Monday MLB Thoughts - Free Play -Tomorrow's News Today

It's always easy to be the Monday morning QB and let hindsight do the talking, but once decisions have been made, that's the end of that. 

Pittsburgh-Colorado: I wanted to fire a premium on the under at 8 but few would have been able to get it, and quite frankly I don't see how they play the game with the weather as nasty as it is.

San Fran-NY Mets (early game): I can't touch Timmy as a -150 road favorite right now against anyone, and think that the total might be a bit inflated due to the wind pattern in Citi Field this afternoon. At 7.5 with the way these two have been hitting (or not) and given the fact that it's not all that warm (made that mistake in Detroit yesterday) I would think the pitching might negate the wind and this game stays under. In the later game (again, weather depending) I will wait for 2H of DH lineups to come out and see what the bullpens do in the first game. There is zero chance of taking the Mets (for me, anyway) against LHP right now. Duda and Davis appear lost.

St. Louis at Chicago: I know what Garcia has done and is capable of doing, but he's been a different breed on the road, and Matt Garza doesn't suck. It's always tough to back the Cubs in most any situation because they can play themselves out of a game in the field real easily. But, even the worst teams find ways to win, and given the competition (another division rival) I do like them at +100 at home. It's going to be a bit chilly and SOME wind blowing in so I just don't see the Cardinals being able to pile up run after run on Garza.

Houston at Milwaukee: Clear case of Grienke-itis for the Brewers to be that big of a favorite. Obviously I wouldn't lay that number and I do like the fact that Milwaukee hasn't seen much of Harrell. Given the fact that it's the Astros that have scored the 5th most runs versus RHP this season, there's no reason in the world not to take them +1.5 (-110) especially with a total of only seven, although it does appear it may go to 7.5. Still, that is the only play I can make in that game.

Atlanta at LA Dodgers: That's a decent price on a decent team in the Braves, going against a Dodger team that is both in it's first game back and got crushed yesterday. The Braves are the numero uno team in hitting v/LHP and are familiar with Capuano from his days with the Mets. I'd like to think that Jurrjens is bit better than he's shown, but unless and until he does I really gotta stay away from this one. Either way, it's still Braves or pass.

NYY at Texas: I took the Yankees RL at +160 a while ago. Not sure how else to look at that with the Yankees having had yesterday off. Texas also in a first game back after an extra inning affair in Detroit that saw them use up quite a few pitches for the pen. 

Boston at Minnesota: I took the Twins RL (-120). Yes, I suppose one could argue that Lester only threw a few pitches last outing and the perhaps Boston is better off AWAY from Fenway, which I can actually see. However, who the hell are they at this point to be a chalky road favorite against anyone? If the Twins themselves hadn't been coming off a road trip, this would have been an even bigger play. The Twins certainly are no stranger to Lester and have had some success in the past, and really, which bullpen do you want your money on?

Toronto at Kansas City: It's really amazing to think that the Blue Jays have only hit four home runs against LHP this season, and that the Royals have ten off of RHP and are hitting a respectable .267 against RHP. Morrow can be a different pitcher on the road, and I like the Royals chances to avoid the sweep here. The Jays are just not mashing the ball yet. Arencibia is under performing and Bautista may have peaked, and without anyone else in the lineup hitting well enough to protect him, teams are just pitching around him. I think if you took the Cubs, KC, and Twins RL, you essentially have three home teams at + or near it. You would like to think that two of three win.

Chicago at Oakland: Tough one for me. Both starters have enjoyed success against the other team and there's obviously a fair amount of history with the length of service of these pitchers. White Sox obviously hitting well right now, but Oakland is a tough stadium to score a ton of runs in. No doubt the most foul ground of any stadium in the league. Chicago the hot team having swept Seattle, but I wonder if Oakland just didn't run into Cleveland at the wrong time, since they came into that series having beaten the Angels in Anaheim. For that reason alone, I find it too easy to take the White Sox here, and perhaps passing on an easy one is what I'm doing (done that a lot this season, trying to out-think the room) but you know I like home dogs if at all possible, and in a low scoring game like the one that's expected, I'd have to take my chances.

GL.