MLB Monday Thoughts - TAKING DOWN PACKAGE

I learned my lesson for the one-millionth time about betting on home teams in their first game back last week. It's got to be a rare occasion. Here's the NL side of the street for your entertainment purposes. I do hope some of you read my tweet about the Celtics ML. I won't (but I should) have -250 premium plays, although I do play them.

NY Mets at Phillies: Well, we wouldn't lay -200 anyways, so we don't have to worry about THAT home team coming back from a late game in Washington. The only good thing about Halladay's last outing in Atlanta is that he "only" threw 93 pitches. He is, after all, 7-0 over the last few years against the Mets, so that might make it tough to look at the Mets RL, either. A little cloudy and a slight breeze out to left. And of course Niese's pitch count was down due to a shellacking as well. But, the Mets ARE actually over .500 and 10-5 against RHS, but this isn't just any RHS. Tejada doubtful for the Mets, and both bullpens have been pitiful over the last week.

Miami at Houston: Wandy is STILL under rated and especially at home, and many of the Astros simply own Zambrano. Not sure I could fade the Astros here, although when Miami STARTS hitting they don't stop and this IS a small park that may well have the roof open. Without doing too much more thinking, and knowing that Zambrano is still walking too many people, I'd have to lean to the Astros here. I'll attribute Sunday's loss to Wainright being razor sharp. That's not a big total for two teams that CAN hit in this park, but it's already gone from 7 to 7.5. Gotta be quick about these things.

Atlanta at Chicago: Kind of tough to fade the Braves after the hitting barrage in Colorado. But, was it the Rockies pitching and/or Coors Field, because they sure weren't hitting last week. Samardzija two very good outings back to back and very low pitch count. The Cubs did have to use Camp for an inning and Russell for two against the Dodgers, so they may be a bit thin back there. Obviously we trust the Braves pen more than most teams, but it's tough not to look at home dogs. Hanson has been hittable at times this season, he hasn't beaten the Cubs, and was torched in his only start at Wrigley. Which Hanson do we get Monday? Dunno, but I think I like the Cubs here in what could be a chilly and damp night. That would also point to the under.

Cincinnati at Milwaukee: Welp, here's the potential team coming home to fade, especially from San Francisco and a three city road trip. Gomez and Gonzalez are both on the DL, so we've got an auto-lean to the Reds. Gallardo hasn't given up a home run since the first game against the Cardinals (in what was their second game) when he allowed FOUR. His pitch count was up last game and the Reds hit him quite well. I never seem to wrap my head around Arroyo, but might have to here. The only drawback is that Milwaukee has seen SO much of him their won't be any surprises, and there are some cracks up and down the lineup. Gallardo a great hitting pitcher so perhaps take a look at the over here before it hits 8.5.

St. Louis at Arizona: Interesting how much respect they give Lynn to make the Cardinals road favorites against Saunders. I can't say I disagree, but it does surprise me a bit. I'd at least TRY to take the home team, and the first thing I see is that Lynn threw 100+ pitches the last two outings and he's clearly never done that before, coming from the bullpen last season. Backing Saunders always scares the shit out of me as you just never know which "Joe" shows up. D-backs in that first game back thing and all the way from New York, so I suppose it really would be St. Louis or nothing. I know it's a small ballpark, but it would take nine runs to lose an under bet, and the Cardinals pen is rested after Wainright's game Sunday. 

Colorado at San Diego: OK, it's obvious which team has the better offense here, but does that tell the whole story. Probably not. The Padres lost to the Fish on just terrible execution including walking in a run(s) while the Rockies just get humiliated at home be the Braves, so both team need a new start. I see the obligatory "6.5" for a total, which is about as high as it might get all year in Petco. Pomeranz pitched very well last game out, but did throw 113 pitches. Having said that I'd clearly have to lean to the Padres here, but that may just be another suicidal bet because in a low scoring game it may only take one walk, one error, and one hanging curve ball to get three runs which is probably enough, and either team is capable of giving that one away.

San Francisco at LA Dodgers: OK, now it's the Dodgers in a first game back situation, and fairly late travel from Chicago. So, I'd try to back the Giants first, especially with Lilly pitching. And in such a big park and at night, it may not take many runs to with this one, assuming the NEW Barry Zito shows up again. And the Giants will need a Herculean effort from Zito after an 11 inning game against the Brewers in which they used a large chunk of arms. No Sandoval does change the offensive outlook for the Giants, however. I suppose I could make a mild case for a Buster Posey home run, but that's the only one Lilly has to pitch around, IMO. I do wonder whether his being ejected for arguing balls and strikes has any effect on THIS umpire. Probably better games, IMO, but I'd almost have to take the under without even looking at what it is.