Well, it is Memorial Day.. or Labor Day as Ron Artest calls it. (not joking http://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/metta-world-peace-labor-day/ ) and we are starting to move out of the sss (small sample size) range. I have created this thread to bring you my baseball thoughts and picks. This, however, is not as selfless an act as it may appear on the surface. I believe that posting my picks in a public forum along with my reasoning will create an extra level of accountability and therefore cause me to make sure I really like a play and have thought it through before I bet it. My hope is this will improve my winning percentage and make me a better capper. I will use a 1-3 unit betting system with the majority of plays being 2 units. Anything you see in italics is from ScrubV. He is a hater but sometimes he makes good points and forces me to challenge myself.
Tue, May 29th
Padres(Stults) +144 at Cubs(Samardzija) -154
I know a lot of baseball bettors frown upon the idea of taking anything other than a dog or short fav (because they don't like losing money long term) but I really like the Cubs here. The Padres can't hit and Samardzija has been great so far this year. His peripheral numbers suggest what he has done up to this point is not an accident. It's hard to trust Stults. He has over performed to this point and is due for a bad outing. Plus he got hit with a line drive his last time out and there was some question as to whether he would make his next start. He threw off a mound and says he feels ok but I wouldn't feel comfortable backing him here. Value is on the Cubs in my opinion. I would say my model agrees except for the fact that I do not have a model. They are really hard to build. I am working on one but as Alan Boston says...'the brain is a computer' so for now that is what I will use. (Really? Your first pick and you are taking the Cubs as a sizeable fav? I mean really??)
**The Pick: Cubs -154 (2 units)**
on it good luck bro
ScrubV...I know that guy!
Good stuff here Dub.
What did we learn today? We learned backing a pitcher on his own bobble head day can be very profitable. Jeff Samardzija pitches an excellent game AND drives in the go ahead run as the Cubs come through for us. Big thanks to mobig wins and dennistyler for their support. (You are thanking your 'supporters'? Who do you think you are? And what is wrong with you??) Hope everyone out there saved the money they made on that Cubs ticket because I have uncovered some value for Wednesday's games.
Arizona(Kennedy) +112 at San Francisco(Lincecum) -122
Why would anyone back Tim Lincecum? He used to be good but now he is bad. This is how the public currently views Tim Lincecum. The public has noticed he isn't the same pitcher he used to be and sharp squares see him as the ultimate sucker bet. But let's dig deeper. Lincecum's era is a terrible 6.41 but his peripheral numbers suggest he is pitching at a higher level than his era indicates as his xFIP is 3.74. His BABIP is .344 which suggests he has been unlucky so far this season. That number should come down, especially when you take into account his k/9 which is 9.79 and is higher than it was last year. He is walking more batters than last year but I read he has been dealing with a blister which may be the reason. Ian Kennedy's 4.14 xFIP is hardly impressive. All in all we are getting the better team with the better pitcher at a more than a fair price in my opinion.
**The Pick: San Francisco -122 (2 units)**
Baltimore(Hammel) +127 at Toronto(Morrow) -137
Is Baltimore overrated? Yes. Does that mean there can never be value betting them? No. I like Baltimore here at plus money. Hammel is a solid pitcher and Morrow got absolutely shelled his last time out against Texas. He didn't make it out of the first inning. I have no problem going against him until he proves to us there is nothing wrong with him. (You are just going by what you saw last. No one is as good or as bad as their last start, that's handicapping 101. If anything, there is value on Morrow in this spot. You're an idiot.) Baltimore's bullpen will probably regress but they are still an asset. Combine that with their lineup and Hammel on the mound and they are worth a shot here at $1.27.
