Saturday MLB - Free Play

These are always tougher to do when you lose, especially like we did last night with two home teams blowing leads. I should know better than to take teams in their first game back, too. Oh well, next.

Dodgers-Cubs: I suspect people will line up to take the Dodgers, figuring they can't lose two straight to the Cubs, especially since the Cubs are 1-3 versus a left handed starter. Capuano doesn't impress me enough to lay -145 on the road, however. I tend to think that in spite of the wind blowing in a bit that they may well get to eight, but the line says not so fast. But, since both pens have been bad, I still think they will.

Philadelphia at Washington: Well, Gio is cheap and getting cheaper, which would tell me to perhaps lay off the Nationals. Worley appears to be back in his old form, too, which tells me that perhaps this games stays under. There's a chance of some showers in Washington during the game, which would preclude me from taking the over here. Then again, a few extra frames last night taxed the pens, so if one of these guys falters, that may well be the right play (over). 

Brewers at Giants: Quite pissed at myself for not taking Milwaukee last night because of my aversion to road teams. Anyhow, there's no chance of me laying -150 on the Giants who cannot hit against a LHP. ANY LHP, really.  Stiff breeze blowing out to right, which might well favor the LHH of the Brewers, IMO.  Early money says that they don't hit seven runs, but that could be being set up, who knows. The only bet I could make in this one is the Brewers RL, but at -170 that's a bit rich for my blood.

Arizona at NY Mets: That's actually a reasonable price for the Mets given the pitching matchup, but I do have a little rule about betting on the Mets against a left handed starter. Probably the real value here is on the D-backs, because they Mets haven't seen Corbin. I'm just not sure I can trust the Arizona bullpen lately. So, I would lean to the under in this one.

St. Louis at Houston: Garcia is (has been) an entirely different pitcher on the road and there is just no chance of fading the Astros as a home dog here, In fact, I played the Astros RL as well as the over last night. Norris is one of those bulldogs that can just keep a team in the game. And because it's a total of eight, I took the RL and the over figuring that the Astros needed to get to three runs to not lose both plays.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: They're clearly giving MacDonald a lot of respect here and/or disrespecting Leake quite a bit. In Leake's games I almost always look to play the over just because he is perhaps the best hitting pitcher in baseball, hence no auto-out or walking the #8 hitter to get to him. The total is coming down to 7.5 from 8, so perhaps it's worth a look.  I can't bring myself to play the Pirates because MacDonald threw a ton of pitches in his last two starts. So, perhaps I will look at that over.

Atlanta at Colorado: I want nothing to do with this game after last night. We were on Colorado (FOL) and I just cannot handicap Moyer, or perhaps I can and just don't want to. In spite of last night's bullshit (unless of course you had the Braves) I have to think that in Coors Field this game has a reasonable shot a a bunch of runs, too. I could very well take the Braves simply because they may well build on last nights' momentum while the Rockies may be just totally ashamed of themselves. I sure would be.

Miami at San Diego: I actually want to take the Padres here if for no other reason than the fact that the Marlins look too easy. Buerhle has been one of those pitchers that's quite capable of implosion at any time, at least when I try to back him. Plus, there's some sharp money on the Padres.

Baltimore at Boston: There is zero chance of me taking the Red Sox at home. They're almost better off being away from the apathetic fans, actually. The fact that Boston is ONLY -115 (down from the opener) should tell you all you need to know. Baltimore or nothing, and I do not think they get to ten runs. If they do, it might be later rather than sooner because of the lack of a bullpen, but in a close game I want the Orioles closer over whoever Boston decides to trot out.

White Sox at Detroit: I usually like to fade Max especially at home where he's usually over valued, and had the White Sox hung on last night I would. However, the Tigers are one of the streakiest teams in baseball, both good and bad, so I almost think that them coming back late last night carries over into today. With the wind hurting rather than helping and it's not all that warm in Detroit, I'd have to think this game stays under.

Texas at Cleveland: I've got to think the Indians win this game, too. You know we love our home dogs and have made a ton of money fading Holland and I will personally do so again. D-Lowe can be horrible, but if his sinker is one he is exactly the type of pitcher that might well give Texas' bats some issues. 

Oakland at Tampa Bay: I have not been sold on Hellickson and I am a believer in what the A's have quietly done, which is make me some money. They've got the ability to score some runs for a change, so I really think they rebound here and will take a close look at the A's RL later.

NYY at Kansas City: Well then perhaps a but polygonic but I do like the over in this one. I cannot believe that with the wind and the humidity and the pitchers that this game doesn't hit ten runs. I am not a fan of the umpire tonight, but by the same token he's got to be better than Carapazzo was Friday night. The Royals can score these days, and perhaps more so against a RHP due to all the LHH they'll have in the lineup. And we'll see if Robertson is really ready to pitch back to back games.

Toronto at LA Angels: No chance I could back the Angels at that price even with Wilson pitching. And with the Angels not seein a ton of Drabek, I have to think the Jays chances of winning this late are decent. However, and as you know, both bullpens suck so I'd have to pass, or perhaps consider the Jays RL. 

Minnesota at Seattle: Well, the Twins have scored three runs in three games, all in one inning and all last night when I backed Seattle. Again, I should have know with the cross country flight not to do that. Can you really fade Felix in this one? I actually am thinking about it, but that games is a long time from now so we'll come back to that one.