Wednesday Thoughts and Tomorrow's News Today

Lost of day games and I have some extra time. Hope this steers someone in a good direction, as the grind continues. We are just about done for Tuesday with a couple of bigger MLB plays, and may add one or two for long term people later. We'll see what happens.

Colorado at Pittsburgh: I had originally thought I'd like the over here since McDonald is such a flyball pitcher and there's a decent breeze blowing out. However, these days game can often showcase different lineups that we might otherwise see, and especially in this case because they're playing two. I am not a big Nicasio fan so I thought perhaps the Pirates might be a play, and they may well be, but they've never seen him so edge always to pitcher at least first time through the order. Rockies pen has been horrible on the road this season while the Pirates' back end has been very good, and Colorado is 1-4 in day games. Pirates have played to TWO overs and THIRTEEN unders (prior to Tuesday night game).  I might feel better taking them (Pittsburgh) in the second game since Morton is much more of a groundball pitcher and after seeing MacDonald that may make a difference. The Pirates have seen just enough of Chacin to concern me. Who knows, maybe take the Pirates in both games and plan on a split and make a little. Both games have a total of 7.5, so clearly there is an angle there. I lean game one over and game two under.

Houston at Milwaukee: I'd have a real hard time not taking the Astros RL at -120 and don't care that Marcum is pitching. Remember that 40% of games played are one run games. Anyways, Marcum's thrown 105 pitches in both of his last starts and hasn't been unhittable by any means.  He has owned this Astros lineup, but also in both recent starts he gave up 15 flyball outs. that well could be enough to get me to think about Houston, really. But, Happ's also thrown a lot of pitches lately and these Brewers have fared pretty well against him. If Milwaukee DOES need their pen that could pose a problem, as they sport a 6.32 ERA at home this season. Remember this is a Brewer team that's still under .500, and I just don't know how you can warrant laying -190 or the RL.

Cardinals at Cubs: Well, we were fortunate to be on the Cubs the other night when they rallied for two in the ninth, but before I even look at this game I have to gulp if I take them again. Volstad's BEST game (not saying a lot) was against these Cardinal in St. Louis, and most of these Cardinal have hit him well. That might make me look at the over, but it'll be a decent number since the winds' blowing out to LF at a decent clip. Lynn's been very good this season, and beat the Cubs once already. Perhaps that was enough exposure to make the Cubs at +140 be worth a look, or the RL at worst. I just don't lay -150 on the road very often. Four of the five Cubs' wins have come in day games. Maybe when that total comes out it's a bit "Wrigley" inflated and we can look at the under. Time will tell, but I hate this game.

Philadelphia at Arizona: Wow how the mighty have fallen. When was the last time you were able to get Hamels at -110, or better yet the D-backs at home at even money with a pitcher (Cahill) that has done well against the Phillies. Pierre has four hits off of him and Thome has three, and that's 7 of the 11 they have in 57 total at bats. Yes, Cahill was roughed up last time out, but some of that may be due to the competition, as he faced the then hot-hitting Braves. The thing I don't like about Hamels in this spot is that although his numbers look solid, he' beaten the Mets and the Padres, and got hit fairly hard against the Marlins. With the D-Backs pen being quite good and Hamels probably NOT going to get lit up, I think that under 8.5 is a gift here and will quite likely play it unless I see something between now and then that changes my mind, or something happens in the Tuesday night game that changes the picture.

White Sox at Oakland: Early start time in McAfee, which is always known for "unders" given both the dimensions of the field as well as the massive amount of foul territory. I'd almost look for this to be no different, and at 7.5 I really wonder where the runs come from unless Parker is just that bad. The one thing I do have to question is when is Chris Sale's transition from the bullpen to a starter going to get him hurt. Perhaps in this game since he's thrown over 100 pitches in all three starts. Parkers' minor league stats are pretty impressive, and of course the White Sox nor anyone else has seen the kid. Clearly I am a big fan of the A's as a home dog here. Both pens have been great recently, and Chicago's hasn't allowed and earned run in a week. But, they played Seattle and Baltimore, so perhaps those numbers might be a little jaded. I still don't see how this goes over the number, either.