Happy Memorial Day everyone! I will be visiting the cemetery in the morning, so I am writing this Sunday night. First, recapping my Sunday action, I was 1-3, with all 3 losses coming on my totals (all 3 were Unders that went Over) and my one side play winning (Rays). For the day, I was down 2.15 units on the day. For the Monday card, there is a lot that I like, and I will start off with this play:
Dodgers ML -110 On the surface, the pitching match-up looks like a mismatch that favors St Louis, but as I dig deeper, I really like the Dodgers. First, Mike Leake is having a good year. He is 5-2 with a 1.91 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP and opponents are batting just .210 against him. And to top that off, in his last start Leake shut down the Dodgers in a 6-1 St Louis win. Further, St Louis averages a shade over 5 runs per game in day games (this is 1:15 CT start). The Dodgers counter with Rich Hill, who was terrible last week vs St Louis. So why are the Dodgers favored here? This looks like a line that is designed to suck in lots of St Louis Cardinals money. And those sportsbooks don't beg you to take the side they think will cover. So why do I like the Dodgers?
1. This is a pitching rematch from last week, in which one pitcher was excellent and one was awful. When you get a rematch less than a week later, I often expect the opposite result. Why? The batters for the Dodgers will adjust after having seen him recently, and the pitcher (Rich Hill) will also make adjustments. I expect to see more adjustments from the Dodgers hitters than the Cardinals hitters. Do I expect to see Rich Hill walk 7 batters in 4 innings tomorrow? No. I am concerned about his walks as that has been a problem throughout his career, but after last week, I expect to see sharper control.
2. The Cardinals are back to their old ways of struggling to hit left handed pitching. While the Cards hit .255 as a team, they are only .234 vs lefties. The Cards roster only hits .200 vs Hill.
3. These teams are going in opposite directions. Dodgers have won 9 of their last 11, Cards have lost 8 of their last 11. St Louis has scored 38 runs in those last 11 games (3.4 runs per game), and are coming off a 3 game series in hitter friendly Coors Field where they scored just 7 runs. The Dodgers have 60 runs in their last 11 games (5.4 RPG), and scored at least 4 runs in 9 of those 11.
4. The Cards have scored 5.1 runs per game in day games. That's impressive, but the Dodgers have scored 5.7 runs in day games.
5. The Dodgers have a slightly better bullpen.
Overall, I do expect to see a low scoring game because Mike Leake has been very effective, and Rich Hill will bounce back. But the Dodgers have too much firepower vs the Cards, the Dodgers are playing better baseball, and with the Cards returning home from a long road trip, I like the situation for the Dodgers. Money on LA.
Tigers ML -102
Brewers ML +128 I also like the Over in this game.
Blue Jays RL +100
Braves ML +113
Best of luck today everyone!