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Oh my....Please go bet this

Thread Starter Oh my....Please go bet this
Lloyd Christmas
Joined: 07/22/2009
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Total Extra Inning World Series games UNDER 1.5 (-150)  4*  Sportsbook

Sportsbook has once against lost their binomial calculator and put up this silly prop. 

All baseball games go into extra inning approx. 8.8% of the time

Yes, World Series games involve teams with closer skill sets, which is more likely to produce extra inning games

But if we use what has the lowest odds if you wanted to bet what game the world series would end on (6) then there would have to be a 22% chance of each game reaching extra's in order for this to not be at least break even.  Even if it goes 7 it would only drop to 19%.

Most runs scored by a team in one game: OVER 9 (-150)  2*

Most hits by a team in one game: OVER 12 (-140)  2*



[edited by: Lloyd Christmas at 3:23 PM (GMT -7) on Wed, Oct 19 2011]

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a pain, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice 

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

SleepyWeasel
Joined: 06/23/2011
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Nice.  It's up to -180 now, which is still break even at ~17.5% per game assumming worst case 7 game series. I imagine this is at -200 soon.  A rough estimate I'd say 11-12% is probably a more appropriate number for whether a world series game will go extra innings. I'm sure someone could find out historically what it's been.

rfettig
Joined: 03/20/2010
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bad bet...

source:

mlb.mlb.com/.../print.jsp

55 games in world series history have went into extra innings,    game 7  - only 4..so of 105 years or so and say an average of 6 games--thats 630 games with only 55 goign into extra innings...so for 1 to go into exta thats a 1 in ten probability ...for 2...1 in 10 times 1 in 10 or 1%.  nots soemthign id wager on

RutgerRot214
Joined: 04/23/2011
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I am looking but currently my book doesn't have it.  Great thread!  Thanks.....good logic

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
CBB0100.00-110.00
CFB55050.00-35.00
NFL138061.90425.00
SleepyWeasel
Joined: 06/23/2011
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refttig thanks for the link. We can actually use that to see that this bet is even better as it does seem that the odds of a game going into extra innings is approximately 9-10% even for the world series (since I'm not totally sure exactly how many games were played but somewhere in the 550-650 range seems right).

First off remember, Llyod wants you to go under 1.5 games. So if it really was 1/10 *1/10 for 1% chance, we'd have a 99% chance of winning the bet.  However doing the math like that is not accurate. .10 * .10 would be the odds that the first game and the 2nd game go extra innings.  What we're looking for is the probability that any 2 games go extra innings assumming (worst case) 7 games are played. To do this you need to use a cumulative binomial probability.  A quick google search provides a calculator stattrek.com/.../binomial.aspx

If we assume worst cases all around, 10% chance on average and this game goes 7. We find that 2 or more extra innings games will happen ~15% of the time so we will win this bet 85% of the time (in reality more, as we're assumming 7 game series). -150 only needs to hit 60% of the time to break even, so Lloyd has come up with a great +EV bet here.

rfettig
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no--its 1/10 for any one game not the first two games...if you have a population of 600 games and 55 or lets round it to 60 to make the math easy --any one game of ten will go extra innings.  to have any  two games go extra innings its 1% regardless if its game one two or up to 7. this is a bet i would NOT make. but its your money if somehow you've convinced yourself that 15% of the time 2 games of 7 will go extra innings..well than ..thats why they call it gambling..    

but think of it this way if the series were 10 games in duration (and based on historical results)  1 would likely go extra innings..if you had 100 games..10 would go extra innings...(for 60 of 600 to be true it has to be ten of 100) To get 2 of 7...when its 2 of 20...(2of 20=10 of 100=60 of 600)  well its NOT 10% and it certainly isnt 15%....regardless of the payouts.

beantownrider
Joined: 02/03/2011
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Hes betting the UNDER 1.5 games will go to extra innings... Not the OVER........

Follow @gametimesports3

SleepyWeasel
Joined: 06/23/2011
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I wish sportsbook gave you -150 odds on bets that were 99% likely to win. But alas...

runner91
Joined: 10/10/2011
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lol this line moved to -250.

thanks for calling out the value.  I got in at -200 where there is still strong value (didnt know they capped props at $200?)

Ive found a lot of value recently in some props.

I posted about getting laid +120 to bet that Calvin Johnson would NOT score a TD in the FIRST HALF at last week's game.  How sick is that?  The proper line is probably -160 for that play.

Props are definately not always sucker bets even if you have to lay -115 baseline, just some basic math can make you dollars.

rfettig
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well actualy - the math on this isnt as simple as one would tend to think-...we have to look at how many extra innning games each of these teams have played THIS season against SIMILAR teams.  st louis had 21 extra inning games during the season...or about 1 in 7.75, texas had 9 of 162 or about 1 in 18.  In post season texas has had 2 extra inning games  out of 9--st louis none of 11.  now again the key is against SIMILAR teams pitching batting home or away - etc the numbers become more interesting.....will look into it deeper..my point is any bet on faulty statistics is bad...under or over.. gut feel it should be under 2 games.  SHOULD be.

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