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MLB Tuesday... Card Now Final!!!

Thread Starter MLB Tuesday... Card Now Final!!!
Jeff Scott Sports
Joined: 03/08/2008
Posts: 42561
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Had a nice showing yesterday to get back on track as I went 6-2 overall and 3-2 in my top plays. My 4 Unit totals play was an easy winner on the Over in the Texas/ Seattle game. Let's keep it going today.



TOP PLAYS

4 UNIT PLAY

Atlanta/ Houston Over 7.5: 3 things will not continue to happen. The Braves will not lose 162 games this year, their offense will not hit .164 for the year and the Houston Pitching staff will not keep up their ERA of 2.25 for much longer. Houston has been good out the gate with solid pitching and hitting, but it is also time for the Atlanta bats to wake up and they should have a good chance tonight as they face Kyle Weiland, who will make his debut for Houston, which acquired him from Boston. Weiland went 0-3 with a 7.66 ERA in seven games - five starts - in his first major league action with the Red Sox last season. Tommy Hanson has owned the astros as he has an 0.97 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them, but this Houston team is hitting very well right now, as they have hit .256 and have scored 5.2 rpg in the early going. Let's also note that a strong Atlanta pen has a 4.26 ERA in the early going as well, so unless Hanson goes all the way we should get some late runs by Houston here. Believe it or not, Minute Maid Park is a very good hitting park, but you wouldn't know it cause the Houston offense has been so bad in recent years. This year is different so far and they will find a way to scratch a few runs over the plate vs Hanson, while the Atlanta bats finally waken up and grab the rest to put this one over the total. KEY TRENDS--- HOUSTON is 25-13 OVER in home games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons and 23-9 OVER in home games after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs over the last 2 seasons.  


  

3 UNIT PLAYS

CINCINNATI -102 over St Louis: (Google News Play) I really like the Reds in this one.  Leake might seem like a sketchy play because he has a 6.97 ERA in three career starts against the Cardinals, but take him because he starts seasons extraordinarily well. In his career, he is 5-0 in nine April starts, limiting batters to just a .242 BA and .681 OPS. while posting a 3.86 ERA. The Reds have been picked ny many to with the Central Division, but so far it has been the Cards show. Cincinnati is a much better team than they have showed thus far and their strong offense is due to wake up. They should be able to do that today vs Kyle Loshe, who is just 1-2 with a 5.10 ERA in 4 career starts vs the Reds at GAB. The St louis bats have been on fire, but they can't keep that torrid pace up and that should open the door for the eds to get some revenge for Monday night.

Boston/ Toronto Over 9.5: (Added) Last year Daniel Bard was a reliever and he was 2-9 with a 3.33 ERA for the year. Now being a reliever for his career i do not expect him to go long into this one and that will then turn the ball over to the Boston pen that has a 5.87 ERA in the early going. Tonight Boston pitchers will face a Toronto team that is hitting just .188, but that number may be a bit deceiving as they have played a couple of extra inning games. This offense is still a strong bunch and should get rolling tonight vs a weak Boston staff that has an ERA of 6.75 in the early going. The Boston offense is their strength and they have scored 16 runs in their last 2 games and that should continue tonight vs Kyle Drabek. Kyle has just 2 years of major league experience and he has really struggled in his time in the majors, posting a 5.83 ERA in his starts, and in 2 meetings vs the BoSox he has allowed 12 ER in just 9 innings. The Over is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings here between these teams, while the last 10 games here have averaged 11.9 rpg.  

Chicago/ Cleveland Under 7.5: (Added)  Neither team is hitting much in the early going as Cleveland has .152 BA, while the Sox come in hitting just .221 so far. Philip Humber has struggled vs Cleveland with a 6.08 ERA in 3 starts vs them, but he shouldn't have a problem holding down this pop gun attack of Cleveland's. Should Humber get in trouble then he will turn the ball over to a pen that has just an 0.93 ERA in the early going so far. Chicago's offense has also struggled this year and it may not get much better vs Jeenmar Gomez, who has a nice 2.25 ERA in 2 career starts vs the Sox. Neither offense has really looked good this year so far and I don't expect the bats to wake up tonight as this will the 5th game in a row in which the Sox have had an Under. KEY TRENDS--- CHICAGO WHITE SOX are 23-9 UNDER in road games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons and 15-4 UNDER in road games vs. AL teams scoring 3.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.   

Kansas City -101 over OAKLAND: (Added) Coming off a huge series vs the Halos, in which they pull a couple of big upsets, the Royals were just not ready to take on the A's last night as they lost 1-0. This is an offense that is much better than that and they will wake back up tonight. Tonight they will face Graham Godfrey, who has just 4 career starts and is 1-2 with a 4.71 ERA in those starts. Opposing him will be Danny Duffy, who had a rough year, going 4-8 with a 5.64 ERA, but he did face the A's twice last year and he was 2-0 with a 3.65 ERA in the two starts. The A's offense is not that strong as they have hit .224 overall and .222 vs left-handed pitching and I just don't seem them getting on track tonight vs a pitcher who had good success vs them last year. The Royals have the better offense and better starter on the mound and will get back to winning with a solid win here.  

 



OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAYS

Detroit/ Tampa Bay Over 8.5: Matt Moore was brought up late last year and looked like a solid pitcher. Moore went 1-0 last year with a 2.89 ERA allowing nine hits and three earned runs while striking out 15 in 9.1 innings of work. He will not have an easy time in his first start of the 2012 season as he takes on a Detroit Tigers team that is just Killing the ball right now as they hit .336 and scored 26 runs in their opening series vs Boston. Tampa Bay wasn't a slouch on offense as they scored 18 runs on .296 hitting vs the Yanks over the weekend. Rick Porcello hasn't faced the Rays since 2010 and he has a 3.46 ERA vs them in 2 starts, but Comerica Park is not a place that he has pitched well in as he has a 4.59 ERA in 44 career starts here, including a 5.75 ERA in this park last year. Rick is also a slow starter with a 6.04 ERA in 14 career starts in March/ April.  This game has too much offense and not enough pitching to think that these teams can't hit at least 9 runs.  

