We're on a decent little winning streak and waiting for the NBA playoffs where we come in hot. Enough about that and here's what I DO know about Friday:
Cubs at Phillies: OK, zero chance of laying -240 or whatever and I don't usually do bug RL favorites. I would occasionally take the -140 team at +160 or so on the RL, so basically betting on the Phillies isn't going to happen. Maholm hasn't thrown a lot of pitches, and when he's on he's a groundball pitcher. Only road outing this year was crushed at St. Louis. Pence pretty much owns him. Phillies in a first game back but did have a day off, which does make a big difference. Coming in hot (for a change) and the pen has been excellent at home. Halladay three straight 100 pitch games and Soriano hits him pretty well. Have to think the Cubs can get a couple somewhere along the lines, perhaps. So, it's all about the Phillies when it comes to the total. If you think Halladay gives up three somewhere, probably over the dropping number. If not, then under. Wind blowing in hard from left and a bit chilly, so we gotta think under here.
Arizona at Miami: Hmm. Arizona rested and Miami in a first game back after playing and losing in New York. That means, for me, that I will either find a way to back Arizona or find and angle in the total. Weather obviously not an issue. Saunders has has three good outing and against the Braves (who had been hot) he induced 15 ground ball outs, which is exactly what he'll need to do to win this game. However, the Fish have individually lit him up, which means before I even look at the total I know it's gotta be inflated for that reason alone. Zambrano's also had three good outings. We COULD say he's DUE, but I can't make those kind of bets. On paper he should do well and has done well against these D'backs. Huh. Looked at that total and it's the always tough NL 7.5. That does surprise me a bit, but clearly it's there for a reason. I would take some stones to play under, meaning it's probably a 3-1 game. Certainly at -130 they appear to be begging to take Miami, which is another reason I'd try to take the D-Backs. One of those games that's either a gift for the home team and I don't play it or over think it.
Houston at Cincinnati: There is no chance of fading the Astros yet. Wandy has a WHIP of 1.03 and and ERA of 1.42 in case you missed it. Yeah, I know the Reds traditionally do well against LHP and with all their LHH I've struggled to understand why, but the anemic loss to the Giants might have some lingering effect here. And of course Houston is rested and smokin'. And they're STILL available at a good price. Wandy simply owns Bruce and only Votto has had any real success. I've always felt Leake was a bit over valued off that start he had, but if he's not on he can give up a ton of flyball outs, and these Astros can hit the ball. Of course, so can Leake who's perhaps the best hitting pitcher there is, so I always look to play the over in his games. At 7.5 I might and at 8 I probably wouldn't especially with the wind blowing in and a 30% chance of rain. The Astros RL is a bit pricey (-160). On second thought, I do lean to the under a bit here since Leake has been able to keep Lee off the bases and the rest of the Astros haven't seen him. Still think it's got to be the Astros, under, or both.
Pittsburgh at Altanta: Obviously the instinctive thing to do is jump on the red hot Braves who are in a first game back but with a day off, but am I willing to lay -180? Of course not. Pittsburgh is 3-6 on the road, but those nine games were in SF, LA, and AZ. Hanson's only real bad start was at home against the Mets but part of that may be attributed to the fact that he'd just pitched against the Mets the week before. He has, however, had three straight 100+ pitch games, so if there was ever a time. OK, so AJ was a freak against the Cardinals and may do better in the NL without a DH, but, the few Braves that have seen him have torn him a new ass. Turner Field is not a hitters' park by any means, but at 7 with the wind blowing out slightly I might have to take my chances on that over. Not unlike the Philadelphia game, that's all going to probably depend on whether the Pirates can get ANY, and they have played to exactly three overs in fifteen games. Can't ask anyone to lay the ML with the Braves, although I'd take it into consideration personally. If it is indeed a lower scoring game the Pirates RL at -140 is an option, I suppose.
Two personal plays I am making:
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royal
We've got three more winners loaded. Good luck.
