Thursday's Stuff Wednesday - (Free Play) 6-0 Wednesday Premiums

Lots of day games and the night will surely be a basketball one! Long term subscribers have the Jays, Jays over, and the Astros. Onward, free play for Wednesday is the A's RL. And we (long term people and I) also had the Mariners' RL, the Oakland RL, and the Padres RL. We're not greedy and we're 15-5 with RL plays this season, on a 13-6 2* run and a 9-2 1* run. We have only had TWO 3* plays this MLB season. Winners are winners and expectations are realistic.

Phillies at Braves: Neither pitcher is worth betting on, however Delgado clearly has more potential, but 12 walks in 20 innings against only one reasonable offense (Arizona) isn't going to get it done for me. On the other hand, Blanton threw over 100 pitches last time out and the last time he did THAT he was crushed by the Padres, of all teams. He is, when he's right, primarily a ground ball pitcher that doesn't walk many, and Turner Field holds balls that many parks don't. But, there's a slight breeze blowing out and the humidity is beginning. I'd like to think bases solely on the starters that there are runs scored here, but it'd doubtful that McCann will play the day-after-a-night game and we'll have to see whether Chipper plays or not. And of course Heyward has an oblique issue and may or may not be good to go. The Braves pen seems to have settled in a bit, but that's including four games against the Pirates, so? The Phillies pen, on the other hand, has been terrible lately. Phillies have picked it up offensively in the last week scoring 5+ runs a game, while Atlanta has been going the other way, perhaps back to the beginning of the season when they had "issues". For that reason alone I am considering the Phillies. Delgado will be on a fairly short leash, I suspect.

Cubs at Reds: The first thing we always do in Reds home games is check the weather. That's a ballpark that won't hold many given the right weather pattern. As it turns out there's supposed to be a fairly stiff (10-12 MPH) breeze blowing from right to left, so it surely isn't hurting. The Reds are hitting .285 with ten jacks over the last half-dozen games. Dempster missed a start due to a quad injury, but in his three starts against three decent teams he's been a beast, and he does usually pitch well against most of this Reds lineup, so there's a shot at taking Chicago here, I suppose (sorry, Claude). The Reds have lost three of the four games' Bailey has started, with the win coming against these Cubs, and I do like to go the other way the next time around. As of right now I actually think the under is perhaps the best bet in this game. I don't see the Reds teeing off on Dempster and I certainly trust the Reds bullpen late. I can make a decent case for taking the Cubs RL if the price is right, too.

Pittsburgh at St. Louis:  I'd usually start this off by seeing if there's any merit to taking the underdog, so let's do that. The Pirates have lost four of Bedards' five starts, but he hasn't given up more than two earned runs in any of said starts. He did pitch against the Cardinals in Pittsburgh not long ago, and that was the game he did labor the most, throwing over 100 pitches and walking a season-high four batters. The Pirates pen has seen some regression, but some of that may be attributed to games against the Braves and the Rockies recently. I'd like to think the Pirates continue their sick run of unders, but this is another game where it's warm and the wind will be helping a fair bit. At first glance Westbrook looks easy as he hasn't given up a home run this season. His one loss this season was against these Pirates so there's clear motivation to win this game perhaps more than there otherwise might be. If he's on, and he has been, he is perhaps one of the best ground-ball pitchers there is in baseball. Just knowing that and the fact that St. Louis hits .287 against LHP would probably be enough for me NOT to take Pittsburgh, and depending on the number I do like the under here as well, even with the wind blowing out, because there's a decent chance they'll be starters resting. Depends a lot on how long the starters last in the Wednesday night game.

Miami at San Francisco: At little overcast but a pretty stiff wind blowing out to left so the ball may carry better than most AT & T games, with what's in my opinion two of the most unpredictable pitchers I have bet on/against. The Giants have been in a bit of  hitting slump the last week or so, and Vogelsong has been a feast or famine pitcher. He comes in only having thrown 87 pitches against the Reds, but he did give up four bombs and a ton of flyball outs. And of course we just never know what we're going to get from the Dolphins Marlins, but they have seen him and most have some success, albeit in limited at bats. Sanchez probably comes in a little over valued off a 14 strikeout games against the D'backs, especially given that he threw a season high 110 pitches, and he hasn't fared too well on the road in two starts. I'd like to think that Miami wins this game, given the recent hitting woes of the Giants, but I just can't trust the Marlins bullpen which is bad and getting worse. With both Huff and Affeldt out, I am not sure I can back the Giants here, and 6.5 looks way too easy, but I so think it's a 3-3 game somewhere along the lines.