LA DODGERS -1.5 (+100) Over Pittsburgh: The Dodgers have been impressive in their last 4 home openers as they have outscored their opposition by a 27-7 count in those games. The Dodgers have also had great success vs the Pirates at home the last 2 years as they are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs them and have outscored the Buccos by 34 runs in the process, while all six wins have come by at least 4 runs. The Buccos come in hitting just .192 in the early going and it won't get much better vs Clayton Kershaw, who has gone 5-0 with a 1.16 ERA in his last 7 starts dating back to last year. He is 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA in his career vs Pittsburgh, but with the way the Pirates are hitting I just don't seem them doing much damage vs him today. Kevin Correia did have a winning year last year (12-11), but with a high 4.79 ERA. He did finish the year with a 1-4 mark and a 7.23 ERA in his last 7 starts and is just 2-3 with a 3.99 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Dodgers. The Dodgres offense hasn't been that strong either, but they still have more offense than Pittsburgh and the much better starter on the mound and they should win this one easily. 

Arizona/ San Diego Over 6.5: (Added) What pitchers park? All of the sudden Petco park is seeing some runs and they will continue to see them tonight. Arizona comes in hitting just .253, but they did score 17 runs in the 3 game set vs a tough San Fran pitching staff. Arizona will be facing Edinson Volquez, who has now posted a 5.36 ERA in his last 7 starts, dating back to last year, after he allowed 3 ER in just 5 innings to the Dodgers in his first start this year. Edinson has also struggled with the D-Back, posting a 5.19 ERA in 3 career starts vs them. Trevor Cahil has never faced San Diego, but he does have a 4.71 ERA in his career on the raod and in 11 March/ April starts he has an ERA of 3.69, so this weak San Diego offense should get going a bit with a few runs here. Both team ERA's are over 4.00 in the early going and in a park that is now allowing runs i can easily see at least 7 runs scored in this one. 



1 UNIT PLAY

Chicago/ Cleveland Under 7.5: (Added)  Neither team is hitting much in the early going as Cleveland has .152 BA, while the Sox come in hitting just .221 so far. Philip Humber has struggled vs Cleveland with a 6.08 ERA in 3 starts vs them, but he shouldn't have a problem holding down this pop gun attack of Cleveland's. Should Humber get in trouble then he will turn the ball over to a pen that has just an 0.93 ERA in the early going so far. Chicago's offense has also struggled this year and it may not get much better vs Jeenmar Gomez, who has a nice 2.25 ERA in 2 career starts vs the Sox. Neither offense has really looked good this year so far and I don't expect the bats to wake up tonight as this will the 5th game in a row in which the Sox have had an Under. KEY TRENDS--- CHICAGO WHITE SOX are 23-9 UNDER in road games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons and 15-4 UNDER in road games vs. AL teams scoring 3.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.   

  



[edited by: Jeff Scott Sports at 12:13 PM (GMT -7) on Tue, Apr 10 2012]

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Doughboy
Joined: 03/05/2007
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                          Jeff, Great selection

                       Love Tigers over 4 runs !

                                   



[edited by: Doughboy at 6:30 AM (GMT -7) on Tue, Apr 10 2012]

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                       

                                 I consider myself lucky because I win more often than I lose!

                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Denver Money
Joined: 10/21/2007
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Best of luck today Jeff. I was looking real hard at the over in this game, but the more I looked at the game the more I like the Tigers side

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Jeff Scott Sports
Joined: 03/08/2008
Posts: 42561
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Thanks doughboy. Much appreciated. Detroit should easily hit 5 runs in this one.

Thanks DM. It's funny cause I would looking hard at the Detroit but Porcello is just 4-7 with a 6.04 ERA in March/ April, and with the way Detroit is scoring I saw the Over was the better play. BOL to you today

"Challenge yourself with something you know you could never do, and what you’ll find is that you can overcome anything."


There may be people that have more talent than you, but there's no excuse for anyone to work harder than you do.



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breaKeveN
Joined: 04/24/2009
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Keep Crushin' JSS! All the best buddy Beer

MLB 2012 Team Totals: (15-6-1) + 10.05 units 

  • 1 Star plays: (6-0-0) + 6.00 units 
  • 1.5 Star plays: (1-0-0) +1.50 units 
  • 2 Star plays: (5-4-0) +1.40 units 
  • 3 Star plays: (1-2-1) - 4.50 units 
  • 4 Star plays (1-0-0) + 4.00 units 

MLB 2012 (other than team totals): (2-5-0) -7.35 units 
MLB 2011 Team Totals:(5-7-1) -8.40 units 
MLB 2010 Team Totals: (39-20-3) +26.85 units 
ljyankee4
Joined: 01/03/2012
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GL Jeff throughout the afternoon

Jeff Scott Sports
Joined: 03/08/2008
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Thanks Breakeven and LJ. BOL to you both as well.

"Challenge yourself with something you know you could never do, and what you’ll find is that you can overcome anything."


There may be people that have more talent than you, but there's no excuse for anyone to work harder than you do.



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No Limit
Joined: 10/19/2009
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Good luck today jeff.

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Jester0245
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BOL today man!

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Jeff Scott Sports
Joined: 03/08/2008
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Thanks NL and Jester. BOL to you both as well.

"Challenge yourself with something you know you could never do, and what you’ll find is that you can overcome anything."


There may be people that have more talent than you, but there's no excuse for anyone to work harder than you do.



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