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Dave Essler We're on a decent little winning streak and waiting for the NBA playoffs where we come in hot. Enough about that and here's what I DO know about Friday: Cubs at Phillies: OK, zero chance of laying -240 or whatever and I don't usually do bug RL favorites. I would occasionally take the -140 team at +160 or so on the RL, so basically betting on the Phillies isn't going to happen. Maholm hasn't thrown a lot of pitches, and when he's on he's a groundball pitcher. Only road outing this year was crushed at St. Louis. Pence pretty much owns him. Phillies in a first game back but did have a day off, which does make a big difference. Coming in hot (for a change) and the pen has been excellent at home. Halladay three straight 100 pitch games and Soriano hits him pretty well. Have to think the Cubs can get a couple somewhere along the lines, perhaps. So, it's all about the Phillies when it comes to the total. If you think Halladay gives up three somewhere, probably over the dropping number. If not, then under. Wind blowing in hard from left and a bit chilly, so we gotta think under here. Arizona at Miami: Hmm. Arizona rested and Miami in a first game back after playing and losing in New York. That means, for me, that I will either find a way to back Arizona or find and angle in the total. Weather obviously not an issue. Saunders has has three good outing and against the Braves (who had been hot) he induced 15 ground ball outs, which is exactly what he'll need to do to win this game. However, the Fish have individually lit him up, which means before I even look at the total I know it's gotta be inflated for that reason alone. Zambrano's also had three good outings. We COULD say he's DUE, but I can't make those kind of bets. On paper he should do well and has done well against these D'backs. Huh. Looked at that total and it's the always tough NL 7.5. That does surprise me a bit, but clearly it's there for a reason. I would take some stones to play under, meaning it's probably a 3-1 game. Certainly at -130 they appear to be begging to take Miami, which is another reason I'd try to take the D-Backs. One of those games that's either a gift for the home team and I don't play it or over think it. Houston at Cincinnati: There is no chance of fading the Astros yet. Wandy has a WHIP of 1.03 and and ERA of 1.42 in case you missed it. Yeah, I know the Reds traditionally do well against LHP and with all their LHH I've struggled to understand why, but the anemic loss to the Giants might have some lingering effect here. And of course Houston is rested and smokin'. And they're STILL available at a good price. Wandy simply owns Bruce and only Votto has had any real success. I've always felt Leake was a bit over valued off that start he had, but if he's not on he can give up a ton of flyball outs, and these Astros can hit the ball. Of course, so can Leake who's perhaps the best hitting pitcher there is, so I always look to play the over in his games. At 7.5 I might and at 8 I probably wouldn't especially with the wind blowing in and a 30% chance of rain. The Astros RL is a bit pricey (-160). On second thought, I do lean to the under a bit here since Leake has been able to keep Lee off the bases and the rest of the Astros haven't seen him. Still think it's got to be the Astros, under, or both. Pittsburgh at Altanta: Obviously the instinctive thing to do is jump on the red hot Braves who are in a first game back but with a day off, but am I willing to lay -180? Of course not. Pittsburgh is 3-6 on the road, but those nine games were in SF, LA, and AZ. Hanson's only real bad start was at home against the Mets but part of that may be attributed to the fact that he'd just pitched against the Mets the week before. He has, however, had three straight 100+ pitch games, so if there was ever a time. OK, so AJ was a freak against the Cardinals and may do better in the NL without a DH, but, the few Braves that have seen him have torn him a new ass. Turner Field is not a hitters' park by any means, but at 7 with the wind blowing out slightly I might have to take my chances on that over. Not unlike the Philadelphia game, that's all going to probably depend on whether the Pirates can get ANY, and they have played to exactly three overs in fifteen games. Can't ask anyone to lay the ML with the Braves, although I'd take it into consideration personally. If it is indeed a lower scoring game the Pirates RL at -140 is an option, I suppose. OK, off to watch the draft and be back later. Lips sealed til then.
OK, off to watch the draft and be back later. Lips sealed til then.
"We'll See What Happens"
Really love your stuff! great insight!!
Intelsportsinvest Really love your stuff! great insight!!
Dave Essler dennistyler I work cheap, not well sometimes, but cheap. Tell me why I shouldn't take the NYY +1.5 (-145) tomorrow night.
I'm sorry, I can not meet that challenge.