**The Pick: Baltimore +127 (2 units)**
New York Yankees(Nova) +109 at the Los Angeles Angels of Cupertino(Santana) -119
Ivan Nova is better than his 5.46 era. Ervin Santana is probably worse than his 4.45 era. Nova is striking out over 9 batters per 9 innings while walking less than 3 and has a .369 BABIP and .362 xFIP. Santana has a 4.18 xFIP and a sub par k to bb ratio plus a history of getting shelled by the Yankees, not to mention a .247 BABIP. The Yankees should be favored here in my opinion so getting them at plus money certainly offers value.
**The Pick: Yankees +109 (2 units)**
Looks like I was right about Tim Lincecum but wrong about Ian Kennedy. The market didn't like my pick as the game closed Giants -112. I got the Yankees game right as we beat the number and cashed a ticket but Brandon Morrow bounced back and it cost us a winning day. Sports betting is hard. The Thursday card is small but there is one side I like.
Houston(Norris) +109 at Colorado(Guthrie) -119
This one is simple. I feel this game is going to be a coin flip and anytime I can get +109 on a coin flip I'll take it.
**The Pick: Houston +109 (2 units)**
Norris gets shelled and we lose our(our?) one bet for the day. This thread has the potential to turn embarrassing but that is OK. It's easy to talk theories and concepts and markets....it's hard to pick winners long term.
Miami(Buehrle) -106 at Philadelphia(Kendrick) -104
No reason in my opinion that the Phillies should be dogs here. They have been scoring runs at a decent clip and there is value fading Buehrle and his 4.19 xFIP compared to his 3.26 era. Buehrle's large free agent contract as well as his name recognition create value on the Phillies in this spot.
**The Pick: Philadelphia -104 (2 units)**
Cincinnatti(Leake) -121 at Houston(Happ) +111
Houston cost us a ticket last night but I like them even more in this spot. I just can't find the reasoning to justify the Reds as favorites. I have no problem going against Mike Leake and believe it or not Houston has actually outscored the Reds so far this season.
**The Pick: Houston +111 (2 units)**
Seattle(Hernandez) +126 at Chicago White Sox(Peavy) -136
Can't pass up the opportunity to take Felix at plus money when Seattle is hitting well.
**The Pick: Seattle +126 (2 units)**
Boston(Doubront) -114 at Toronto(Drabek) +104
Boston is the better overall team and there is value on them here. Drabek's peripherals suggest a decline so fading him is a smart move.
**The Pick: Boston -114 (2 units)**
Cincinnatti(Latos) -125 at Houston (Rodriguez) +115
I still feel Houston is underrated even though they have burned us twice. I'm not a fan of Latos this year but his name recognition allows Houston to be available at plus money when I feel they should be a pick em or even slight favorites.
**The Pick: Houston +115 (2 units)**
Oakland(McCarthy) +112 at Kansas City(Hochevar) -122
McCarthy's era is 2.95 but his xFIP is 4.17 suggesting there is value in fading him. Plus his shoulder has been bothering him and the A's almost put him on the DL.
**The Pick: Kansas City -122 (2 units)**
Bad news...Houston pitching killed us once again. We got the Boston game right and beat the number with K.C. but they couldn't cash for us. Here is some good news though....I have been working on a model and ran it through today's nl card. It likes the Cubs and Phillies so those will be the two plays for today. It feels like such a cop-out justifying my picks by saying 'the model likes them' but I do feel the model I constructed, while relatively simple, will have the ability to spot value while eliminating biases.
Chicago Cubs(Wood) +136 at S.F. Giants(Zito) -146
**The Pick: Cubs+136 (2 units)**
Miami(Zambrano) -104 at Philadelphia (Blanton) -106
**The Pick: Phillies -106 (2 units)**
Ran the numbers for the AL and I'm adding 2 more picks for Sun, 6-3.
Baltimore(Arietta) +128 at Tampa Bay(Moore) -138
**The Pick: Baltimore +128 (2 units)**
Texas(Harrison) +105 at L.A. Angels(Haren) -115
**The Pick: Texas +105 (2 units)**
Thanks DubV. can you post your most recent picks on the top? i am too lazy to scroll down lol