the year, with a 3.86 ERA, while at home he is 4-0 with a 3.09 ERA. Last year Ricky faced the Orioles twice here and allowed just 1 ER in 16.1 innings of work, while winning both starts. Jake Arrieta faced the Jays twice here last as well and was 1-1 in the 2 starts, but with a 5.25 ERA in the two starts. This year Jake has struggled, going 1-5 with a 5.98 ERA in his last 7 starts. He has done well on the road with a 1-1 mark and a 2.77 ERA, but the Ja6ys offense has been hot of late and should get to him tonight. The Orioles are just not playing well enough right now to think they can take the Jays tonight.
Philadelphia -114 over NY METS: Let's go with the hot Phils here. Philadelphia comes in having won 5 of their last 6 games and the offense is really starting to heat up as they have hit .277 and have scored 5.8 rpg in their last 5 games. Joe Blanton stared off well this year but has struggled in his last 2 starts. Joe does have a 5.00 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Mets, but with a 1-0 record and the Phils have gone 3-2 in those starts. Jeremy Hefner does have 1 career start and it was this year vs the Padres. in that game he allowed 6 ER in just 3.2 innings of work, right here at Citi Field. The Mets have been playing much better this year so far, but the Phills look like they have turned the corner and are ready to get back in to the race. Philly is the better team here and has the better starter on the mound and should take this one in a high scoring game.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Philadelphia/ NY Mets Over 9
Chicago/ San Diego Over 10
Arizona +112 over SAN FRANCISCO (Added)
1 UNIT PLAY
MIAMI -135 over Washington
NY Yanks/ Angels Over 7.5
TRENDS OF NOTE
Pittsburgh has gone 12-2-2 UNDER at home vs righties this year.
Miami is 11-4-1 OVER at home vs righties this year
The UNDER is 24-8-1 when Oakland has faced a righty this year.
Tampa Bay is 13-5 at home vs righties this year. Arizona is 5-13 vs a winning team this year.
Cleveland is 14-6 with an OU line of 8 to 8.5 this year.
Minnesota is 4-11 off a win this year.
The Angels are 13-2 UNDER vs lefties this year.
Texas is 6-2 UNDER vs lefties at home
San Fran is 4-1-1 UNDER at home vs lefties this year and 9-4-1 UNDER vs them overall.
The Cubs are just 1-8 vs lefties on the year (1-4 at home)
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just let it go man. you won PHI/STL over with 2 run homer in the 9th 4 days ago. call it even and focus.
touche Broke. Still was a bad way to lose. Thanks and BOL to you today.
Thanks LJ and BOL to you as well.
Good luck my friend
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Thanks Russ. BOL to you as always.
Jeff beings i'm right here in georgia and a Braves fan for 35 years i love the over in thier game.With Chipper and Freddie out and Mccann just now coming back the pitching staff knows they aren't going to score as many runs as normal and all of the starters are taking the mound and trying to pitch that perfect game and putting to much pressure on themselves and they are working the hell out of the bullpen.
Good points and thanks Russ. I do feel like they are trying too hard now and the one team you don't want to try to hard vs in the NL is St Louis. For some a RL play on the Cards may be in order here as well.
BOL Jeff. Love the Mets and Cards overs
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good luck jeff
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