We continue to be on a roll, cashed our two biggest bets yesterday including a nice Braves win to conclude a great weekend for those on the package. Firing again Tuesday. Free play when I figure out what it is - and the rest of the games when I finish them.
Seattle/Colorado: The Mariner's bullpen has all of a sudden found themselves, and I'd like to think they can win in Colorado again, but even after yesterday's win they're 10-20 on the road. The Rockies are 10-5 against lefties. Tyler Anderson has been great at keeping the ball down, he's very good at home, and quite tough on left-handed hitters. Miranda has been feast or famine this season, lately feast, so I am hesitant to go to that well again. It's Colorado or nothing, and a reasonably solid lean to the under.
Houston/Minnesota: We all know what the Astros did Monday, and to be honest if Berrios can't give the Twins seven innings I think they'll do it again. The problem their is Fiers - who is a fly ball pitcher that's struggling. It's going to be in the upper 50's there, with a decent breeze out to right - so it's back to being all about Berrios, even if we're looking at a total.I think the Twins score first - whether they can score enough to stave off the bullpen is the key, so F5 under is a solid bet.
Yankees/Orioles: Neither team could hit with Bundy/Montgomery pitching, now it's Tillman and Severino. I don't care for either one, and the bettors care for Tillman less, installing the Yankees as solid road favorites. That's probably for a reason, but Severino might be over valued off the great start against the Royals. He throw too many pitches for my liking, and if history is any indicator the last time that happened he was torched by the Astros. It might be easier to get behind Tillman at this point since at the very least he's kept the ball in the park, and I don't trust New Yorks' bullpen.
Boston/Chicago: I told people that I don't play on pitchers' coming off the DL, and that Price and Boston at -175 (or more) wasn't even close to right, and yet I did nothing with it myself. But, it's good to know you're seeing things well, we'll go with that. Sale against his former team, which is almost always a play-on spot - however, that (pitching against Sale) should get him amped, I would think. He's off a horrid start, hence undervalued because he can be solid and has pitched well against Boston. Pedroia is downgraded to probably being out, and given that Boston is sub .500 on the road, the White Sox RL has some value as IMO they've got the better back end right now.
Oakland/Cleveland: The Indians barely got by Oakland with Carassco against Mengden, now it's Bauer against Gray. Trevor Bauer isn't worth -165 to anyone in my opinion. Without looking too terribly far I can tell you that unless there's a cataclysmic event in the next twenty-four hours it will be Oakland or nothing, maybe first-five to eliminate the Indians' bullpen advantage.
Cubs/Padres: If the Cubs, now losers of four straight, can't beat a Padres team that flew coast-to-coast with Hendrick then one might give them even worse odds with Butler. However, he's at least been respectable if nothing else. Any full-game wager on the Cubs will involve the pen since Butler isn't accustomed to pitching more than 5-6 innings. What I do think is significant is that San Diego scored four of those runs Monday on one pitch after two singles and a HBP, I believe. Lamet was pretty sharp in his debut against the Mets, so I do look for a lower scoring game here and would not rule out the San Diego Padres, at least the RL.
Dodgers/Cardinals: The market was right to be fading Leake on Monday, especially since St. Louis just can't score right now. I've said for two years that both Wacha and Carlos Martinez threw too many pitches when they were too young, not that they're old now, but one or both are the next Tommy John candidates IMO. Wacha isn't throwing past the sixth inning and is off a high pitch-count game. These two (Maeda and Wacha) just faced off last week in LA, a game the Dodgers won 7-3 and I think that's about what's happening here again.
Washington/San Francisco: I have to wonder how much effect Harper getting plunked and the brawl has on Tuesday's game. Perhaps the most significant thing to me was that Posey didn't do anything to protect his pitcher at all. Gio has had his ups and downs and typically isn't someone I want money on, but he's off a lower taxing game and has fared pretty well against the Giants over his career. In truth I trust him to keep his emotions in check more than Samardzija, who's actually been worse at home in the big park than on the road. With Murphy back in, I like the Nationals here - perhaps that little Giants' run was smoke and mirrors, some of which was against weaker teams, too.
Arizona/Pittsburgh: The Pirates were another one I threw out as a solid lean on Monday but didn't formally add. Nova appears to be showing some cracks lately, and he's not striking people out. Ray has had two two-hit shutouts, but against the Padres and Brewers - three starts ago the Pirates hit him pretty hard, but with Polanco out that does at least change the order around. He hasn't been hitting and hasn't done anything against Ray that would raise any concerns. The market opened Arizona as favorites, but I've seen some Pittsburgh money lately. What I think is that we'll see more runs than the posted total since we'll have a very good weather pattern for that.
Brewers/Mets: I would have been wrong thinking that it would have been the Brewers with Garza or nothing on Monday. So, good no-call there. Sometimes that's as good as a win. In spite of Davies' lack of bettor love, the Brewers have won six of his last seven starts, although he has received very good run support, and in a vary limited sample size the Mets haven't done much with him. Pill was very good in Las Vegas (AAA) this season, at least at keeping the ball in the park, but I have to wonder how deep he can pitch, period. The Mets bullpen appears to be in slightly better form here, so if the lack of familiarity with Pill helps at all, he might get through the order a couple of times, so lean Mets and perhaps under.