Milwaukee-St. Louis: Lohse has been a bit of a freak so I am a little surprised at the initial scalp of the Brewers, which may well make the Cardinals a playable number. Yes, some Brewers have had success against him, but quite a few teams did in the past. this year he's holding opponents to a .170 BAA. Estrada pitched well in his first start since coming from the bullpen, but that was at home against a struggling Rockies team. Have to think that the Brewers' bullpen will factor in sooner rather than later, and it's been bad save for a few road games against the Cubs and the then lighter hitting Braves. Wind blowing straight out to center would clearly favor the over, and it's supposed to be about 70* at game time. But, that would mean you'd probably have to either have St. Louis get most of them, or Lohse to actually give up runs.
Houston at Cincinnati: The Astros are still on the "play on" list for me. I still find it hard to believe that the Reds are -200 in this game, even with Harrell versus Cueto. Cueto has two 111+ pitch games back to back on the road, and hasn't pitched into the eighth inning in a game yet. Having said that the Reds with Chapman and Marshall have one of the best closing pens in the league. So, much of this game might depend on what happens with the Reds pen on Friday. Is Lucas Harrell backable? Well, he has managed to for the most part keep the ball in the park, which includes three straight road starts. Wind blowing in and perhaps cooler than usual, with a day game after a night game so we really need to see the lineups here.
Cubs at Phillies: That's either a fair bit of disrespect for Blanton or a ton of respect for Wells at that number, given how well the Phillies have been playing and how poorly the the Cubs have played. Blanton's only good start was at home, but it was a great one. Was it the competition (Miami) or the park or a fluke? Castro and Soriano have hit him, and those ARE the two you'd want to if you backed the Cubs. Wells didn't pitch badly against the Reds, but the Phillies have done well against him. Bottom line is that I could see a case for the Cubs here, and with a chilly and damp day I think 8.5 is too many runs.
Pittsburgh at Atlanta: The Pirates have played to only three "overs" this season and yet I am drawn to this one. Delgado is basically still in the rotation because Hudson isn't ready and Bedard is simply not going to continue to throw two-earned-run games, especially against the team that's hitting better than anyone against LHP. Supposed to be fairly mild and slight breeze out to center, and although Turner Field isn't an "over" park, I may look into that one.
Mets at Rockies: I still think Gee might have some value here since the Rockies haven't seen him, and if and when we back the Mets it's usually against a RHP. However, he's just not the same pitcher away from Citi Field which even with the fences moved in is a hitters park, and he comes in after getting shelled by the Giants. That might give me an auto lean to the over, but with the Rockies not having seen him, slight breeze in, and a little chilly we might need the Mets to hit Guthrie to get there. Guthrie's been great on the road and crushed at Coors and against lesser teams as well, so I have to think the Mets have some real value here, again Friday's game not factored in.
More later. Need to try and get the Indians motivated. Weaver has nothing but the Indians have less.
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FWIW I played the Indians RL (again) this afternoon. Cleveland out-hit them something like 14-3 last night, and I am afraid that with the weather being "not conducive" to tons of runs (and the total reflective of that at well) that this is also a one run game. If Gomez can keep them in it through 5-6 innings, the Indians will win the game. The Angels haven't won one of Harens' starts yet, and he has been anything but un-hittable against relatively weak hitting teams. I could go on but most don't care why.
Dave Essler most don't care why.
most don't care why.
S-A-D B-U-T T-R-U-E
dennistyler Dave Essler most don't care why. S-A-D B-U-T T-R-U-E
Dave Essler Pittsburgh at Atlanta: The Pirates have played to only three "overs" this season and yet I am drawn to this one. Delgado is basically still in the rotation because Hudson isn't ready and Bedard is simply not going to continue to throw two-earned-run games, especially against the team that's hitting better than anyone against LHP. Supposed to be fairly mild and slight breeze out to center, and although Turner Field isn't an "over" park, I may look into that one.
For entertainment purposes only!
Dave Essler Milwaukee-St. Louis: Lohse has been a bit of a freak so I am a little surprised at the initial scalp of the Brewers, which may well make the Cardinals a playable number. Yes, some Brewers have had success against him, but quite a few teams did in the past. this year he's holding opponents to a .170 BAA. Estrada pitched well in his first start since coming from the bullpen, but that was at home against a struggling Rockies team. Have to think that the Brewers' bullpen will factor in sooner rather than later, and it's been bad save for a few road games against the Cubs and the then lighter hitting Braves. Wind blowing straight out to center would clearly favor the over, and it's supposed to be about 70* at game time. But, that would mean you'd probably have to either have St. Louis get most of them, or Lohse to actually give up runs. Houston at Cincinnati: The Astros are still on the "play on" list for me. I still find it hard to believe that the Reds are -200 in this game, even with Harrell versus Cueto. Cueto has two 111+ pitch games back to back on the road, and hasn't pitched into the eighth inning in a game yet. Having said that the Reds with Chapman and Marshall have one of the best closing pens in the league. So, much of this game might depend on what happens with the Reds pen on Friday. Is Lucas Harrell backable? Well, he has managed to for the most part keep the ball in the park, which includes three straight road starts. Wind blowing in and perhaps cooler than usual, with a day game after a night game so we really need to see the lineups here. Cubs at Phillies: That's either a fair bit of disrespect for Blanton or a ton of respect for Wells at that number, given how well the Phillies have been playing and how poorly the the Cubs have played. Blanton's only good start was at home, but it was a great one. Was it the competition (Miami) or the park or a fluke? Castro and Soriano have hit him, and those ARE the two you'd want to if you backed the Cubs. Wells didn't pitch badly against the Reds, but the Phillies have done well against him. Bottom line is that I could see a case for the Cubs here, and with a chilly and damp day I think 8.5 is too many runs. Pittsburgh at Atlanta: The Pirates have played to only three "overs" this season and yet I am drawn to this one. Delgado is basically still in the rotation because Hudson isn't ready and Bedard is simply not going to continue to throw two-earned-run games, especially against the team that's hitting better than anyone against LHP. Supposed to be fairly mild and slight breeze out to center, and although Turner Field isn't an "over" park, I may look into that one. Mets at Rockies: I still think Gee might have some value here since the Rockies haven't seen him, and if and when we back the Mets it's usually against a RHP. However, he's just not the same pitcher away from Citi Field which even with the fences moved in is a hitters park, and he comes in after getting shelled by the Giants. That might give me an auto lean to the over, but with the Rockies not having seen him, slight breeze in, and a little chilly we might need the Mets to hit Guthrie to get there. Guthrie's been great on the road and crushed at Coors and against lesser teams as well, so I have to think the Mets have some real value here, again Friday's game not factored in. More later. Need to try and get the Indians motivated. Weaver has nothing but the Indians have less.