MLB Friday Night...Thank You Hunter!!!

Off a 3-3 night overall, but I did go 2-1 in my top plays and hit both of my Top Play totals in EASY fashion. 12-7 overall last 3 days and 7-3 in my Top Plays over that stretch. Let's keep it going tonight.

TOP PLAYS

4 UNIT PLAY

St Louis/ Philadelphia Over 7.5: (Added) Last night played it safe with this play and had it as a lesser play, but I won't do that here. Cardinal home games have been very high scoring as they have gone 16-5 OVER, with an average of 10.7 rpg being scored. Both offenses have some injuries, yet last night the teams combined for 33 hits and 19 runs. Granted there was weaker pitching last night than today, but it wasn't all the starter's fault last night as the pens combined to allow 6 runs and 15 hits.  Cliff Lee goes for Philly tonight and he has pitched well with a 2.66 ERA, but the only good offense he has faced this year was in his last starts vs the BoSox and he allowed 5 ER on 9 hits in that start. Tonight he will face another strong offense as the Cards have averaged 6.2 rpg and have hit .295 at home this year. They also hit .295 and have scored 6.05 rp/9 off of lefties at home with 4 of their 5 home games vs lefties going over the total. The Phils haven't scored a whole lot this year, but they are 5th in the league in hitting, at .267 and hat should continue tonight vs Kyle Loshe, who has struggled of late. Kyle comes in with a 4.77 ERA in his last 5 starts, with all 5 start putting up at least 9 runs. He also has a 5.68 ERA in his last 2 starts at home, with both of those starts hitting at least 10 runs, plus we note that he has a 5.45 ERA in his last 6 starts vs the Phils. St Louis has one of the top hitters parks in the league right now and both of these teams have good enough offenses to put DD on the board again. Look for about 12 runs in this one.  

3 UNIT PLAYS

Chicago/ Pittsburgh Over 6.5: Yes I know how low scoring Pittsburgh home games (5.38 rpg) have been this year, but will go with the Over here. AJ Burnett has pitched well for the Pirates this year, as he has allowed more than 2 runs just once so far, but that can't continue forever. He will be taking on a Chicago team that is in desperate nee of a win, plus the Cubs do score 3.8 rpg on the road. AJ has 5 starts vs the Cubs in his career and while he is 4-0 in those starts, he does have a 4.06 ERA in those starts, which would indicate some high scoring games and that's true as 4 of his 5 career starts vs the cubs have put up 7 or more runs. The Pirates don't score a whole lot, especially at home where they have averaged just 2.5 rpg, but they should be able to put up some runs tonight vs Dempster. Ryan Demptster has a nice ERA on the year, at 2.28, but he does come in struggling as he has allowed 4 ER in each of his last 2 starts. Now Ryan has also struggled with Pitt of late as he has a 7.00 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them, including posting a 5.25 ERA in 4 starts vs them last year. 3 is the key number and i feel we can get that from both teams. Pittsburgh pitching has allowed 3 runs or more in each of their last 9 games, while Cubs pitching has given up 3 runs or more in 11 of their last 13 games. Both teams should get vat least 3 runs as this one hits 7 runs with ease.

Texas/ Toronto Under 9: (Added) Surprisingly this year Texas home games have gone 12-5-1 UNDER this year, with an average of just 8.4 rpg being scored. Texas does lead the league in scoring at 5.38 rpg, but they only averaged 4.8 rpg at home this year, after putting up 6.1 rpg at home last year. Tonight they should struggle in the hitting department once again as they take on Brandon Morrow, who comes in with a sparkling 0.63 ERA in his 4 road starts this year, with an average of 7 rpg being scored in those starts. Brandon has also allowed just 2 ER in each of his last 3 starts vs the Rangers. Derek Holland has struggled at home with a 5.60 ERA in 4 starts, but his 4 home starts have averaged just 8.3 rpg. He should have a good showing tonight vs a Toronto team that has hit lefties on the road at just a .201 clip. Should Derek get in trouble he does have a solid pen behind him that has a 2.40 ERA at home, plus in his 4 home starts that pen has allowed just 2 runs total after he has left the game. Toronto also has a good pen as they come in with a 2.90 ERA on the road. Wind isn't always a factor for me, but I will look at it tonight as we get about a 17 MPH wind blowing in from right. Texas has struggled to score of late and Toronto averages just 4.2 rpg on the road. Look for this one to struggle to hit 7 runs.

Washington/ Atlanta Over 7: (Added)  Risking taking an OVER in an Atlanta game with all the offensive struggles they've had of late, but I still feel these teams can put 7+ runs on the board tonight. Ross Detwiler had a strong start to the year, but he has struggled of late with a 7.31 ERA in his last 3 starts.  now tow of the three starts were vs Pittsburgh and San Diego (weak hitting teams) and he allowed 3 and 5 runs to those teams respectively. Atlanta struggled to score on their road trip, but they are back home where they have averaged 5.47 rpg. Digging a little deeper we see that the Braves have hit .268 and have scored a whopping 7.34 rp/9 at home vs lefties on the year. Washington struggles to score everywhere, but they still average 4.1 rp/9 on the road vs righties, compared to just 1.6 rp/9 on the road vs lefties. Tim Hudson does have a 3.00 ERA in 2 home starts this year, but behind him is a pen that has an ERA of 5.05 at home on the year. I fully expect at least 4 runs from the Nats in this one, while the Braves offense should open up a bit now that they are home and put at least 4 runs on the board themselves. Brave home games have averaged 10.1 rpg and that's just about where I expect this one to land. 

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAYS

Miami/ San Francisco Over 7

LA DODGERS -1.5 (+115) over Houston (Added)

1 UNIT PLAY

Detroit -136 over MINNESOTA